codfishsnowman

yes, this is from an outsider....your season is off to another snoozefest of a start regression from 2011 continues??? twc chasing hail producing tstorms that only have some broad rotation....i mean really....

ugh those storms both of them...both the 05 and 15 bitter cold jan events....heart breakers for many western and some central interior folk, both promising feb 13 totals from big models and neither one delivering more than a moderate to moderate heavy run of the mill snowstorm over many many hours of snow i hated both events personally although from a met perspective they were pretty amazing but just goes to show that those type of events will ALWAYS favor the coast, the hfd spfd corridor north and west will always be on the outside looking in with those events...the storms really have to track inside the benchmark...jan 96 was on the weaker side in the hfd spfd area as well compared to just about everywhere else, some bad data exists on that event but the big 20 plus inch totals were confined to higher elevations and south (mostly well south west) of hartford ct...actually some eastern and south eastern zones kind of got screwed a bit from that event... id like to see a widespread two to three foot event from 195 nw with very cold temps

who really knows how they measured down there anyways

thank god i wasnt in springfield back then had about a foot plus overall in Bristol Ct...even the day it poured slush from the sky there was a couple inches of it...then when the winds shifted it snowed like crazy that next night for a few hours and pretty good into late morning Saturday...best depth we had was 10-11 inches but we legitimately had a good 13 inches as some of the slush compacted and there was a surprise inch in one last band that came through later Saturday Night after there had actually been some partial clearing...my friend who lived in Wolcott CT had at least two feet and had a foot alone the first day when we had the slush, I remember taking a ride up there two days later and there was still close to twenty inches on the ground while by that time we had compacted to six or seven... really cool storm though and i thought it was pretty well forecast a couple days in advance

you live in spfd or northampton???? its remarkably real for us folk!!! its not overplayed at all in fact its like THE BIG PINK ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM that very few are brave enough to talk about.

i forecasted 8 to 14 in my logbook for spfd and i busted horribly....i forecasted 12 to 15 for a friend in middletown ct and she says they are well over a foot

i agree its def 10 to 1 or less....still though not even half of the lowest amounts on box map.....i never bought 20 inch plus forecasts but i thought we were good for 12 to 15 or so.

in defense , there were some posters that knew something wasnt right and wondered what okx was seeing that they werent....despite all their epic events over the past few years i feel bad for them....it really sucks and were talking a huge area from albany to ttn and phl to hfd/spfd up to greenfield that was promised warning to crippling snowfall amounts

the radar hasnt looked that bad last few hrs overhead its just lots of tiny needle like flakes that dont really add up

lol some of us just will, stay up and watch this debacle back this way. You know over the past couple days I would get annoyed with your analysis but I have to hand it to you. You nailed this system with the eastern capture two days ago and that this was really just a ene event. Well done man, for real.

i didnt like the way this was developing from this morning, it just seemed too far offshore to me the whole time but with all the really good guys behind it I figured they must know and see things I dont. At the end of the day I am just a snow geek living in a pit for snow lovers but this time it wasnt downsloping/shadowing etc. Mother Nature still throws curve balls every once in awhile and this storm fooled a lot of people. Mets out this way who are so conservative tossed out tremendous numbers , numbers in some cases higher than feb 13.

not that it wouldve verified but euro went from 24 plus to 12 in one run and moved that heavy stuff 100 miles ne, very nam like. this is devastating, it just never gets any easier....still no heavy snow

Outside of ene there is just too much disagreement among models for so close in, its so unnerving

me too man, i am super nervous.....i just camnot handle another boxing day or jan 05.....both storms promised the world and both were remarkably unimpressive back this way....i mean every forecast i saw this morning including the 3 normally conservative local news stations all forecasted 18 plus....it seems like the window for heavier snows getting shorter and shorter according to necn

huge differences for us on hi res nam vs reg nam but hi res still better than 0z

didnt it give us less than a foot on the last run?

in nyc forum they said it nailed the late feb retro storm in 2010 down there.....it has these random victories but its just has so many wild swings

western central mass and northern ct is a HUGE part of sne and i have not heard any good news recently.....i will melt like butter in a hot skillet if ll these hours of model watching is for six to ten inches.....i thought the 20 to 30 plus inch amounts were high back here but the 10 to 18 i was going with may now be headed towards jeopardy....i cant handle a jan 05 repeat or a boxing day repeat

one more...for spfd in my time here feb 06 with 16-17 inches where I am but just a few miles west/north while still in city limits only half that much.....glad I was just on the edge for that as I did see 3 inch/hr rates briefly and brief thundersnow...I will never forget when I went to work down town later that night and they had eight or nine inches at best just 2.5 miles away. The next morning I went to East Longmeadow and measured nearly 18 inches otg so they probably had close to 20 just a little over a mile from where I was in south forest park

for my time in the springfield mass area, flurries this morning have me daydreaming again........... def the winter of 10-11 that thirty or so day span with over 50 inches of snow...really every bit as good as 95-96 and with better retention had everything: consecutive snowfalls with just enough sleet and refreezing to slow down sublimation/compaction and consistent cold weather at least one snowfall of 18 inches or better a couple inches of snow with arctic overriding and temps in the single digits 15 inches or greater depth for nearly thirty days greatest depth I have ever witnessed 30 inches morning of feb 2nd snowtober...the death band around or just after midnight with rates that had to be at least briefly 3 inches/hr and a peak depth of at least a foot! the tree loss and no power for over a week does tend to cast a shadow over it however feb13............it took FOREVER since the first flakes started flying just after 9am but the period of 9pm to 2am with nearly 18 inches falling and at times near zero in mostly falling snow, rates probably at times approaching or exceeding at least briefly 4 inches/hr...total storm accumulation just under or at two feet, 21 inch avg depth...epic for this area anyways...and truth be told that big amount in the five hrs was as the death band was starting to decay...

The last video in this post is the kind of "end of the world type stuff" I am talking about. Looks similar to Joplin Mo....just sick!

Birmingham/Tuscaloosa...havent they had like multiple f4s and f5s over the years?? Dixie seems just as dangerous as Tornado Alley in the middle of the country imo. In fact I think in one of those major cities there was a small overlap from major tornadoes last year and the year before where for a couple blocks an area that was just starting to get back on its feet from a 2010 storm got wiped out again last year. That is just insane!! I hope the insurance companies work well with folks out there. And another thing that really is upsetting: Homes not being able to have basements like in Joplin bc of high water table and Joplin is in a sweet spot for tornadoes, seems like going forward there has to be a way around this, engineers must be able to come up with something. Will insurance companies going forward pay for houses to have storm shelters built on the properties??

So some good signs were on the HRRR but not the whole package I assume. The other thing I have noticed is that sig. tornadoes have affected some portion of the Joplin metro area not only in 2011 but also in 2003 and in 1971. Three times in forty years sure seems like an awful lot. I would imagine there have been numerous other funnel clouds and a few F0s in the mix as well over the years.

No matter how many times I watch this video I get chills up and down my spine! This is about as frightening as anything I have ever watched on recorded media, whatever anyone wants to say about whether he had the right terminology or anything else ( some of the posts on here seem unbelievably petty!) This guy took an AMAZING video and he deserves serious credit for watching the weather closely and knowing almost four hours earlier that this was going to be the hot zone. Furthermore he went right down to the area where the big tornado was imminent and he knew that as well, he really deserves major accolades. In my neck of the woods most of the experts love to beat up on the HRRR model but the fact that this model had the extreme helicity over sw Mo. is also noteworthy and something Tornado experts should be studying in detail.