nj2va

No, nowhere near as much as Carroll.

I hope the Cowboys win. Carroll is a tool

I had dinner at Chesapeake & Maine back in June when I was in Rehoboth for a week with some friends...really great place. Loved the vibe of it and had a great beer selection.

Don’t see snow maps but total QPF is about 1.8-1.9” so 18-22” with ratios.

Probably belongs in banter or the digital snow thread but the CFS has a 977 low east of Ocean City on the 19th. CCB over the area. Lol. Actually coincides with FV3 and EPS signal. If only Mitch still posted here...

+1 to NorthArlington...gotta say the wind storm. I was in Deep Creek so missed the impact here but it was intense out there with some snow too.

You worry too much. Everything is coming along just fine. Confidence is pretty high that we see the much advertised pattern change...obviously patterns don’t 100% mean snow but its hard to imagine a shutout in the advertised LR patterns, especially when looking at the monthlies. And yes, I know we should roll our eyes at the skills of models past two weeks but the weeklies have been consistently showing a pretty epic pattern setting in, and now the ensembles are picking up on that pattern beginning to take shape.

Thanks, that was my thinking too but good to get some confirmation.

Serious question...do we ever want to see a huge negative departure on the ensembles over us at LR? That far into the future, wouldn’t that signal very anamolous cold which likely wouldn’t be stormy? I also find the temperature anamoly maps in the LR to not be a good indicator of what to expect....H5 is a better predictor I think but curious what PSU and others think.

Sure does seem the -NAO wants to be a consistent feature on the LR guidance. lines up well with the weeklies, monthlies, and seasonal forecasts for end of Jan and February.

It’s a day off but EPS has a signal for a coastal a day or so later.

Nw Baltimore wx and I gotta join you on one of your Rehoboth brewpub trips.

I’ve missed the blues over us. Also, signs of a great pattern are fantasy day blizzards. It’s happening.

Exactly. And the PAC is still pretty progressive at this point so I imagine the models will have a hard time until we’re under 100 hours.

Looks like some phasing is going on at 162 if I’m reading the Vort panels right.

Impressive start for Luck and the Colts

That’s an impressive signal on a MSLP normalized anomaly map for 15 days out. Ninja’d by LP08

Weenie handbook says Euro handles SS vorts better than NS vorts so we ignore its depiction of the NS.

Miller Bs re-cancel winter ;)

So much potential with the setup on the Euro. And it’s within 10 days!

EPS has also liked this date for a coastal. That’s a nice panel you showed.

Sun!

Not even worth trying.

Another positive (pun intended) is that the positive heights which had been showing up over the east on the GEFS aren’t persistent in the LR.

Always fun to see purples building near GL even if on a 384H OP.