nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I remember how quickly the Euro flipped from a SECS-y pattern to PAC vomit for end of December into January (and hasn’t looked back). I honestly could see a similar quick flip happen the other way given the state of the atmosphere this winter. I’m still hopeful for back end of January into February. My thinking hasn’t changed, just shifted by a few days.
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My Vort 101 handbook says a quadruple closed 500H low passing south of us should be snow in January. ETA: Shoot, the next chapter is titled “When the PAC vomits on your pattern” and explains the rest...
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I’m honestly more amazed at the lack of snow not only here but in NE outside of the northern tier. I’m used to DC failing but pretty amazing to see them failing too so far. I’m happy to see there’s a good signal for a significant event up there next week...could signal the real start of winter for the east.
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I’m right there with you keeping the optimism alive for the pattern change coming soon. The mood here isn’t helped by a complete shutout north of PWC since the November storm. #staystrong
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Here is the GEFS from 18z 12/26 for 00z Thursday vs the 18z run today for the same time. Actually did pretty well except for the strength/position of the SE ridge, 50/50 low, and the AO region. Handled the GL blocking and Pacific very well.
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This is where I’m at. Even if the GEFS is too rushed (which is probable), if the EPS follows the progression of the latest weeklies, we’d be back in a pattern that would allow chances after the 20th. I wrote off the first half of January before Christmas.
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It’s North America (GEFS + GEPS) vs Europe (EPS). I’m hanging my hat on the NA models being able to better handle the dynamics over NA.
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Every time it looks like the ridging wants to build in AK, it just gets beaten down. Quite the relentless PAC on the EPS. The Euro OP blinked first...maybe EPS will be next (at 00z?)
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Really encouraging run today and it’d argue we flip the switch from shutout to trackable. Hopefully EPS continues the trend...we’ll know soon.
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Euro bringing the cold into the northern plains too at the end of the run. -20 2m temps into northern MN.
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It seems the trend this winter is a slower and more amplified MJO than forecast and I have no reason to see that changing...which probably means a pattern flip timing that is a compromise between Euro and GFS is the safer call at this point.
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The crazy wind we had here in McHenry on the 31st blew off a number of shingles from the roof. We do rain and wind well here in the Mid-Atlantic. Roofing company coming today to repair.
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I’d take that. And hey if we had a stronger SE ridge for the early December storm, it would have ended up north-er.
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Nice to see the SOI continue to trend more negative. Quite the turnaround from the last few days of December.
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18z FV3 has a near miss to the south on the 15th and front end thump on the 17th. Coincides with the calls for the pattern to flip on the 15th.
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What’s interesting is that the pieces that start shifting the PAC pattern show up next week on the GEFS. It seems like a small ridge forms north of AK early next week which is the first domino to fall that then builds into the AO domain while ridging also subsequently builds on the west coast. If GEFS is right, that feature isn’t fantasy land.
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Can we phone a friend and ask George Washington?
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GEFS doesn’t blink and looks great. Quite the model war.
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I noticed that but I’m not sure I put much faith in its forecast of the MJO past a week, if even that long. But if its heads for the COD from Phase 8, would it matter?
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Yep, I don’t have the old ones to compare but I’m pretty sure its been increasing the amplitude as well.
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Latest Euro forecast for MJO travels through 6-7-8 before getting into COD. It’s been correcting over the past week and pushing the COD further down the road.
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From NE...hopefully this is it.
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I wish I could like this post multiple times.
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You bring up a great point. I keep pointing to MJO and SOI as driving this since they are behaving like a Nina but this is a late blooming Nino which would dictate a later flip than normal. I still think we have a solid period of active tracking with AN snowfall...earlier the flip the better obviously. Maybe instead of the 15th it’s a week-10 days later.
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Happy New Year y’all!
