nj2va

Maybe its the optimist in me, but unless I’m reading it wrong, I don’t think the GEFS is terrible especially as we get to mid month. -NAO, -AO, +PNA. Aluetian low. Need the trough off the west coast to move west I’d think (?). Missing a trough over the east too. It’s not a KU look but certainly not a shutout pattern. I could be way off though so I’ll defer to Bob, PSU, etc.

Are you ready to jump?

Hope you like inland runners as the UKMET says the storm next week is yet another runner.

Well a few days ago it fluctuated between slightly negative to positive single digits and then spiked the last few days so don’t think its a trend. At least its not continuing to increase I guess. But yeah, in the past Nino years when we had a historically + SOI in December, it turned negative for January. History is on our side at least...

Today’s daily SOI is +6.64 down from the previous two days of +18.27 and +15.98. 30 day average is +9.46.

Got a surprise 0.1” of snow overnight. Nice coating on everything again.

I’m ignoring 500 maps at 384 on the ensembles. It’s all about MJO and SOI at this point.

Time for a new thread...we need it

Time to bring this home

I’ll hug this for now.

I’m actually good with this. I feel like storms hit them first after pattern flips and then we eventually get in on the goods. Seeing them get hit with digital snow is actually good IMO.

Agreed. Can you explain a bit more on the undercutting STJ? Is that what I’ve circled in black? Would it not be undercutting if the isobars were all parallel in the +PNA? Thanks for the insight.

You can see them all here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml. GEFS and CFS get us to Phase 7 in the next 7ish days...hope its right.

Exactly. I wrote a week or so ago that I’ve written off winter until 1/15 in my mind and any snow we’d get before then would be a bonus (aka thread the needle within 120 hours)...certainly hard to write off a period in winter but I was trying to set my expectations. My thinking hasn’t changed but the waiting really is testing my patience. We need the MJO to move out of the warm phases to get the PAC less hostile and get rid of the pac puke air mass. I think we get there but it’ll be ugly in here until then. ETA: Today’s CFS and GEFS MJO forecasts gets us to phase 7 in about 7 days. If it does happen within a 7-10 day window, it’d coincide well with a pattern flip on the magical unicorn Jan 15.

@donsutherland1 has a great post over at 33andrain, quoted below:. Btw $5 to the first person to quote this long azz post for Leesburg

Best snowfall mean I’ve seen recently on the GEFS. 4” touching NW DC. ETA: through the end of the run

It really would. We spent 10 days tracking the early December near miss and I had two flurries to show for it in a much less hostile setup. This could ‘sneak’ up on us with a less than ideal setup, marginal air mass, and thread the needle precip situation. Getting us primed for our 4 HECS starting Jan 15.

Happy to be tracking something besides pattern changes and 384HR 500 maps.

https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ It will show GFS on there but its actually the FV3.

The best part of the GFS is that if you don’t like the OP just look to the FV3 which seems to be the snowier brother to the OP. Wonky NCEP maps show precip getting to DC with 850s below 0. Waiting on TT to see just how much...

GFS is a miss. Need the s/w to eject a bit quicker IMO.

00z CMC is a hit for next week. Surface and 850s below 0 DC and west. Waiting for the better TT maps.

12z GEFS may be rock bottom (and I don’t think it was right either). Snowfall means improved on the 18z GEFS by an 1”+ vs 12z in DC. At least its something.

Lol. The latter.

At least its something to track even if verbatim GFS is right at a sloppy inch or so for DC. Hold us over until the 15th.