nj2va

A bit slower on 12z vs 6z for onset...now after 19z east of HGR on the Euro.

12z Euro only 7 degrees off (high) its 1p depiction of temps here - also leaves enough precip after the front pushes through for 2” of snow tomorrow morning.

I’ve learned if I put together forcing, stratospheric, coupling, troposphere, and ENSO together in a sentence, people immediately think I have a PhD.

@losetoa6 Perhaps a preview for Friday? Low level cold taking longer to scour out here. Currently 31 and guidance had me in the mid to upper 30s by now. I am sure we’ll get into the upper 40s tonight before the front drops through the area overnight but models tend to want to rush the 2m warming in these setups.

Ji: I can see the back edge on radar already

Agree, especially for the coastal plain - but the looks are suggesting we couple some ridging with the west-based -NAO (see the EPS I posted at the end of the last page). ETA - CAPE explained it way better than me above.

The “blocking” right now is just an extension of the WAR and really isn’t legit blocking. Get a west based -NAO like every ensemble is showing ~10-12ish days from now and I just can’t see storms cutting into that block. Just my .02.

NOS NOW? Sounds ominous.

That looks like something my 4 year old nephew drew for me....can you explain that?

Stay vigilant.

Woof. Also, EPS still with a signal for a coastal low on the 11/12 on the MSLP anomaly maps.

Ugh, I’m so sorry to see this. It’s so hard to lose a family dog, even more so around the holidays (and when you aren’t there to see him again). My best to you and try to cherish all the good memories. We lost one of our dogs earlier this year...time heals but we still miss him.

I’ll take my chances with the mid-January ensemble 500 maps - that type of west-based -NAO coupled with a less hostile Pacific should provide the ingredients we need for snow in our area. Granted I’m by no means knowledgeable compared to most here but I find it hard to believe as/if the pattern evolves in January with that block and (hopefully) a better Pacific, we wouldn’t score a storm. If the Pacific continues to be hostile, I’d be less bullish near the cities.

No way we get out of January without a region-wide MECS. Then a HECS in February as the block relaxes. Mark yo calendars.

GFS coming in a tick colder again for NYE/NYD system. Ninja’d!

45 here

LWX picking up on the freezing rain threat in their latest disco: @losetoa6 Latest 12z guidance, particularly the NAM and EURO, suggests that there may be enough cold/dry air advection behind the cold front for areas of freezing rain to develop overnight Thursday through mid-morning on Friday. The best chance for freezing rain will be across western and central Maryland, parts of eastern West Virginia and into the northern portions of the Shenandoah Valley. A few sleet pellets are possible across these areas as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A frontal boundary will linger over the area Friday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward through the Midwest. An interesting synoptic set-up with high pressure over Bermuda and weak high pressure over New England. This poses a steep temperature gradient at the onset of precip which occurs Thursday night. While much of the southern half of the region is likely to remain above freezing, NAM, EURO and EURO ensemble members indicate freezing rain, primarily along the MD/PA border, down through the Shenandoah Valley and the Allegheny Front. At this time, it seems possible that freezing rain does indeed develop for those areas.

EPS with a bit of a signal for a coastal on the 11th. Long ways out but it’s been showing up for a few runs.

Impressive run over run 2m temperature change.

Euro tracks the Sunday low from Raleigh to Williamsburg to Ocean City. Rain for the mountains even.

Are you sure you’re not moving to Logan Circle, DC?

At least you can laugh at us poor suckers sitting on the bay bridge in stand still traffic on a Friday afternoon in July while you’re sipping a cocktail sitting on the beach.

We’ll know in about 3 months how winter plays out is my call.

Got a few runs in at Wisp this morning. Nice, cold wintry day.

6z precip total (doesn’t include the Sunday potential). It continues to suggest the rain will flip to snow here on NYE, something that I haven’t seen on another model. I’m not concerned by the freezing rain as depicted since we’ll eventually warm up even out here and the antecedent air mass isn’t super cold (aside from today where we’ll stay in the low 20s).