nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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18z GEFS flips heights AN in the AO/NAO domains right before the new year and continues to build from there through the end of the run. Pacific evolving but not quite there yet at the end of the run.
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Cue the ‘this feels like the winter where the great pattern never gets here and we don’t see another 1” of snow until 2020.’
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That’s scary NPZ...glad you and the family are safe. I’m sure it was very frightening as it was all happening. Another reason why people should never go to malls
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Mid March at the verrrrry latest.
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WWA posted for the mountains for 3-5” of snow. Great upslope conditions. I’ll be there after Christmas through New Years...hopefully can score some snow while I’m skiing.
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I’d be shocked at this point if we don’t get a solid period of -NAO in Jan/Feb. Too much guidance out there consistently pointing to that.
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Hopefully just convective feedback.
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63 with a sun shower. Is it April?
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Could you (or someone else) help explain how to read that? If I’m reading it correctly, we’re currently in Phase 5 (red line correlates to the date) and the yellow lines are the ensemble members view of where we’re heading? Grey is the spread?
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You are a treasure trove of information!
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There’s a difference between asking questions to learn and peppering every LR thread with 3-4 posts per page with finding the one potential thing that could “go wrong” in a pattern and singling that out. They don’t seem to be questions to learn...they seem to be panic posts.
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Based on what I’ve seen so far, seems like 1-2” is the consensus so far. Won’t be as wet as last weekend (yay!).
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We need 29 degrees and 82% humidity. Anything else and its rain. Oh, and DPs of 75 would help with the moisture too.
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No doubt. We need a list of things to break our way to get a snowstorm here in the Mid-Atlantic and a favorable pattern doesn't automatically equal snow here. But with that said, the pattern advertised by the weeklies, seasonal forecasts, etc in January and February increases the chances to above average for snow. I find it hard to believe *if* that advertised pattern happens, we'd be shut out.
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Certainly doesn’t seem a shortage of strong lows and moisture laden storms. Keep that up when the pattern flips and it’ll be busy in here. Storm mode for weeks. Ha
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Mood quickly changed in here after the weeklies and FV3. Drink up, it'll be a long two weeks of mood changes and panic.
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I've actually never seen the pink intensity colors for snow over us on TT. Fun to look at and imagine.
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That's exactly what I'm thinking, too. Early signs of the progression to a favorable pattern is now appearing...makes sense given we're now in the first days of January on these LR ensembles.
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That's remarkable. I wish there was a chance for you to make a run for 100"
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@frd that look right there is about as good as it gets. It'll be busy in here in January and February with that blocking, -PNA, and lower heights along the EC (and low heights in the 50/50 region). Game on.
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Reading experts in other sub forums seems to reinforce the notion we get into a favorable pattern in Jan. I’m sure the first or second threat will miss us but I feel very confident we’ll see our chances.
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I think we should close the MR/LR thread and reopen it on Jan 1.
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CMC did well...Euro laid an egg. Changing of the guard? Lol
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3.6” here...pretty remarkable for December. Maybe we can time the STJ with cold in January or February...
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Broncos field looks as bad as Fedex usually does.
