nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I'm probably way off here but when I was looking at 500, I saw the ocean storm had a different look than GFS and was scooting out of the way - that and the vort diving down from the plains on the CMC was broader in the TN valley than the closed 500 low so I figured it would allow the surface low to reach our area vs being too far SE like the GFS. It honestly could have been a lucky guess on bad analysis lol
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Looking at H5 on CMC, this weekend deal should be good for us.
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Today will be a day to stay away from the LR thread - its got that feeling where people start panicking.
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What an ending to the season, exciting game.
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This is crazy.
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What a comeback. Let’s go tie!
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Anyone else rooting for a tie in the SNF game to keep the Steelers from a playoff berth? Hi @NorthArlington101
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Braised short ribs, risotto, and arugula salad with Parmesan. I made the short ribs yesterday in a Dutch oven for about 4 hours…cooled it overnight, got a layer of fat off the sauce today, then put it back in the oven for another 90 minutes tonight before dinner. I could have just drank the sauce, it was so good. It was from the NYT Cooking app - Garlic Braised Short Ribs with Red Wine. This is my 3rd time making it - definitely recommend making it the day before…melt in your mouth!
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Winds have shifted in Garrett County. Temp down to 39 from an earlier high of 42. Might end as snow out there.
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One of the ways to tell a good pattern is coming up is by consistently getting fantasty-land chances on the OP runs, which keeps showing up on almost every model fun. This wasn’t happening last month (and it wasn’t even close).
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Amwx gossip thread says it was you
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Great post to read over my coffee this morning, thanks @brooklynwx99
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Yeah I think that’s key to being more comfortable as an adult for sure — first time I ski’d was probably ten years ago in my late 20s. I always laugh when I see a 5 year old fly by me on their skis. Fozz, same here - cautious is probably a perfect way to describe my skiing. It’d be fun to do a amwx ski day at wisp/Canaan this winter for anyone interested.
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I’m still a work in progress too….I’ve gotten better over the last few years going to Wisp so much having the house in McHenry but I still find myself panicking and reverting to pizza. I think I like the apres ski part of skiing more than skiing itself ha
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Great post. That map shows the multiple chances that the pattern could produce. It feels like we’re on the right side of luck (finally) so I like our chances of one of these waves EPS is keying in on (or another) working out.
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Time to cancel winter. No blizzard this run.
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GFS looks good for the mountains next weekend. Gets snow from the LP as it passes our area and then upslope gets cranking as the LP heads NE. Would be good timing for the long weekend at the ski resorts.
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Lol, what an idiot. The anti-Santa https://wtop.com/montgomery-county/2022/01/police-man-gets-stuck-in-chimney-trying-to-rob-montgomery-co-home/
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Quite the blizzard next Friday on the GFS for LI/NE. Tons of energy rounding the base of the trough but the timing is a bit off in time for our latitude. Certainly bears watching.
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Named after Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini - literally wrote a textbook on patterns that lead to major east coast storms. They’re The Godfathers of east coast blizzards basically. https://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640
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I think ‘16 started showing up a week or so out and aside from a random waiver or two, it was locked in the whole time. I can remember even 5 days out, the ensembles had closed 500 lows taking perfect tracks for us on the mean which was pretty astounding and put as high confidence as you can into a big storm here.
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Someone smarter than me could comment but looking at 500 and MSLP, I don’t see a HUGE signal that supports the op but the upper air pattern is supportive of winter weather in the east. Fun tracking ahead.
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Drooling…fun to look at for 2 more hours
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Reminder of Ji’s last prediction a week before he had two measurable events. Keep in mind when Ji declares January is a disaster and we can’t even get a fantasy storm in a good pattern.
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21 here.
