nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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It always seems the 6z/18z runs of the EPS look worse for us than 0z/12z.
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I signed up for Weather Models last week and I still hate the interface as much as prior winters. It’s impossible to navigate and find maps easily. Are the Model Labs meant to be used for stuff? Although I guess on the other hand we do get 500 maps posted in the threads so I basically don’t even need it.
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It’s from all the pollen from the pending spring-like weather in a few weeks.
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Weaker primary on the GGEM and only gets it as far north as the ky/tn border. HP trending better and better too.
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H5 look has been slowly changing over the last few runs of the GFS. It’s trending more towards a broad positively titled trough. I’m not smart enough to comment but I think thats probably contributing to the lack of consolidation?
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The 2m 0c line is up in southern Canada Monday afternoon as precip is nearby on the 00z GFS.
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ICON is a brief frozen to rain deal for the mid-week threat. Coastal doesn’t take over until off the NJ/LI coast.
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Last winter saw an ice storm where about 0.5”-0.6”+ ice accreted in Garrett County..lost power for a few days.
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18z will save us
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LWX Winter Threat 7 is currently at "Yellow"/Slight for west of 95 and the mountains. I don't think outside the mountains last year had anything but Green.
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That is basically a classic look for us. Trends today with 12z have been very good.
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Here’s the NA view on the 12Z GEFS leading up to next Thursday’s potential...legit -NAO and 50/50 ish low. Nice look there.
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Definitely a signal. Hour 168 has a LP off the coast and HP across SE Canada.
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Was that after 3 bourbons? Must have been.
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GFS says head to the mountains for the 16/17 storm.
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Honestly a 10% chance of 0.25” of snow/sleet QPF for D5 for the mountains of MD and WV could probably be shown all winter long.
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I remember last winter he took long breaks and talked about needing the break to focus on other things — and honestly I thought he was getting sick of it. But maybe I’m mis-remembering.
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Would that be a clipper/NS dominated pattern if that verifies verbatim?
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Festive mood courtesy of -NAO and digital snow. Tomorrow will probably show a craptastic pattern at H750 and send the mood down the drain.
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Haven't seen a legit -NAO in forever. Congrats NC?
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I just got an email from Wisp that they are opening this Friday. @40westwx @jaydreb
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Not saying this winter is going to be a blockbuster by any means but at least so far, its vastly different than last year in that we at least have workable looks.
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There will be opportunities to chase at the very least. 6z GFS drops 12-24”+ through the run in the mountains
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GOOD CHANCE OF 1ST LIGHT SNOW EVENT VA / nw NC/ MD DEL MONDAY DEC 7
nj2va replied to DTWXRISK's topic in Mid Atlantic
RIC will probably finish the season with more than DCA.
