nj2va

Is that a haiku? Not sure I agree with Kuchera not being great -- I think its a good tool to use to evaluate but snowmaps (10:1, snow depth change, Kuchera) shouldn't be taken verbatim but rather evaluated as one piece of overall guidance.

So what you’re actually saying is trust the GFS more since Euro ticked west…that and Euro has a dry basis….

6z Euro 2-4” for the area, except far eastern and western areas.

LWX expanded the WSW to Garrett County (which makes sense based on guidance). URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 334 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 MDZ001-061645- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.220106T2000Z-220107T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0002.220106T2000Z-220107T1500Z/ Garrett- 334 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. Northwest winds will increase and gust around 30 to 35 mph Friday morning. Wind chills around zero to -10 degrees are possible along the ridge tops Friday morning. * WHERE...Garrett County. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening commute and the Friday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow is expected this evening with snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour possible. Visibility will be reduced to below one half mile at times in snow and blowing snow.

Definitely! Bet its looking great

GFS coming in hot and heavy. Has 0.4” QPF in DC by 1a….lol

3k is looking better. Higher QPF across the board.

It looks like a uniform 0.2”-0.25” through most of the area (outside mountains and far eastern areas) with exception of NE MD with 0.1”+. With image:

Yeah, agree. At least we’ll have better than 10:1 ratios though.

Super long range 00z HRRR QPF map shows the banding potential the Twitter Mets highlighted earlier. This run of the HRRR puts one basically right along I-95. I’d take this run in a heartbeat.

Completely agree. How’s the house btw?

I’ll take this GEFS MSLP look for MLK weekend 10 days out.

My season to date total is higher in Alexandria than McHenry, which is insane. Wisp re-opened today after closing on New Years Day - super limited runs but planning more openings tomorrow and into this weekend. Upcoming pattern looks great for the mountains in MD/WV, especially as we get into mid month. Prime snow making conditions and could easily see clippers with great ratios enhanced by the orographic lift.

Have fun! I’m forced to watch the Pens tonight on TNT while I wait for the Caps next game on Friday.

It means he thinks you’re getting 0”.

Not nice to say about Randy

Love the sun poking through those snowcased trees.

Big time WOOF.

Nice try…..we have 52 different models these days that we can obsessively analyze and talk about.

Can't ever get a good trend in the dc area Yesterday called and it wants its facts back. 3k NAM is 1-3”.

Look at the HRRR. Runs hourly (buyer beware at long leads though). Also 00z kicking off now - look at 3k.

No one cares about swim meets.

One from yesterday afternoon before the snow tapered off.

I figured we needed this to showcase our winter photos. So many great amateur photographers here!

Between the favorable conditions for snow making and a potential 6-10”+ event, at least this should allow Wisp to re-open after closing down on New Years Day.