CoastalWx

Yeah hrrr was showing the slide SE so I’ll give it credit there. In general, I feel the extended stuff does waffle.

I certainly wasn’t trying to go the weenie route either. It’s just that we know guidance struggles with mid-level banding, and yesterday morning it looked good in your area. Of course everything slid east and that argument went away.

That’s fairly unstable looking too.

I think it’s just more perception. We expect skill and are used to it. When things like this happen I feel like it gets more attention.

Those things happen, but it’s the best model we have and has gotten slowly better with time. The reason why we notice all these little nuances is because the other guidance was always so bad. Now the gfs (although perhaps has taken a step back) and other guidance have improved more significantly. So therefore when the euro moves around, you’ll notice it more because the other guidance is not as terrible and used to mask any small shifts like we have today. The system is also rather dynamic and getting kicked East so these moves can happen.

Jeez hrrr is also kind of showing kevin getting paste for a couple of hours too.

Jeez the monads could get quite a punch later. Maybe adjacent ORH county.

Yeah, but bad bust on my part. Mid levels will go wild, but it’s more compact and moving East.

JMHO but that wasn’t a good take.

36 hours from the event though...at least I didn’t expect that much of a shift even if you weren’t jacking. I thought you were easily good for a 6 spot.

The blocking may help, but I’m thinking that it will be a lot of non-crystalline precip around here. That is a hell of a trough out west. My goal has been later in first week of December and beyond for these parts.

43 with light east winds and rain.

Seems like PF getting the messenger tug. Crazy when 24 hours ago they looked sweet. I certainly thought they would do well.

Nice!

The PNA goes negative for about 3 days next week. That’s cute you quoted something from 11/10.

Airmass blows

Kicker right behind it.

Yeah tough one. I felt good this morning on 00z guidance, but looks like Messenger (RIP) playing games from above.

Boy 3K NAM really pulls this East. Crushes this area with rain. Nail biter for the hot tubs.

NAM still was good for PF imo. Unless this really goes SE I think in between H7 and H5 should do ok. The fly in the ointment is how this is also hooking East. So you won’t get the big sling back of banding with slowing and expanding midlevels like you see in other storms.

For what? Good luck with it.

Yeah a bit east with mid levels.

12/2 should cause a few posts.

I’ve just seen it bounce around and also very mild, but then again I haven’t been using it for snow. Some SE ticks so far which perhaps means you are more on the line. It’s close. Kind of a tight little bugger, but mid levels are decent. You probably can’t afford another tick SE however. HREF looks decent for Mitch.

Extended hrrr is pretty unstable anyways. I still feel good where you are, but you may want to look at the SPC HREF in about an hour.