nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I guarantee you Loudoun county schools would be delayed with that weather statement if they were in person.
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8-10 on ukmet Seems like guidance is starting to converge on 4-6” from the WAA. Higher potential from the coastal but that’s where guidance diverges right now so who knows. Yes, I’d love a HECS but right now, that’s a low probability.
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I don’t mind Ji’s schtick until we have a legit event we’re tracking. Then it’s annoying AF.
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WHAT? This is breaking news to me. GFS took another step to the Euro IMO. GGEM took a bigger step and was close to a Euro-like solution....get the phase more south and you’d be happy (maybe). Also...can you take the ‘sent from my’ off your posts?
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GFS thermals are a joke. Even if its right on the track/transfer, the thermals are whack.
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Para GFS is about 4-6” from the WAA - dry slot - backside snow/snow showers of 2-4”.
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I’m still waiting for the (basically) unanimous 6” each member gave DC in the recent storm 4 days out.
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That’s what I’ve been looking at it too. NAM is much closer to Euro than GFS.
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84 hours from snow making it into DC and the GFS and Euro couldn’t be more different. It does seem like GFS took another step to the Euro (and as PSU pointed out, ICON would have been a Euro-like solution had the phase been cleaner). I loved the WAA on both 00z models tonight though.
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Through 72, the vort is stronger than prior runs which has been a big difference from the Euro. GFS weakens the vort as it heads east whereas Euro holds/strengthens.
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So little data available with this model but it looks like 0.5”+ snow for DC from the WAA. Similar for Winchester. Seems like places south of Baltimore miss out on the coastal action just by looking at the total precip maps. It’s such a wonky evolution. I like the WAA a lot.
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It’s not a coastal rider. The SLP panels are on WxBell already and it forms near OBX then heads NE about 100 miles off ORF then heads NW from there and makes “landfall” at ACY.
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I think PSU is about to spend the next hour making a point about tucked solutions and beating a dead horse.
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Hypo has to be a troll.
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In addition to the surface....looking at 500, NAM at 84 looks very close to the Euro at 90. It’s definitely not anything like the GFS.
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In 96 hours, he’ll be under a WSW for 18-24”.
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PSU will ignite a mass panic with that post in about 5 minutes.
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There is no reputable model that is a total whiff or mostly rain. Even the “disaster” GFS is 3-6” WAA/dry slot or rain to snow showers on the back-end. Yes, this is not locked in by any means to a solution but its hard to argue against the consistency of the EPS.
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You’re notoriously bad at picking the jackpot between CHO and Arlington. Don’t mess it up for us.
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You aren’t kidding.
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I do the same at Deep Creek....when I was there for MLK weekend, at one point I just laid down and looked up at the sky as the snow fell on me. I probably have a problem. Lol
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It’s basically a perfect run IMO. QPF:
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Me likey....hints of the CCB on an ensemble mean. LFG.
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EPS not out yet. Should be in like 10-20 minutes.
