CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Here is another thought for those peeps near the coast like Jerry. My guess is that 1) Models will not be cold enough on the cold side of the CF and 2) probably collapses south quicker Tuesday morning. So those that change over, Tuesday morning could have a nasty refreeze back to FZDZ and/or snow.
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Looks like a dump to me. Don't fall in love with the clown maps.
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Only thing that caught my eye was the DGZ drying out after like 4z or so. So it would need to be hours of big lift from 850 isentropic glide and CF stuff which could do it I suppose. You'd think that you could nickel and dime your way to 18+ on the cold side of the CF into Wed,
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That weird hole is just a figment of the model I think. I didn't see a reason for that. The islands off of FMH aren't getting more snow than Blue Hill.
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Definitely for you. Almost looks like convection with very strong forcing
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GFS goes nuts. Massive dump.
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Purple first and then blue!
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Ha, the changeover to a driving sleet to snow event Tuesday night is real cute on the RGEM.
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We'll have to see how the rest of the guidance does. It's possible the first round is like 10-12" in the all snow areas and then maybe a couple more into Tuesday night. Wherever that CF sets up is good for an extra few easily though in local spots.
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That trough just goes nowhere into Tuesday night with another s/w and maybe some more -SN breaking out.
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NAM tries to sink H5 SW a bit in response to a sharp s/w Tuesday. Lets see if that rejuvenates anything.
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I like that shift SE with H5 too.
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At H5, looks like a bit more of a streak near Maine. At least through hr 18, might be a little south.
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And don’t look past later Tuesday to see what tries to spin north like the euro tried to show.
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The March 2013 storm did that here. Temperatures were great for all snow and it just piled on. It would be the same here if it stayed near or below 32. Probably double what I may expect. Even in the spring or fall with these cutoffs, usually a big liquid event with these looks when they last 18-24hrs.
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I could see 3-4” at the beaches and easily double that on the other side of town.
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That’s similar to how I feel. I’m not sure I get to 10, but hoping a solid 5-7 is a lock anyways. I admit I haven’t looked much everywhere else except you and Ray but I’d hit 12-18 total there too. 12” looks close to high confidence there.
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It wasn’t that long. It won’t be in this set up.
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One other factor for borderline peeps are the 3-4 hrs pf good lift into the DGZ as modeled. You may be like 35F at the onset, but maybe wetbulb to near 32 with those flakes helping to latent cool the atmosphere. Once the DGZ dries out, then it's over to a mix.
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I'll be interested to see where the CF sets up. Some of these solutions may bring that east a tad and at least get you more into the colder side I think. That would really help out if it were to happen ahead of the H7 warm front, but it may play games right over you.
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It actually tries to clip ern areas with a second wave..haha. I feel like the guidance is all over on Tuesday.
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Euro is definitely cooler compared to previous runs.
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When that stuff blows through, you’ll probably have lots of fine flake snow for awhile. May add up to an inch or two into Tuesday.
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Reggie is drunk lol.
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On the nam it goes into NJ. Slowly moves east after but it’s elongated and loses it’s forcing capabilities. The 700 WF moving north and strong erly LLJ is what does all the damage for us.
