nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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That’s what I was thinking for the deform snow, too. 81 and the mountains are crushed...loving this run for Deep Creek, not gonna lie.
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Updated WPC odds at Day 5 now have 95 corridor in 50% contour of 0.25”+ frozen QPF. NW of 95 is 70%. Bullish for 5 days out.
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Thanks for responding and sounds like a great upgrade.
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FWIW, Canadian has been pretty consistent for 3 runs in a row (albeit trending even better for us). I’d love to see it score a coup with these high end solutions.
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I thought I remember Bob last year talking about how GEFS were known to just follow the OP in lock step. Anyone know how the ensembles have been performing since the upgrade?
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Shouldn’t you be looking for the UKMET?
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Uh oh, NA101 beating Yoda to a model PBP. Fightin’ words
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You are setting yourself up for disappointment if 5 days out, your bar is 16”.
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Canadian looks closer to a Miller A than a hybrid.
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Just about to say...incoming based on 108. 1037 H and snow breaking out in SW/southern VA.
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Ok I think I finally got the correlation between the two threats. If Monday is amped + rainier + snow + warm wet + less amped + warm snow - less amped - more amped (squared) + snowier Monday solution = better Wednesday/Thursday solution
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Textbook mid-Atlantic setup.
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Incoming at 108
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GFS seems like rain outside the mountains, perhaps a slushy accumulation under heaviest rates for the favored spots.
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Better confluence would have negated that (verbatim)?
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It had a good winter a few years ago but since, has been pretty bad with temps.
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RGEM is snow in the mountains; rain everywhere else.
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Are we rooting for an amped/north wave for Monday for a better 50/50 setup?
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Winchester/81/70N crowd should like the NAM.
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00z NAM might finish running by Monday.
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I’ve missed getting reminded by PSU about every fail scenario that exists.
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Eskimo Joe would approve.
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18z EPS cancelled the storm. Better find more shows to keep you busy.
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Mods, can you pin this?
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Monday disco thread:
