CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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People have gone mad.
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What?? A dash more -PNA than what models are showing. That's realistic.
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How many did you pop today?
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I assume that's through hr 360? I can't really complain about that graphic.
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A few degrees Saturday vs a 20 degree difference Friday.
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Meanwhile NAM is gonna ruin some Friday forecasts I think, Same with HRRR.
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That isn't showing blocking, that's straight up +NAO/AO.
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The PNA area overall probably trends deeper shown with blue arrow. I also expect the SE ridge to flex shown in red arrow. Key areas to hold on are the 50/50 low area circled in blue, and ridging into Greenland and points west shown in red. Exact locations might be off a tad because of the projection of the image, but you get the idea. If these features trend worse, then all bets are off. Right now, I don't see anything showing that, other than typical model ebb and flows.
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The magic recipe for threats beyond 5 days out. 1) Analyze the guidance/potential 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. 5) Avoid emotions. 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila.
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HA, get a load of the HRRR Friday morning. Low 60s near LWM, ice for the Pope. Backdoor looking.
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Meanwhile, beautiful day today except for the gales.
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That was the only thing I saw too and that system was never a lock. I almost viewed it as gravy since it sort of snuck up.
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Sort of, but this winter featured that, a strong Nino like jet out of nowhere, and lows diving into the Baja. This time, that's offset by Canada finally getting colder and with better confluence. But like Will said..in this transition time...you need things to break right. So a stronger system early to mid week next week would help with the next one a few days later.
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Troughing also dug more SW off the PAC NW. We've seen that before too lol. But yeah that system you mentioned is key.
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EPS is sort of strung out and you can tell the members must be all over the place in that Tues night through Thursday timeframe.
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Meanwhile Euro op has a weak pike south system on Tuesday night next week and then a SWFE for near the MA/VT/NH border north a few days later. Much weaker than 00z.
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I also don't have an issue with the initial larger event (like the one on the GFS for 2/23) to be messy. It's sort of the transition type event where I can envision that.
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He's going to learn in a hard way what it was like growing up, The days of 12" storms growing on trees will come to an end.
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I've never seen op runs swing some (who should know by now) in so many directions. I know society in general is becoming more stupid with time...but I thought this board was better.
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Jerry coming off the crown high?
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Given the PNA, I'm not buying the suppressed look. I'd side towards the GFS...but based on the ensembles...not quite as cutter-ish maybe? I could see a messy event though. Would sort of fit the look. Edit: Will said something similar too.
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Wow. Huge difference lol. I just checked the Ukie.
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LOL, I know. Also beware pretty colors at 500mb.
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GEM is fairly cold and suppressed. Op runs gonna op run.
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@wx2fishpointed this out, but epic warm fail possible near MA/NH border Friday.
