snowfan
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Everything posted by snowfan
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Likewise, never state something is a disaster when it's nearly identical to a models previous run. Pay attention.
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3K NAM isn't much different than 18Z for the DC area. Not entirely sure what people are looking at. It's 2-4" snow with a change to sleet.
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You probably want to be about -2C at 700 to ensure you're getting snow. The surge at 700 is going to be strong and we're probably looking at a 3-5 hour window of snow before we flip. Just need to keep expectations in check.
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By 18Z, most of the area is over to sleet.
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The warmth at 700 is surging on the NAM and oriented SE to NW along the Potomac. DC is likely PLSN at 15Z.
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At 12Z wed, most of us are in the snow. The warmth surging at 700 is still comfortably south of DC at that time.
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Suspect it's overdone a bit, but the icing that some of the guidance has for the mountain areas like skyline drive and west towards canaan would be crushing. Skyline Dr. has already been hit very hard this year. This would take care of the rest of the dead trees up there.
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Re: LWX constantly updating their snowfall maps......idk, everyone has their own style. CWG had me in a 2-5" zone earlier today with a boom of 8". That's a CYA forecast if there ever was one. And, I really like CWG, but it seems like they always produce a product that makes it very hard for anyone to claim they were wrong.
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Seriously. That post should be framed in the weenie hall of fame.
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It's not happening. Please just ignore that horribly silly post.
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FV3 takes that axis of heavy snow and shifts NE to cover dc and bmore.
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GFS loses the column some time after 18z but not before a 4-6/8" snowfall.
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GFS has snow entering DC from the SW at 9z and over spreading the area before 12Z w a good column...for the time being.
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I dont keep a running list, but he/she is another....
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Phineas showing up w his wet blanket as per usual.
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Quickly to plain rain doesnt seem likely.
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3K NAM appears to have a slightly better orientation of the precip across the area. Thru 21Z Wed, there's .6 QPF for DC and the column is still supporting sleet with the warm layer surging NE at 800-700. By 0Z Wed, DC is still barely holding onto the surface with precip totals approaching .9". Bmore over 1" by then.
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This is the outcome that I'm thinking is becoming more likely. We get a 1-3, maybe 2-4" front end snow, then we tack on a lot of sleet and wrapped it up with drizzle, freezing drizzle.
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NAM throws the snow maxima well into the Ohio Valley and PA. Our area sees a general 2-4" snowfall before going to ice. Still icing at 0Z Wed at which time our total QPF is .75-1" for the 95 corridor. More N/W.
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9Z Wed.....18Z NAM has precip field expanding to the SW as it approaches DC. Snow has overspread the area at 12Z.
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Geesh....FV3 has 1.6" QPF for DC for the event. Some areas N and W in excess of 2".
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By 18Z Wed, FV3 has heavy sleet.....maybe heavily rimed snow.....in the metro area. Heavy snow from BWI north and northeast. By 0Z, the steady precip is moving out as most of us lose the column. FV3 has a 3-5" snowfall for DC and the immediate area with much more along the 70 corridor and further E/NE from Baltimore/BWI.
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Fav beer for the last 4-5 years has been Weihenstephaner Vitus. Another excellent brew is Lexington Brewing Co. Kentucky Bourbon Barrel Ale.
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GFS basically discounts icing as a concern in the metro area, but we know it's struggles w/CAD. As for snow, it's a general 3-6" snowfall with more in higher spots south and southwest.
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By 0Z Wed, DC and Bmore lose the entire column. At that point, there's an inch of precip for BWI and 1.25" for DC.
