nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I’m really itching to start tracking something beyond pattern changes.
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I also like the total period is wetter than average from the SE through the MA. Very Nino-ish.
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12z GFS should flip the moods again.
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Thanks PSU and @WxUSAF. I should mention GEFS is much more amplified than Euro with its MJO forecast and something we’d much rather see. I’m on my phone or else I’d post the current forecast.
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Latest Euro MJO forecast and guidance continues progressing towards 7/8. I’m a noob with MJO though...what does the inner circle represent? If the MJO happens as planned with the green line, does it actually skip phase 7/8 since its in the ‘inner circle’?
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Of course we can, its the mid-Atlantic. Perhaps the “hope” is based on the broad consensus of long range guidance, seasonal forecasts, and respected meteorologist predictions for the winter. Could all those prove wrong and we have a BN winter? Sure. But that seems unlikely at this point. Re: tempering expectations....good luck with that around here.
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So many times when I read your post, I think its me talking.
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Mood swing Monday... Don’t we need to progressively step up to the pattern advertised by the weeklies/seasonal forecasts? The unicorn pattern won’t just appear...it’ll be a gradual step until mid month.
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Even watching snow on a webcam is mesmerizing. Really coming down there at Canaan.
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Snowing in McHenry per my Ring cameras...wish I was there instead of wretched New Jersey.
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I will say it seems we do better when we sneak into events within 5 days vs chasing the unicorn pattern...
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That sounds lame. 4 month Euro models jumping around like a fish out of water is where its at now.
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6z FV3 is snow to ice to rain for NYD followed by a light snow event a few days later. Continues to suggest we have multiple chances the first week of the new year.
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Good effort by Tucker there...would have been an amazing FG.
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18z FV3 ice/sleet to rain for NYE. 18z GFS has a minor snow event shortly after the new year. Goes along with Bob’s theory of seeing some frozen before the mega flip.
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It’ll snow (again) this winter, just be patient. Most of the snowfall forecasts for DC (inside Beltway) were ~20-30” IIRC. That seems to be on track based on the weeklies and seasonal models.
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I like mid month for the pattern to really lock in. If we get to that point and the PAC is still meh with not much help from the Atlantic, I’ll start to get concerned. Until then, I think everything is going along to how many predicted this winter would evolve. And with that said, any snow before 1/15 is a bonus IMO.
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12Z FV3 is a cutter but we start out as ice until surface gives out.
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That’s fine...PHL/NYC still did really well in 09/10.
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Thanks for your insightful post.
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Wind make it a bit nippy going to Orangetheory this morning. I’m just happy we’re not looking at 60s for Christmas.
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@frd Cool animation...love seeing those reds over GL form (and subsequently the blues over the east coast).
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“How’s this look?” ”Huge hit on the Euro!” ”Did you call me huge?” Won’t end well...
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Hmm, comparing StormVista and Weathermodels.com EPS total snowfall from 00z (through 360H), SV shows 6” through DC while WM.com shows 2.5”. Weenie handbook says hug the snowier model. Interestingly enough, SV is usually the more conservative IRT snowfall totals.
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Oh, I’m totally with you. I am extremely confident in the blocking showing up in January...we’re seeing the step up process now and I feel good that we see a warning event in January.
