I was just about to say that we can't deny that we just keep punting threat windows and can't seem to get legit threats within 10 days. Delayed usually means denied around here but its hard for me to wrap my head around we don't at least get a warning event with that type of -NAO/50-50 look. If we don't score, then all bets are off the table with what it takes to get snow around here.
It was gorgeous watching it in my rearview mirror as I was on 70 W heading to Deep Creek.
Just got here...31 degrees and still basically have full snow cover which was surprising given the lack of fresh snow here over the last 2 weeks basically.
HRRR also did really well (at least in Deep Creek) with the December storm. In other upslope events, has done well too this winter.
I can’t comment on the long range HRRR though.
Anyone see any data recently on SST/Nina strength? DT posted something about a month ago showing some models predicting a mod Nina vs strong...hard to predict the outcomes of that but could help us in late winter. I can't remember where he pulled that from or else I'd go try to find it.
LFG.
The 28th storm is looking good so far. Nice H pressing down from Canada. Solid confluence. Big area of precip over TX blossoming.
Oof, looks like it'll be OTS..
Negativity spreads like wildfire around here and things are already smoldering this morning. If early 12z runs don’t show blue, it will be a straight up dumpster fire in every single thread.
Great catch and thanks for the explanation. And its a legit west/Baffin block too on guidance. I’ll take my chances with that any winter especially with a 50/50 that seems fairly persistent too.
Oh, sorry I was talking about the mid-Atlantic scoring. You’re too far north as the blocking will just push all the blizzards straight into this area. There’s always next year for you!!!