nj2va

EPS has an impressive cold outbreak in the east at the end of next week.

Euro doubles my seasonal total heading into a major pattern change. I’d gladly take that. This place is a hoot.

Good news for the mountains/ski resorts. Euro and GFS starting to honk the potential for upslope mid next week.

I’d wager January is not a shutout as some were predicting the last few days.

Exactly. This has actually been a sucky way to be warm. Overcast days in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Rainstorms in the 40s. It’s not like its been 65 and sunny.

I’ve been thinking the pattern flip will be quite sudden and that guidance shows exactly how it could happen. I don’t think this is going to be a 3 week gradual pattern change but heck, what do I know especially this winter.

As Bob and pasnownut pointed out, much improved look at H5 today vs previous runs. Less ridging out in front and a flatter wave which is helping to suppress and keep it from cutting as dramatically as it was a few runs ago. Certainly something to track besides the pattern change.

Pretty dramatic shift by the GEFS with its MJO forecast today...no longer does a loop to loop in Phase 7. Slower progression through 8 then into the COD. Latest from Euro is an improvement from yesterday as it no longer re-emerges in Phase 4, just meanders in the COD. A weaker wave after Phase 8 + weak ENSO wouldn’t be a bad thing.

I’ve been the annoying backseat driver on the bus with you and CAPE driving.

I hear you. This must be what it feels like to be a Redskins fan...tracking the elusive good year for the Skins.

I just watched an entire DT video for the first time (and it was actually good). And I learned how to read those SSW wind reversal forecasts. Anyways, he ended his video comparing this winter to 2009-2010 in terms of the timing between the December storm in 2009 and the Jan 2010 event (40+ days) as well as the upper level patterns of Jan 2010 to this January. I’m not saying this will be a repeat of 2010 and no two winters are alike but 09-10 did feature quite the boring, PAC puke period too. Only difference is we missed out on a December WSW storm by less than 50 miles.

Deb/Bob absent from the LR thread this AM....he must be pouting.

Ok

Always appreciate your thoughts and insight especially as I browse the NE subforum. The weenies will wake up tomorrow and rush for the cliff after seeing your posts lol

@Scraff that 3rd period was worse than the PAC vomit pattern. They are playing so flat right now. Hockey is ebbs and flows...they’re coming off an incredibly hot period. They’ll get their mojo back. We’re still in 1st and have one less game played by 2nd place.

Something I like seeing (which is another indicator of a potential pattern change) is the 0.5” line is down in northern AL/MS on the 18z GEFS. Especially when that was over us for many runs.

Jan 20th pattern change happened when Ovi scored.

Yep, totally agree. As WxUSAF noted above, I’d now like to see this timing stay firm so we can get this under 14 days, 10, 7, etc.

Ah, Weathermodels is so darn confusing I actually thought that was it. I see it posted above.

Maybe this is wishcasting but the 12z EPS seems headed in that direction to fit in well with the weeklies timing per the tweet from WxUSAF above.

Another encouraging sign...AN heights no longer over us towards the end of the 18z GEFS.

Look above...do you see it in my post?

The weeklies 45 day snowfall map is NSFW.

I’m riding this flip til I’m either taking a walk through 25 degree temps with heavy fatties rippin, beer in hand...or taking a walk on Feb 2 while its 75 with a margarita in my hand.

I actually think the flip will come pretty fast whenever we get it, so yes I think it’s possible. Do I think this exact timing will happen if the date of the flip? Not sure.