nj2va

What will Ji do when tomorrow’s 0.5” is more than he gets on Monday?

18z and 12z look very similar albeit both the SLP and 500 low are a touch north of 12z. EPS will go out to 144 so will capture the important parts.

18z Euro gets the 0.5" line just north of DC for tomorrow's 'storm'.

The para almost takes the low to Chicago before it hits a brick wall and heads to OH. Basically transfers at our latitude. 4-6" from the thump, dry slot, then 1-3" from snow showers on Monday from the ULL

Euro/GFS are worlds apart at 500. GFS is a strung out wave as it heads east vs the Euro with a MUCH stronger 500 low. I'd rather the Euro on our side.

ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday. Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want. I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen). The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes. I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON.

DC now in the “Heavy Snow” weather hazard

To my weenie eyes, one of the key differences is the strength of the vort as it crosses the country. Euro holds/strengthens as it nears our area which combined with a coastal transfer near OBX + backside energy to capture/slow it down. GFS is initially closed off over the Midwest but then just opens/shears as it heads east. GFS then transfers too far north/pops a coastal low at/north our latitude and the backside UL low swings through and closes off with the SLP too far offshore/north of our latitude.

Yeah, under Surface --> Precipitation -> 6-hour QPF Members (1-25 then 26-50)

Euro control is a great hit too. Coastal forms over Nags Head to just east of ORF, stalls for a bit, and heads ENE from there. CCB cranks over the area.

I count 32 EPS members that give DC 6"+ of snow. And 50/50 gets at least 2" into DC. Sweet.

Love seeing the 500 low closed on the EPS...shows the amount of agreement on a sweet 5H track. Also, has a double closed 500 low by 144 just off OC.

It doesn’t seem like suppression is even on the table given we’re now under 100 hours out.

Agreed, I’d be fine if we got that (in MBY) - anything on top of that is gravy.

Sounds like its time to move then. Welcome to climo.

So far through 132, its all snow for the cities and points just east IMO.

Totally agree. Unrealistic expectations were established yesterday IMO. And now anything less than a foot is a "disaster".

I just caught up on the "analysis" in the main thread....that was impossible to follow.

It screamed textbook setup for the MA to me at 500 but what the hell do I know.

Clearly I need to learn my geography....I always assumed you were in SE VA lol. I thought I passed a Salem, VA en route to OBX every summer....oops

LWX bumped the entire area into “Enhanced” on Day 5. And here’s their latest disco: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure overhead will keep us dry and chilly Saturday. As the northern fringe of this high departs toward the northeast, the southern half will wedge along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. This will likely keep cold air in place ahead of a developing low pressure system that could bring us a mix of rain and snow or all snow later in the weekend. Clouds will increase Saturday night before thickening with precipitation arriving Sunday. As of now, the precipitation looks to arrive as some light snow late Saturday night into early Sunday from southwest to northeast. As an easterly flow increases ahead of the main storm system, we throw a factor of rain into the precipitation type mixture. By late Sunday evening and continuing Sunday night and through midday Monday, the easterly flow gradually becomes more northerly. This is due to a coastal low pressure system forming near the Outer Banks and intensifying as it moves toward the northeast. By Monday night and into Tuesday, precipitation should taper off and end slowly from west to east as the coastal low moves away and high pressure becomes reestablished in the region. Temperatures will be near average during the lifetime of the storm system.

6z GEFS seems to have a quicker transfer and there are some SLP ensemble plots showing up off the coast in a better location. It also gets the northern part of the subforum in on the coastal as it redevelops. But its still night/day from the EPS with the evolution.

Here’s UK at 120 and 144:

No one cares what happens north of the forum, sorry.

Dude, get your expectations in check. Euro is on an island with that extreme solution right now. Set yourself for a 3-6” event and enjoy if there’s an upside.