Sey-Mour Snow

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

Hire is that THAT historic?  We have had So many storms with that.  

Thats 1 hour snow at 10:1 with a 3” band over the entire state of CT. That will never verify just fun to look at

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGcheck out long range hrrr . We’d make up for the past 10 years with that. Quasi stationary band setting up for our hood with 3-4” per hour rates at 10:1 lmao we will never see this again what’s weenie run 

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

thought they got rid of temp criteria a while ago?

They did

EPS much improved as well for SNE everything south again and delayed which has correlated to colder.. 

Kev to Scott 11-12" mean ..

Posted is 25th / 50th / 75th percentile .. That's about the least amount of variance I've seen in those for 48-60 hours 

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Regardless of clowns, it was good to see the mid levels not continue their march northward. I feel better hitting the 8 mark now. 

Ya 700 moved south again by 50 miles 

Nice move south again.. Close to much more out east as it explodes a touch too late ..

Ukie nice hit pike SE, it’s late to party like cmc 

The overwhelming majority of 12z trends is colder and south . 3km nam seems to be warm outlier for now… 

here’s our map from last night.. I said 35% chance we’d move it south , looks like we will move it south a bit if current trends hold. 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ehhh it just a fluctuation most likely. See what the Euro shows. 

I agree 

@Ginx snewx

sitting back smiling at GEFS 

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Always tell your pre storm angst. You get ornery. 

Feel the same about your optimism sometimes. Can’t just sit back and smile when the inevitable is right in your face .. I haven’t been wrong yet with every storm falling apart here since 2021..  when things look good I’ll be positive when they don’t I’ll note the possible negatives. 

I said pretty clearly I feel pretty damn good and optimistic for a widespread 3”+ south and 6”+ 84 north. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Save a horse.

ok dude I bet you are sitting back smiling on your horse right now .. 

Canadian still not biting fully, heavy snow up to pike only.. Weird how slow it's been to buy in 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Almost a LBSW look.

Ya instead its a LBW look ... Looks like we built a border wall on the CT/NY line 

GFS ticked surface / 850 / 700 SE and is cold enough for 95% snow in CT.. just not as much precip .. almost 12km NAM Like 

GFS with a messy precip shield , a lot less juicy 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol not that bad. You are snake bit. thinking 4-6” with a shot at 8”.

Ya this has a lot higher floor than all the other junk we've seen.. think 3"+ for all then 6" + 84 north .. not your normal coating to 2" until you get to extreme northern CT 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Icon ticked south again so I think we’re starting to converge. N it that we really care about that model but I try to look for trends in the outliers. 

It's ticked 200 miles south with the heavy snow axis since 12z yesterday ... Just a Global NAM

GFS is a tic South again this run through 30

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Writing has been on the wall since the start of the 22/23 winter...we know how this ends. A mixed bag of a 2-4 inches 

A widespread 3" +  in southern CT would be the biggest storm since the Jan 22 blizzard miss. I'm pretty optimistic that we do see a widespread 3"+ down here .. 

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wish dude but It’s about the trends and not the individual output. Look at the last 4 runs of rgem and guess where it is going next?

Reggie is actually pretty consistent .. 850, 700, and surface lows all in general same spot, that run was just more amped with the goods. 

5 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Rgem seems to be highlighting that same area of enhancement. Looks good overall.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Usually where warmth comes in easiest aloft 

I don't see any reason to be conservative with the warm air aloft.. It's going to come flying in and north.. 3km has the right idea 

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya looks just like ICON and the warmest EURO solutions ..

Wild 84 corridor is a degree or two between 700-800 from 12-18" of snow or less than 6"

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Ugh that 3k trend was not what I wanted to see. Thought we were beginning to trend in the right direction too.

ya looks just like ICON and the warmest EURO solutions ..

Just ran the 3km NAM 1 hr snow from my basement.. 5.3" of snow in one hour lol.. The 3km snow output total is from only 2-3 hours of snow, not good relying on 6" of snow to accumulate in 2-3 hours with borderline temps..