nj2va

Looks like some phasing is going on at 162 if I’m reading the Vort panels right.

Impressive start for Luck and the Colts

That’s an impressive signal on a MSLP normalized anomaly map for 15 days out. Ninja’d by LP08

Weenie handbook says Euro handles SS vorts better than NS vorts so we ignore its depiction of the NS.

Miller Bs re-cancel winter ;)

So much potential with the setup on the Euro. And it’s within 10 days!

EPS has also liked this date for a coastal. That’s a nice panel you showed.

Sun!

Not even worth trying.

Another positive (pun intended) is that the positive heights which had been showing up over the east on the GEFS aren’t persistent in the LR.

Always fun to see purples building near GL even if on a 384H OP.

I read somewhere (can’t remember where) that the BOMM has actually been doing well with the MJO forecast, which this supports. Agree with the last few posts that the ongoing decline/persistent negative SOI coupled with the MJO push into 7/8/COD would be great for us. The atmosphere can do its thing.

Absolutely. With a season (and playoffs) as long as it is, no team will stay hot the entire season. We’re just coming off a hot streak from Nov/Dec. As you said, its honestly about playing your best and finding your stride at the right time. One of the best things about the Caps winning last year is that it introduced hockey to a whole new market of people that never really watched...now most of those will just be bandwagon/casual fans but hopefully the appeal of hockey in DC continues to grow. Redskins (eye roll) continue to dominate sports talk, etc but its gotten less and less over the years. I got into hockey when I moved to DC over 10 years ago and became an instant Caps fan and my passion for hockey has grown ever since. Just in those ten years, so many ups and downs of emotions as a Caps fan...which will continue.

@yoda gotta hand it to the Pens...they’re playing lights out right now. Hockey is one of those streaky sports where teams will have their ebbs and flows. Right now the Pens are red hot. Caps are playing flat and messy although their 3rd period last night was one of their best periods in a while.

Next weekend is a long shot but certainly something trackable and could trend in our favor which was my point. It’d be a bonus going into the pattern change. Analyzing the GGEM OP at 200 hours isn’t worth it.

I haven’t seen the CMC but was talking the GFS.

Completely agree. It has my attention and while the GFS continues to be NS dominant, I thought this run took a step towards the Euro showing a SS idea. Something to track even if its convoluted and difficult.

Signal on the EPS for a coastal on the 19/20 too. If next weekend doesn’t work out, looks like that’s another window to track.

Ehh, lets get the change and go from there. I’d wager we aren’t waiting long for our first frozen event once the pattern flips.

18z GEFS agrees with the EPS and starts building heights into AK ~D9. And we have this look by the 18th...low heights forming over the east. Building -NAO. PV dropping down. Look out.

An OP at 384 2m temp map seems like a good thing to base a forecast on.

That’s usually how we roll here too. Pattern changes and we miss the first event and then its on.

You can bet on complaining from worry worts and the debs. “I’m only getting 7” and a place NW of me that averages 25% more is getting 10”...waaaah”

We’re about to have a PV family reunion over NA... No doubt huge changes over the last 24-36 hours...as PSU pointed out, I think we’ve turned the corner.

Your call for a quicker flip looks to be a good one. EPS starts flipping the PAC at D9 on the 12z. #within10days