nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Speaking of crazy uncle Larry....
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I know we give NAM a lot of crap around here (poor thing) but it was the first to latch onto the inland track. We all laughed at it..”aw how cute look at the crazy old uncle 84H NAM doing NAM-like things...”. Even uncle Larry can be right once in a while.
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Yeah, should be good skiing conditions on Thursday/Friday with some fresh powder, I’m excited. Though I’d rather a solution that had the low just offshore to get more of the forum in on the action even if brought down totals here. It feels like we’ve been tracking this for 3 weeks....
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6z Euro tracks the low over Williamsburg - Lower Ches Bay - Up the Bay to near CAPE (too bad it’s not a Cat 4 everyone here craves) - then heads NE from there. Furthest west (on the 3 hour panels), the 850 line gets is Leesburg.
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I’d lean mesoscale models for thermals at this point. I hope Canadian is right for the cities/close in burbs but I wouldn’t put my stock, if any, in the temp depictions. Someone smarter than me can weigh in though...
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Thanks. Whoever that Ravens player who keeps dropping passes should be canned.
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I have the game on in the background but missed what happened to Jackson...injured?
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RGEM to 3k: “hold my beer. I see your 50” for camp David and give you 48” for N NJ”
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I think we’ll see a slight east tick or two tomorrow/game time. I’m hoping for 1” QPF which every model gives me (with breathing room assuming there’s tics). No one is getting 3’ from this but I wouldn’t be surprised for a very localized report of 20” especially somewhere close to the mixing line in N central MD.
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3k going bonkers on QPF. 1.8” here, 2.6” Cumberland, and lollis of 4” on the border of Washington and Frederick counties.
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They are so dumb. And then battling over the positive snow depth map vs the 10:1 vs the Kuchera blah blah blah
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Just got back from Orangetheory and looking at the Euro now. The bullseye is Hancock - Hagerstown down to Winchester....2"+ QPF. 1.4" for me
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Hey, at least we have the lowest sun angle of the year we're working with. We wouldn't need to read 650 posts about March sun.
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Go baby go. PSU, great pics...glad the kids had a blast.
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Something is off with wxbell's 18z NAM maps. It messed up the total precip too. I can guarantee that 1.2" of QPF isn't an inch of snow here.
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Close to 1.3" QPF all frozen out here. Hancock-Cumberland 1.7-1.8" of QPF. Juiced.
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Solid first guess but based on QPF trends today, they'll need to increase the mountains.
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Uh oh, Ji gets 0"
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New M1 MacBook Airs are sick....the apple-designed chips have made them super fast. I'm about to purchase one after doing some research.
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48 hours ending Friday as there’s some light snow showers in the area until then.
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Great map. And finally out of your dreaded grey mixing zone!
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The banding is starting to show up on the Euro further west, even getting a little bit of it past Cumberland. You’re in a really good spot for this.
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It’s a huge hit. Best Euro run for out here. You get smoked.
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UK is not a good model especially if trying to narrow in on precip totals, thermals, etc. Basically beyond track, I wouldn’t even look at it.
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GFS has been consistently getting wetter out here from yesterday’s runs. 18z yesterday threw 0.3” QPF here...today’s 12z (including upslope) is just shy of an 1”. 3k starting tomorrow will start to be useful to hone in on mesoscale features.
