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Sey-Mour Snow

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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow

  1. Sey-Mour Snow
    Surprising how we are still so torched post this coming weekend with the pattern change. Just no cold air to work with GFS is still +5 to +15 for the weekend and much of next week. Highs 45-50 still in these parts with lows around freezing.
  2. Sey-Mour Snow
    Ensembles long range overnight really hitting that monster -nao hard also a lot less -pna
  3. Sey-Mour Snow
    The blocking is literally in the same exact spot as that weeklies map
  4. Sey-Mour Snow
    The weeklies are do or die now? Cheer up buttercup it shows a Building -NAO for mid and late January with a transient -PNA week 3 which has been the thought for quite some time for many, then pretty weeniesh Weeks 4-5 with -epo and -nao
  5. Sey-Mour Snow
    Just bc nobody posted about it doesn’t mean it’s a step back, geps is cold as hell and gefs improved some and has a great -nao, eps remained steady
  6. Sey-Mour Snow
    Also first time seeing true Arctic cold modeled in Canada and the Northern US
  7. Sey-Mour Snow
    New Year’s miracle? Bump it NW and get some high pressure in SE Canada and that would work. So much energy flying around who knows what will happen.
  8. Sey-Mour Snow
    Ya I’m not saying it’s not cold enough to snow, you’d just think it’s colder at first glance. It’s actually just a seasonable pattern until that real cold push towards the end of weenie range.
  9. Sey-Mour Snow
    It's all semantics at this point, it seems like you agree with what we are saying, but are arguing otherwise. Long story short, long wave patterns are generally forecastable 8-12 days in advance by ensembles. Whether or not it produces the exact result we want or suspect is a different story..
  10. Sey-Mour Snow
    A light warm drizzle down here very festive
  11. Sey-Mour Snow
    It’s actually not cold at all for the New England forum. Cold anomalies are south. Actually still a bit above normal until the last few weenie days of the run. Weird bc it looks cold at first glance.
  12. Sey-Mour Snow
    It's actually pretty easy to predict a general 500mb pattern 8-12 days in advance most of the time.. The 12-15 is a bit more suspect but we do nail that well in advance sometimes.. The pattern that will lock into place mid next week for 7+ days was well forecast by ensembles starting at day 13-15 last week... Just because it doesn't snow doesn't mean that the forecasted 500mb pattern was wrong, sometimes we just get unlucky. In fact many torches are sniffed out well in advance usually by ensembles..
  13. Sey-Mour Snow
    Don't take away our fake cold "it's the only winter we've got"
  14. Sey-Mour Snow
    12/14 and 12/7 BDR was 25 or below. .. BDR dropped below 30 degrees 8 times since November 1.. Found a few stations on the water in Branford and they dropped below 30 the past 2 days as well as well below 30 on 12/14 and 12/7 and 6 times in November .. First one being November 2nd..
  15. Sey-Mour Snow
    Control run is even closer to a bomb on New Years ..Then the Gorilla (Rain this run) on Jan 4th.. Regardless some colder threats showing up for the first time this season..
  16. Sey-Mour Snow
    One interesting thing I noticed is that the notoriously cold biased GFS is 0 to +1 for a 7 day anomaly at the surface for SNE day 10-16.. However at 850mb its like -5 to -10..
  17. Sey-Mour Snow
    Are we in search for cold and dry or snow?
  18. Sey-Mour Snow
    Pattern looks good, who cares about a jackpot at hour 384.. We wait on the Gorilla and hope for the best..
  19. Sey-Mour Snow
    EDIT GDPS has you pretty icy by hour 170 .. maybe some freezing drizzle for SNE Christmas eve morning
  20. Sey-Mour Snow
    Funny how we feel so defeated with the likelihood of another snowless December for many, yet I just realized it is still Fall for 11 more hours..
  21. Sey-Mour Snow
    Verbatim no snow but that’s a loaded pattern and cold for a change
  22. Sey-Mour Snow
    Just took a closer look wow pretty weeniesh . Very cold for January and even more February with a more active pattern in January drier in February
  23. Sey-Mour Snow
    GEFS look better again, some NAO blocking developing as well.
  24. Sey-Mour Snow
    Jealous haven’t had anything good since 5am here…
  25. Sey-Mour Snow
    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX
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