CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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The Arctic sand is usually shitty growth caused by lift in a very cold profile. That’s when you get the tiny flakes and Needles. Sometimes the dryslots have that because the snow growth zone dried out and you’re left with lift somewhere in the column that is not conducive to good flakes.
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I don't really see any pronounced dryslots or anything. Obviously if you are well west then it might not be as much snow. Usually soundings might show subby areas or areas of poor snow growth where the lift corresponds to a temperature a little too warm or too cold for ideal snow growth. You don't always need giant dendrites either. Good snow rates with plate type flakes are fine too. Many times the "ideal" time to get the fluffy dendrites is fleeting unless you are lucky to be in a persistent band.
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You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air rises. You snow.
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In my 700mb image, the temps near 700 are cold, so the band of snow probably is closer to the thermal packing.
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But Will is right, it could be higher or lower depending on the temperatures. A quick and dirty way of doing it is looking at temperature gradients. If 700mb looks warm and the DGZ is higher, look at the 500mb temps. Your nice banding probably is in between...say 600mb. You'll just need to interpolate a bit.
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I tend to look at H7 more because that corresponds to the snow growth area typically. You typically want to be just on the colder side of the fronto packing shown. The atmosphere typically has a circulation up and over that packing, so you will typically see the band of heavy snow just on the colder side of that circulation. In the image below I circled where it might theoretically be in the snap shot.
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Something probably will surprise us. Hopefully for the better....but something likely will happen. I'm not sure guidance is correctly handling the dual low issue.
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That might illicit a response from a certain Met who corresponds to Harvey.
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Looks like ZR Phil comes again Sunday.
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Yeah I could see that. If winds switch N quickly here, I think it would be pretty good too. But whatever....just happy to get a solid event.
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We want that to optimize inflow.
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I have a feeling there won't be a huge difference across the region. Between some fluff inland, and maybe lower ratio stuff, but higher QPF near coast.
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I think that band slapping Kevin in the rear, may be over you too.
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Just one big Nathan's Hot Dog stand occupying the town.
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I could see it near 32-33 for a bit early on.
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That weenie band signal makes sense as shown on QPF. Congrats Ray to Will To Kev in that.
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Man that is a wall of QPF kissing the coast. Lets get that convection out of there haha.
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Any comments from those posting the Icon from 3 days ago and saying OTS?
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Ha, congrats Ray on 3K.
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Ray is sitting nice I think. As much as he has lamented.
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Thinking 4-7 here for the time being.
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Decent signal up your way i think.
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NAm is rather wonky.
