It’s really cold at 900 MB. That to me tells me that there could be a lot of sleet a little further south than some of those freezing rain algorithms have.
Models aren't perfect with it, so they'll always be some issues. However, I'm not sure I would plan on a forecast bust in 2019 just prior to an event, because of convection.
I fully planned on a 3hr commute at worst. I had no choice, but to leave at 2 when shift ends. Who on Earth would think it takes 8+hrs for like 26 miles.
But models do simulate convection. So while the process is real to a point, this isn't 1995 and guidance not handling convection properly. It would have to completely miss the mark on this.
I admit not looking hard at srn CT, but not sure I see damaging ice? Maybe a narrow area in srn CT gets good ice, but sleet seemed like a bigger deal near 84?