nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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CMC is a pretty high impact event for the mountains. Ice to mix to snow with the initial system then long duration upslope. Would put down a solid snow cover that would last for weeks with the pattern.
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Looking through the 6z GEFS members, it definitely made a jump towards a coastal redeveloper as others have mentioned this morning - there’s timing differences amongst the members but this gives you a good idea of the potential in these few frames.
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WPC maps does not seem to favor the sheared out version GFS has been showing (although 6z took a step towards a coastal redevelopment that the Euro and CMC has been showing). Their discussion favors the Euro at this time.
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Agree with everything you said here especially the last part. I was already looking at alternative flights home from San Diego that doesn’t have me land at 7p Thursday. For the storm, I still think first flakes are a real possibility for many. Favored locations inland possible for minor accumulations.
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I use tropical tidbits usually (sometimes pivotal). Lots of free data out there.
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Canadian’s progression of next week’s storm is an upslope dream for the mountains next weekend. Ski resorts would be thrilled with that outcome.
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Canadian progresses the closed vort east so it redevelops off the Delmarva from northern OH. GFS holds the energy back over the Plains and the vort weakens as it heads east so no redevelopment.
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Ready to extrapolate 84H NAM…a mid-Atlantic tradition!
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Fun to be able to track something at least even if it’s just some mood snow TV.
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Busy day at work so just catching up from today’s runs. That 12z Euro look is straight up weather porn.
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This is a common sense, level-headed post. Unfortunately, this place isn’t full of it.
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Has anyone seen @vastateofmind recently?
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Especially in your location, better chance at front end frozen from this. But I have a feeling the massive cutter depicted two days ago will continually to evolve like it already has.
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Yep, rams have fell exceptionally flat in particular.
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amazing with how much Amazon pays for TNF, the matchups are so shitty
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I’m more interested in the CFS for December 2024.
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I’m not even looking at the end 384H ensembles. Let’s also just focus on what’s in the MR to “early” LR before we start talking about long range ensembles.
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Last several runs for next week’s cutter/redeveloper. This is one of those threats that could trend in our favor in the MR with the block and 50/50 low that @WxUSAF also mentioned.
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That was a sweet run for them. I am really starting to like the look of that for the mountains. Verbatim, 18z is snow to ice to snow (and upslope will crank with that upper level setup). I’m flying back from a work trip Thursday night but we’re heading straight to Deep Creek from the airport - could be fun times.
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We always spend between Christmas and New Years there - way too far out to talk specifics and chances but pattern leading up to Christmas is looking really nice so far.
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Yep, a few OP runs over the last day have shown that scenario too that I posted last night. While odds are low, interesting things can happen with blocks and 50/50 lows.
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Literally night/day from last December.
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GEPS really poking that AK ridging poleward.
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Sunrise alert. Clouds lit up in reds and pinks.
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Canadian with a ‘transfer’ from the MN/IA border to the Delmarva with next week’s cutter. Still think the period bears watching as the MR gets sorted out with the blocking/50-50/volatility on the models.
