nj2va

Sounds nice! Congrats.

Up to 40 at deep creek with mod/heavy rain on radar. I’m under a high wind warning at my parents place in ocean county, NJ for 60 mph wind gusts. Wild.

Same to you and your family!

I can still remember getting in trouble for throwing snowballs at passing cars on our street growing up after the Jan 96 storm in NJ. And then I’d shovel snow back into the street after a plow came through so school would keep getting cancelled (as if that had any impact ha). anyways back on topic, HRDRPS has that same snow band south of DC but it’s more localized over the eastern shore. Models seem to like that area for some reason for some surprise Christmas snow.

I need to start making a journal of memorable weather events. I’m always amazed at the ability by people here to remember random azz events. I’m happy if I can remember where I put my iPhone down

I like to think of myself as weenie-ish...where does that fall?

00z GFS has the band of snow showers running south of DC from OC/Rehoboth to Dale City-ish on Christmas Day.

Yep, LWX mentioned flash freeze in their morning headline today for areas west of I-81.

18z Euro gives McHenry almost 8” (Kuchera) through Saturday afternoon. Good for the ski resorts (Wisp down to Snowshoe) to replenish their packs.

Yep, this is definitely not your run of the mill cold front. Much prefer this over boring weather.

This is a really helpful post, thanks. First week of January has the best NAM look in years.

Ha, I was about to post the same thing. 1996 vibes?

Yeah, I was being a bit cheeky with my post since its sort of lol-worthy seeing it again exactly a week later. If we could either break out some of that energy so it’s not so robust out west (could keep it weak enough so its not a giant cutter) or get a piece of it to run ahead like you said, we could score some frozen especially with that 1039 H over Ontario. That H seems new this run unless I wasn’t paying close enough attention - and the post Christmas cutter is acting as a pseudo 50/50 for that H to slow down. Bears watching for sure.

NYE/New Years day looks quite similar to Christmas Eve/Day on the 12z GFS. Huge cutter, driving rainstorm on NYE, front pushes through and gets cold on New Years Day.

Can anyone help point out where the front is on here? Having a hard time finding it.

850s haven’t crashed through the area as of early Christmas morning so the 6z Euro ends with some light snow west of Carroll county.

The cities will score a snow event with that type of blocking....IMO, its just a matter of when. Might not be a 36” HECS but I have a hard time believing the upcoming blocking won’t produce at least a moderate event here. But I’m sure pivotpivot will point out something about the PAC that will f us over.

Mountains have a flash flood watch tomorrow and winter storm watch tomorrow night/Friday. There was at least 6-7” snowpack when I left on Monday + 5-6” fresh snow this week...could definitely lead to flooding problems tomorrow with all that rain/rapid snow melt.

Between the blocking and the post-Christmas GL cutter acting as a wall off the east coast, the New Years storm is stuck over the Midwest with nowhere to go it seems. ETA: on the 00z GFS. Eventually cuts to the UP of Michigan.

NAM wants nothing to do with snow outside the mountains on Christmas Eve/day.

@BristowWx bullseye....its gotta be wrong

P&C for a random town in western MN for tomorrow/night. -34 wind chill...brrrrr Wednesday Snow, mainly before 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 9am. Temperature falling to around 0 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -28. Windy, with a north northwest wind 32 to 38 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -34. Windy, with a north northwest wind 31 to 36 mph decreasing to 21 to 26 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

Yeah, mountains always adds some difficult forecasting conditions but just comparing Pitt to LWX, I can already see a difference with LWX even reading their forecast discussions for the mountain zone. Beyond the challenges of forecasting in mountains, I just find LWX a much higher quality than Pitt.

I’d be curious Jon’s thoughts for Canaan but until last month, NWS Pitt covered Garrett County and I always felt they were a few steps behind.

Pops a low along the gulf coast at H222 while the primary is over Chicago. By then the primary has wrecked the thermals so it doesn’t really matter what it does from there. Let’s see what the EPS says.