nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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What’s interesting is that the pieces that start shifting the PAC pattern show up next week on the GEFS. It seems like a small ridge forms north of AK early next week which is the first domino to fall that then builds into the AO domain while ridging also subsequently builds on the west coast. If GEFS is right, that feature isn’t fantasy land.
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Can we phone a friend and ask George Washington?
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GEFS doesn’t blink and looks great. Quite the model war.
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I noticed that but I’m not sure I put much faith in its forecast of the MJO past a week, if even that long. But if its heads for the COD from Phase 8, would it matter?
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Yep, I don’t have the old ones to compare but I’m pretty sure its been increasing the amplitude as well.
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Latest Euro forecast for MJO travels through 6-7-8 before getting into COD. It’s been correcting over the past week and pushing the COD further down the road.
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From NE...hopefully this is it.
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I wish I could like this post multiple times.
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You bring up a great point. I keep pointing to MJO and SOI as driving this since they are behaving like a Nina but this is a late blooming Nino which would dictate a later flip than normal. I still think we have a solid period of active tracking with AN snowfall...earlier the flip the better obviously. Maybe instead of the 15th it’s a week-10 days later.
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Happy New Year y’all!
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Euro’s continued mishandling of the MJO throws caution to the wind with relying on the LR EPS. That view seems backed up by some pros too.
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37 degrees and 0.15” so far. Wind advisory here tonight for gusts up to 45 mph. Wind, woo.
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I forgot what a H north of us with SLP nearby looks like. Trough went negative too quickly therefore the cut to Chicago. Certainly potential with this one.
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CMC is a light overrunning/SW flow event for the 9th..looks like an inch or two.
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Thank goodness another football season in DC is done...attention can and should turn to the only winning team in DC, the caps.
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EPS has been pretty bad with the MJO honestly. Keeps correcting as time goes on.
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Was just about to post the same thing. Quite the reversal from a few days ago.
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Speaking of, Birdbox on Netflix was so so good. I hope there’s a sequel or something.
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Unfortunately the Eagles are back in the playoffs.
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Something to keep an eye on.
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Forced to watch the Steelers here...ugh.
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Seems EPS is saying the 9th-11th is a potential window. About 1.5” on the snowfall means for that period.
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I’m still holding strong to the 1/15-1/20 call for things to improve. Euro is off with the MJO as I don’t think it gets into the COD which seems to be driving the LR guidance now.. Just gotta be patient. And if I’m wrong, I’m wrong...always next year.
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We’ll have a SSW right over us so we’re in the 90s by March 1.
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Sure is frustrating. I wonder if its the MJO driving the lack of the trough in the east? Get it to Phase 8 and we’d see the heights respond along the EC? It seems the SOI and MJO are the story of winter so far.
