nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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PSU will ignite a mass panic with that post in about 5 minutes.
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There is no reputable model that is a total whiff or mostly rain. Even the “disaster” GFS is 3-6” WAA/dry slot or rain to snow showers on the back-end. Yes, this is not locked in by any means to a solution but its hard to argue against the consistency of the EPS.
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You’re notoriously bad at picking the jackpot between CHO and Arlington. Don’t mess it up for us.
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You aren’t kidding.
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I do the same at Deep Creek....when I was there for MLK weekend, at one point I just laid down and looked up at the sky as the snow fell on me. I probably have a problem. Lol
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It’s basically a perfect run IMO. QPF:
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Me likey....hints of the CCB on an ensemble mean. LFG.
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EPS not out yet. Should be in like 10-20 minutes.
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What will Ji do when tomorrow’s 0.5” is more than he gets on Monday?
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18z and 12z look very similar albeit both the SLP and 500 low are a touch north of 12z. EPS will go out to 144 so will capture the important parts.
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18z Euro gets the 0.5" line just north of DC for tomorrow's 'storm'.
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The para almost takes the low to Chicago before it hits a brick wall and heads to OH. Basically transfers at our latitude. 4-6" from the thump, dry slot, then 1-3" from snow showers on Monday from the ULL
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Euro/GFS are worlds apart at 500. GFS is a strung out wave as it heads east vs the Euro with a MUCH stronger 500 low. I'd rather the Euro on our side.
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ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday. Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want. I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen). The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes. I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON.
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DC now in the “Heavy Snow” weather hazard
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To my weenie eyes, one of the key differences is the strength of the vort as it crosses the country. Euro holds/strengthens as it nears our area which combined with a coastal transfer near OBX + backside energy to capture/slow it down. GFS is initially closed off over the Midwest but then just opens/shears as it heads east. GFS then transfers too far north/pops a coastal low at/north our latitude and the backside UL low swings through and closes off with the SLP too far offshore/north of our latitude.
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Yeah, under Surface --> Precipitation -> 6-hour QPF Members (1-25 then 26-50)
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Euro control is a great hit too. Coastal forms over Nags Head to just east of ORF, stalls for a bit, and heads ENE from there. CCB cranks over the area.
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I count 32 EPS members that give DC 6"+ of snow. And 50/50 gets at least 2" into DC. Sweet.
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Love seeing the 500 low closed on the EPS...shows the amount of agreement on a sweet 5H track. Also, has a double closed 500 low by 144 just off OC.
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It doesn’t seem like suppression is even on the table given we’re now under 100 hours out.
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Agreed, I’d be fine if we got that (in MBY) - anything on top of that is gravy.
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
nj2va replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Sounds like its time to move then. Welcome to climo. -
January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
nj2va replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
So far through 132, its all snow for the cities and points just east IMO. -
Totally agree. Unrealistic expectations were established yesterday IMO. And now anything less than a foot is a "disaster".
