powderfreak

We are getting destroyed on overnight mins in the radiational spots up here. Average summer lows of like 52-54F just getting torched. If dews aren’t in the 50s, we are going to put up big departures. BTV is +1.6 without radiational cooling baked in.

+3.1 here.

Every single time it rains now, lol. The latest WPC Heavy Rain disco… always “above the 90th percentile” and “flash flooding possible”. Areas affected...eastern Upstate New York, western New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 191637Z - 192230Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across Upstate New York and western New England this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Short term training of 1-2+"/hr rates will create corridors of 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. This could produce flash flooding. <snip> Some of this TCu is starting to exhibit glaciation as noted in the GOES-E day cloud phase RGB, resulting in a steady expansion of lightning cast probabilities above 25%. The 12Z U/A soundings from KALB and KOKX both measured PWs above the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology, with elevated freezing levels supporting efficient warm-rain processes. Into these impressive thermodynamics, forcing for ascent is slowly intensifying through convergence ahead of the cold front, increasing upper diffluence, and height falls downstream of the parent longwave trough and accompanying shortwave impulse.

It’s staggering how many scenes like this we’ve seen as a region the past couple warm seasons.

Thats what we’ve been saying up in VT too… can’t keep pumping climo max PWATS into the mountains and not expect the occasional devastating flash flood event.

It’s going to keep happening too. As long as high PWAT humid air continues to funnel into the NE with higher regularity. A frontal boundary causing stalled convergence is all that is needed in high moisture-rich environments. Getting 6-8”+ in county zones, with acute waterboarding footprints… this is certainly within the realm of possibilities. The margin for error increases rapidly the higher the moisture levels.

We saw it here… flooding washes so much stuff out into the waterways. Oil, gas, septic, trash. Flood waters are gnarly when they impact highly inhabited places.

I know plenty of people make very poor driving decisions, and this is likely that... but I bet that water came up really fast. Not 10 seconds but sometimes something that seems small can get out of hand in a hurry. Especially if on a road and getting pinched, you might risk going before it gets worse... and I bet this escalated real fast at some point. Hit the tipping point and all hell breaks lose with water.

I was thinking about that one too as another high end localized water dump.

Yeah we saw it a couple weeks ago… no model had 8+” falling in Saint Johnsbury and NEK in 4 hours. The footprint size on that event looks very similar to this one. A county, maybe county and a half? I mean I’d be super impressed if the models started nailing these. Good luck with that though.

It’s just such a small footprint in the grand scheme of things from a modeling standpoint. There were signs there but if you were looking for the GFS and EURO to put a 5-10 spot over one county, not happening. Hopefully someone can pull a foot.

I mean, it’s an extreme mesoscale event about the size of a county. Thats asking a lot from models on that scale. If the entire state of CT was getting 5-10”, yeah that’s a problem… we’ve seen a lot of these small footprint uber-extreme rainfall events the past few years. This one is just hitting a very highly populated area too.

What old school techniques would you have used to forecast this event? Sometimes things just happen but our culture today is always looking for something or someone to blame.

That’s an awesome cross section. Thanks for that.

Today felt worse than yesterday. ASOS registering 7sm vis, so while bad, not close to last summer’s 2sm. Certainly enough for the public to notice and be the talk of the town.

It’s crazy to me that you can just stare into the sun with the naked eye with this smoke. Not sure if you should but not immediately blinded lol. Since I know it’s usually a topic… no post processing there but I did take the photo a stop down below what normally would be called for to limit the light entering the lens and make the sun really pop (but landscape gets darker). Basically under-exposed it slightly. Used the camera settings to my advantage instead of just shooting and then altering it later on the computer.

The past couple days have been wild. Just blood orange sun amid the dark haze. Tonight here…

It is that time of year. The fantasy land blue shading at 850mb. Occasionally the Day 15 progs start showing the results of decreasing sun angle and southward migration of gradients. Obviously this outcome isn’t happening, it changes wildly every 6 hours... but it does start to show the seasonal progression as the calendar continues to move forward. We are at the warm season's version of "The February sun is starting to warm car interiors” right now.

Who installs A/C units in early April again?

No they are actually smaller… like house fly size. We bailed on the dog walk. They looked like flying ants, that type of body. Some were bigger than others though which was odd. Like twice as big.

In your clothing, in your ears, face and hair. This is wild. Millions. No idea what they are. It’s a lot. Wish I could post the video.

We are 79/61 with ++Insects. Visibility is reduced in heavy, heavy bugs.

The GFS is a lot of frontal passages over the next two weeks. The Euro doesn’t look much different. There will be periods of higher humidity ahead of the FROPAs and drier air masses behind them. Its a change towards normal from the Mississippi swamp conditions that seemed to persist for over a month.

Beautiful afternoon in these parts. Smoke seemed to move on after some morning haze. 79/57 COC.

Ha, we are +3.2 for August right now. But interesting pattern change in there from sustained +10s to near normal. Wild that such a swing can only get temps down to within a few degrees of normal (on either side).