CoastalWx

I don’t know, I thought 60s here yesterday. Looked like some cirrus which isn’t exactly a big inhibitor.

59

The gradient between PWM and LWM tomorrow morning is something else.

55 here

Beautiful morning

That map is wrong from east of ORH to near BOS on south to Bob and then Ginx. But yeah other areas much worse.

The fact anybody would write winter off in NNE at this stage deserves to be caned in public.

It’s literally watching the quality of this place disintegrate before our very eyes.

I guess we have to reiterate again that the -PNA is not going away. It’s not. In fact it may get stronger at times as we get closer and closer. However, we need to watch Canada and the North Atlantic. That is the key to this gradient. Will it be over Caribou or Connecticut? That’s the key. As long as we maintain a semblance of a 50-50 low and a gradually improving NAO region, the chances increase for snowier scenarios as one moves south. If this does not materialize, than it’s probably just nuisance stuff for SNE and the gradient sets up further north. It’s impossible to know right now….hell we don’t even know what will happen next week. As of now, I don’t see signs of things breaking down other than ebb and flows of guidance. What trended better last night might get a tad worse at 12z, but that’s the ebb and flow. As long as we don’t see major changes in models hold for like a 3 day period…….I’m not terribly concerned. Take it fwiw.

Thank you as well for helping to keep this place grounded.

It did. Thank you for adding some science instead of clown snowfall maps of the west coast.

Will the neurotics from yesterday be happy about the op runs? Lol. As I said, op runs gonna op runs.

Then again given some of the actions from some on here, I might print them out and hang them.

None. Otherwise I’d probably regret some of my posts lol.

The irony is that I was sort of going with the persistent look which many on here rub one out to. But even that backfired lol.

It is on the reader. Then ask the fooking questions. I’ll give wolfie credit because he does ask. I love when people ask questions. It helps clarify a lot of misconceptions.

So how long before this gets through your head?

I must have said taking into account the -PNA a million times. I even drew an illustration. Christ.

What exactly are we supposed to say? Are we supposed to just forecast with emotion and lie about the upcoming pattern?

The funny thing is that we’ve all mentioned the caveats multiple times, but people are acting like our comments about model solutions are translated to locking in snowy solutions? Makes you secretly hope for a 88-92 redux to level set the weenies.

Place is unreadable.

For proclaiming being in and up, boy has he gotten it in and up.

Ryan changed a 9 day forecast by 3F. WTF happened to this board?

Right, and I added that editorial to explain what was meant by that in case I was not clear.

I'm dumbfounded but ok: 1) Analyze the guidance/potential ----> This is what meteorologists and hobbyists do. 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. ---> This is to take into account the bias of models seeming to underplay the -PNA 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region ---> We have a better Canada/NATL region than what we have seen all winter. Fact not opinion. 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. ---> This is acknowledging that because of many moving parts, one should not fall in love with a particular solution this far out. 5) Avoid emotions. ---> You need to add more of this 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila. ---> Objectivity as in understanding all the variables and having a rationale discussion void of weenieism and vapid pessimism based on emotions. So how is that wishcasting?