nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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At least in MBY, HRRR appears to be running a degree or two warm vs current conditions for both 2m temps and DPs.
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48/37.
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Good number. But I’d take the odds of going over that - this “feels” like a boom type scenario.
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Starts as rain then gradual shift to a mix/sleet before going to all snow by 8a. Given current temps, I wouldn’t be surprised we have a few hours of rain/mix before its all snow.
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NAM is bringing the QPF this run. But that cutoff is insane. Barely 0.1” in northern Loudoun and close to 1.5” in the southern most part of the county.
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51/41. 19 degrees to go!
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4-8” seems reasonable.
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23z HRRR drops almost 1” QPF in Alexandria/SE DC through the end of the run (stops at noon tomorrow). 0.6” Baltimore. Sharp cutoff north of Reistertown.
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Gorgeous, thanks. It looks like its taking on a negative tilt?
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Brutal cutoff for Leesburg there…
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For visual purposes.
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58/49. DP has been steadily dropping the last hour.
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No. Seems highly unlikely given the three hour component.
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40s marching towards the DC Beltway. 30s approaching Winchester. LFG
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SWEET, Caps tie it up late in the 3rd.
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Agree, Ellinwood’s map looks really good IMO. 4-8” (some locally higher amounts) is a good call. A few days ago, people were cancelling the rest of winter so I think some perspective of where we stood a week ago should be kept when freaking out about each run.
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18z GFS reactions were truly special…even for mid Atlantic standards.
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For the snowfall map queens. So much panicking over every tick.
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Triple closed vort at H18…tasty.
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Cold is coming. Temp down to 32/31 at the house at Deep Creek. DP readings in the 40s showing up in Winchester and Frederick.
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Looking good. Moisture transport from the Gulf, too.
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Also, WWAs expanded north and west.
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Yes. Long range HRRR is not reliable, don’t bother with it.
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Dew points are falling in the western zones. Upper 30s now in Garrett County. Upper 40s in Hancock.
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Such a beautiful state, any time of year. But winter there is like another world for sure.
