nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Agreed, I think that area to perhaps as far west as Hancock (depending on how tucked in the coastal is) are in the sweet spot for this for highest totals. And yeah I figure I’ll have less QPF out there but will somewhat offset with better ratios.
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6z EPS snowfall mean almost identical to 00z. 6” along or just west of 95 and increasing west from there to 8-9” in the WV panhandle/81/mountains (note: this is just for the Wed/Thursday event).
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Yeah, I think the reason the 6z gave those areas so much was due to the evolution of the 500 low...it closes off basically over the LI sound.
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Also to note, 6z GFS has precip breaking out for the SW parts of the forum within 100 hours.
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Latest LWX map....not bullish.
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This will be the first coastal that I’ll likely be out at Deep Creek...curious if the NW shield of precip is undermodeled in intensity/coverage on a model run like the 6z GFS.
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Amazing what blocking and a 50/50 low can do. I almost forgot what those are like around here.
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That’s what I was thinking for the deform snow, too. 81 and the mountains are crushed...loving this run for Deep Creek, not gonna lie.
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Updated WPC odds at Day 5 now have 95 corridor in 50% contour of 0.25”+ frozen QPF. NW of 95 is 70%. Bullish for 5 days out.
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Thanks for responding and sounds like a great upgrade.
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FWIW, Canadian has been pretty consistent for 3 runs in a row (albeit trending even better for us). I’d love to see it score a coup with these high end solutions.
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I thought I remember Bob last year talking about how GEFS were known to just follow the OP in lock step. Anyone know how the ensembles have been performing since the upgrade?
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Shouldn’t you be looking for the UKMET?
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Uh oh, NA101 beating Yoda to a model PBP. Fightin’ words
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You are setting yourself up for disappointment if 5 days out, your bar is 16”.
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Canadian looks closer to a Miller A than a hybrid.
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Just about to say...incoming based on 108. 1037 H and snow breaking out in SW/southern VA.
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Ok I think I finally got the correlation between the two threats. If Monday is amped + rainier + snow + warm wet + less amped + warm snow - less amped - more amped (squared) + snowier Monday solution = better Wednesday/Thursday solution
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Textbook mid-Atlantic setup.
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Incoming at 108
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GFS seems like rain outside the mountains, perhaps a slushy accumulation under heaviest rates for the favored spots.
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Better confluence would have negated that (verbatim)?
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It had a good winter a few years ago but since, has been pretty bad with temps.
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RGEM is snow in the mountains; rain everywhere else.
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Are we rooting for an amped/north wave for Monday for a better 50/50 setup?
