nj2va

Playing with fire but staying on the colder side this time. Go big or go home.

Crushing 95/West at 96

I’ll need to stop by there sometime and say hi — there are fantastic lake, Wisp, and 4th of July firework views from there.

Meanwhile, here will be CAPE

Doubtful, have you been around long?

I’m east of the fall line Oh wait, I’ll be in McHenry for this at 2,800 feet....bring on the 18z GFS you eastern folks!!!!

It feels like we’ve been treading water all day at a 96-105H start time.

Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc? Tomorrow...or 72 hours...?

Yes, as a few others pointed out it seems we traded some intensity on the EPS mean for slightly colder solution. Something that helps those on the margins.

I thought it ticked colder too - even comparing the 850 line during the height of the storm, it ticked east from cutting through central Loudoun to now cutting through the eastern part of the county. Something else I noticed is that mean QPF was cut slightly back in Deep Creek (where I’ll be riding this one out) which makes me think there are probably a few less western solutions and/or more progressive. That would translate to a better outcome for the cities. I’m hoping we all can see a warning-criteria storm.

Goodness, this area needs a snowstorm.

While the run of the GFS looks great for Deep Creek, I’d rather it move 75 miles east so it gets most of the forum in on a good storm. Judging by the mood in here, we definitely need it.

I’ve been out since noon....looks like I missed a lot.

Canadian with the beat down for 95.

Winchester could jackpot twice in a week.

Crayon Canadian maps shows a 1002 LP offshore from the Delmarva with a 1036 sprawling HP. I’d think that will be good. eta: and a 957 50/50 LP

Under 100 hours from start time for the far western/SW areas.

There’s barely even a LP in the OH valley as this gets closer in time.

Through 72, slightly better confluence looking at 500 as heights are pressing down a bit more in the NE.

Sharper, more consolidated vort for Monday’s storm. Hopefully translates into a monster 50/50.

Do you remember last winter?

Monday’s storm really blows up in the 50/50 region.

You know what time it is? ICON time!

-NAO with serious staying power on both the EPS and GEFS through the end of the run. That will help play traffic cop with the shortwaves.

Ah, good point on the orographic enhancement...we’ve had the house for 4 years and its kind of crazy this is the first big coastal since then so I need to figure out the climo specifics there during these events. Appreciate the details. It always amazes me when its sunny and 45 in Frostburg and 28 with light snow falling all day in Garrett County. Although that’s childplay compared to your new place in Randolph - your view is unreal.