CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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That trough just goes nowhere into Tuesday night with another s/w and maybe some more -SN breaking out.
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NAM tries to sink H5 SW a bit in response to a sharp s/w Tuesday. Lets see if that rejuvenates anything.
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I like that shift SE with H5 too.
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At H5, looks like a bit more of a streak near Maine. At least through hr 18, might be a little south.
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And don’t look past later Tuesday to see what tries to spin north like the euro tried to show.
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The March 2013 storm did that here. Temperatures were great for all snow and it just piled on. It would be the same here if it stayed near or below 32. Probably double what I may expect. Even in the spring or fall with these cutoffs, usually a big liquid event with these looks when they last 18-24hrs.
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I could see 3-4” at the beaches and easily double that on the other side of town.
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That’s similar to how I feel. I’m not sure I get to 10, but hoping a solid 5-7 is a lock anyways. I admit I haven’t looked much everywhere else except you and Ray but I’d hit 12-18 total there too. 12” looks close to high confidence there.
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It wasn’t that long. It won’t be in this set up.
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One other factor for borderline peeps are the 3-4 hrs pf good lift into the DGZ as modeled. You may be like 35F at the onset, but maybe wetbulb to near 32 with those flakes helping to latent cool the atmosphere. Once the DGZ dries out, then it's over to a mix.
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I'll be interested to see where the CF sets up. Some of these solutions may bring that east a tad and at least get you more into the colder side I think. That would really help out if it were to happen ahead of the H7 warm front, but it may play games right over you.
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It actually tries to clip ern areas with a second wave..haha. I feel like the guidance is all over on Tuesday.
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Euro is definitely cooler compared to previous runs.
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When that stuff blows through, you’ll probably have lots of fine flake snow for awhile. May add up to an inch or two into Tuesday.
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Reggie is drunk lol.
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On the nam it goes into NJ. Slowly moves east after but it’s elongated and loses it’s forcing capabilities. The 700 WF moving north and strong erly LLJ is what does all the damage for us.
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I just think temps will get borderline, and when the DGZ dries out, that’s when it will mix with rain. So I would lean lower near the coast. Also don’t forget about the 700 low west rule. It probably will move out just a little quicker than one thinks. I’m seeing models generate some good QPF below the DGZ so it might be a little biased too wet.
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That also seems high near NYC.
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They have a foot for BOS. That seems high.
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That area near the NH coast into NE MA is the CF enhanced area. That may be a local Jack that we were talking about. Probably extends into middlesex county near 90/495.
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I wouldn't go by the 10:1 stuff. I'd be cautiously optimistic there as I think your longitude helps a bit and the WAA thump looks quite nice there. Back to snizzle and -SN Tuesday.
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The NAM siblings aren't toally in agreement. The NAM looked a little SE before meandering to the Cape, but 3K looks SE, Either way, tough call still.
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Probably should differentiate. I see you and Will in a good spot relative to getting the higher amounts. JMO. Maybe not jack, but in that zone of heavier snows. Nothing wrong with that.
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I give up lol.
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Well he is lol. You could argue he is close to perhaps a local jack with the CF enhancement for a time.
