This is also when the PAC starts to get a little more unfavorable and more progressive on some guidance. If you look at the 12z GEFS and 00z EPS, that's the farthest thing from a classic storm look. We do have higher heights to the north which can help transform an unfavorable pattern, but overall it's kind of ugly at 500. At least as depicted.
Yeah if one were to believe the 3K NAM, it would melt the hydro meteors, but it's a large area of sub 32F area that it falls through again. I agree, seems like maybe the area in srn CT and RI just inland may get decent icing.