uncle W

it usually is boring this time of year...if the blocking materializes as forecast chances go up if you like cold and snow...if it's boring around Dec. 20th I'll start complaining too...

two winters I lived through in the 1960's had record warmth the first week of December...both years had a KU storm soon after...the years were 1960 and 1966...

recent torches this time of year had temps in the 70's...

my favorite from 63...

on March 4th 1960 during the blizzard I was listening to wmgm that evening which was the rock and roll station at the time...Scott Muni was the DJ said 'Hey Kids! No school tomorrow...I'll never forget that...

I miss the good ole days when Cousin Brucey and Scott Muni were on the radio...

I better barometer for daily temperatures is an average of each days hourly temperature and the max/min added in...there were records kept like this a long time ago... https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-EB426BAC-CC7C-4B0E-B7EE-107BDFE88ABE.pdf

if the ao nao forecast materialized Glenn's forecast is in trouble... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

NYC averaged around 42" of precipitation up to 1970...after 1970 the average is near 50"...big snow storm frequency is the reason for higher snow totals...

2005-06 snowfall was 30-35" for most of the city...Central Park's 26.9" was the most recorded in the city...I recorded 18" on Staten Island...

on this date in 1979 late in the evening I noticed wet snow flakes mixing in with the cold rain we were having...The next morning it was snowing with a slushy accumulation on the grass...

1954 had two warm waves of four days 80 degrees or higher in the first half of October...December and January were cold that year...snowfall was way below average in 54-55...I was in the first grade so I remember very little about that year...1959 had a warm fall with one day reaching 88 in early October...there was a white Christmas that year...2007 had plenty of warm fall days and the winter was horrible...it's blocking or bust this year but it won't guarantee heavy snows...

the top map are la nina's only...if I added in the other years the map looks redder...

the qbo came in with a value of -15.28 making it stronger than August's -14.42...la nina and weak negative years that had a negative qbo in September were cold on average if the qbo remained negative throughout the winter...1962-63, 1967-68, 1981-82, 1983-84, 2000-01, 2014-15 are years when the qbo remained negative...when the September qbo was negative but rose to near neutral during the winter the analogs are...1954-55, 1970-71, 1984-85, 1996-97, 1998-99, 2012-13...

October 1962, 1972 and 1979 had a slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces in parts of the city...in 2002 I got two nights in a row of sleet that accumulated enough to measure...

it has a lot to do with the night time lows getting warmer faster than the day time highs...both are getting warmer...the 2010's could have the warmest minimums on average for each month...some average monthly maximums came in the 1930's, 40's and 50's...October's highest average max came in the 1940's along with decade average...the 2010's can beat the October monthly average with another torch month...

I just started watching football in 1962...YA was the man for two years...the Giants had a great team but were out coached in the playoffs...1962 was the first year I did weather obs...it was the first year the four seasons meant something other than the weather...

the Maine blizzard at the ned of December 62 missed NYC with the snow but not the wind and cold... http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1962/12/31/page/1/article/high-winds-record-snow-zero-cold-batter-east

1938 saw a 90 degree day in mid October...there was 10" of snow on the ground at the end of the upcoming November...same for 1939 and the upcoming winter was very cold...

NYC Fall temperature and precipitation averages... September 1st to November 30th... monthly average and seasonal average... ....Temperature.....................................................Precipitation........................................................ decade...Sept...Oct...Nov...Ave........................Sept.....Oct....Nov....Total... 1870's...65.3...55.5...42.2...54.3.....................3.41"...3.55"...3.66"...10.62" 1880's...66.2...53.9...43.2...54.4.....................4.18"...3.17"...3.54"...10.89" 1890's...67.7...55.5...45.1...56.1.....................3.38"...3.59"...3.76"...10.73" 1900's...68.1...57.2...45.7...57.0.....................3.84"...4.39"...1.91"...10.14" 1910's...66.8...57.9...45.0...56.6..................... 1920's...67.8...56.8...45.6...56.7.....................3.54"...3.39"...2.65".....9.58" 1930's...68.7...57.4...46.2...57.4..................... 1940's...68.7...58.7...47.5...58.3.....................3.70"...2.42"...3.59".....9.71" 1950's...68.3...58.6...47.1...58.0.....................2.36"...3.68"...3.80".....9.84" 1960's...67.7...58.2...47.3...57.7.....................3.85"...2.45"...3.73"...10.03" 1970's...68.3...56.9...47.6...57.6.....................4.73"...3.88"...4.91"...13.52" 1980's...68.6...57.0...47.7...57.8.....................3.58"...4.01"...4.97"...12.56" 1990's...68.0...57.7...47.6...57.8.....................4.18"...3.85"...3.41"...11.44" 2000's...68.6...57.0...48.6...58.1.....................4.91"...5.23"...3.77"...13.91" 2010's...70.4...58.4...48.1...58.6.....................3.96"...4.01"...3.16"...11.13"...2010-16 ave... 1870-. 2009.....67.8...56.8...46.2...56.9.....................3.85"...3.66"...3.55"...11.06" 1980- 2009.....68.4...57.2...48.0...57.9.....................4.22"...4.36"...4.05"...12.63" ............................................................................................................................................... Coolest........Warmest........Wettest.........Driest.... 51.7 in 1871...61.8 in 1931...22.13" in 1913...4.00" in 1908 51.8 in 1887...61.8 in 2015...22.04" in 1977...4.67" in 1909 52.3 in 1888...61.2 in 1961...21.68" in 2005...4.93" in 1881 52.3 in 1875...60.7 in 1946...20.01" in 1972...4.97" in 1931 52.3 in 1869...60.3 in 1900...19.93" in 1983...5.02" in 1879 52.7 in 1917...60.3 in 2005...19.60" in 1882...5.32" in 1965 52.7 in 1873...60.2 in 1941...19.53" in 1889...5.76" in 1901 52.8 in 1883...60.1 in 1979...18.79" in 1894...5.77" in 1941 53.1 in 1880...60.0 in 1985...18.58" in 1944...5.83" in 1914 53.2 in 1889...59.9 in 1990...18.53" in 2011...5.96" in 1948

my favorite weather year was from 3/3/1960 to 2/4/1961...four blizzards and a super hurricane...that's hard to beat...

the driest decade was from 1956-1965...During that period NYC got five good winters and eight storms 10" or more...

the drought broke in Sept. 1966...1953 had 20 days 90 or better before mid August and 12 in the streak...1963 just missed being the driest year on record...1964 did become the driest on record...1965 broke that record by a lot...1966 started off like 63-65 but a big turn in the pattern came in September 66...

there have been many years with few 90+ days in NYC before mid August...many of them had most of their 90+ days after that...1960 had one before it got four at the end of August and early Sept...1973 had ten before eight straight at the end of Aug into early Sept...1970 had 22 90+ days...seven came in September...2015 had six in September...after the coolest start to August on record 1964 had six or seven more days 90 or better in late August and September...

1966 had three heat waves that peaked over 100 in Newark including three straight the beginning of July...2010 had twice as many 90+ days as 1966 but only one heat wave that peaked at or over 100...It probably was the hottest ever with four straight 100 degree days in early July...1966 had five total 100 degree days and 2010 four...