Sey-Mour Snow

Western NY with a nice surprise potentially too last minute thats like a 100+ mile shift west for them on guidance last several hours .. as usual NAM is lost .. has a nipple low that tries to pull southeast off the delmarva

Yikes lets see what NAMmys do , that would be 4/4 hi res wagons north if they shoot north again.. or maybe the stablize things and head south

Just another option on the table ..

lol ya exactly extremely funky convective look over CT

Still loading its an outlier now, its over Philly so take it for what it is, its way amped, earlier NW and warm.. LOL 850s are torched from onset in south ct

FWIW 12z HRRR coming in hot, just sharing some new guidance, been trending amped along with other HI-RES , CNE crew will like the final outcome I bet.

Hindsight is 20/20 lmao, you know you were excited about the potential for more in your location, knew it was a longshot here so we kept our 5-10" call .. We all discussed the potential of what we saw yesterday and that was to continue snow yesterday with a heavier band on the northern side where a ccb would prolong heavier snow.. As this storm trended north overnight the dry-slot cuts down on time of snow especially further south as well as the trailing wave not catching up now which takes off a few hours on the backend.. Several prominent meteorologists in here were entertaining the idea of higher totals as well as every CT outlet.. I'm glad we kept our map capped at 5-10" will just have to adjust the 2-5" north and west 10 miles.. We learn and we enjoy our first snowfall still.

Morhping into a 4-6 hour thump Saturday night 8-10pm start 3-5am finish with mood snow Sunday AM for Connecticut, can still do quite well in those 4-6 hours with 1-2" rates just away from the shoreline..

me and you in pretty similar spots in this one.. riding the line.. how are you feeling ?

#EverySnowfallMatters

It's just not what it used to be unfortunately.. Especially that BS 12z run yesterday

Well I agree on not changing maps yet, looks bad to keep changing that, just hope that it reverts back south like yesterday. But they should at least mention the correct facts in their discussion that everything jumped north and warmed pretty significantly..

LMAO I believe you but they obviously didn't look at anything after NAM and GFS .. Every single piece of guidance went 50 miles NW and warmed significantly for borderline areas, now CNE back in the game.. Need the same magic from yesterday morning ..

Ya exactly everyone north of that is solid for several inches. That jump north last night just made that dashed area a hell of a forecast.

Nice ya I-84 north still looks solid for several inches. Looks like a quick thump then dry slot shore again. Weird guidance did this yesterday at this time too difference is we have hi res now which agrees and also there’s only 36-48 hours til game time now l.

Wayy too long model watching especially to possibly get skunked down here. Whats your location northern ct right?

6z gfs bumped up north again another 25 miles closer to every other piece of guidance which did the same at 6z. One of the more wild trends I’ve seen. South coast gets a thump then slots now on most guidance GFS coldest. Kuchera shows snow swath better I like to use it for borderline zones. Congrats CNE back in the game.

Woof pretty big jump north on guidance overnight and our Sunday snow ccb is fading away.

That includes Wednesday storm

Definitely parts of Ct and probably se New England

Sorry here ya go

25 mile tick NW with the goods also not as impressive with the Sunday stuff .. just noise at this point will waffle back and forth til go time..

18" for NYC 0" for Kevin . hhahahah ..

Just a big IF .. in the case we get this to really slow down and nuke .. and that's most likely in your hood ..

I seriously don't think any poster on here ever saw this as more than 6-12" with an isolated jack of 18 kinda storm.. This is still likely a 6-12" storm for the max zone with the potential for a 12-18" stripe if we get this to slow down and nuke somewhere near the cape which will allow the ccb to become quasi-stationary..