Sey-Mour Snow

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

H7 keeps trending north though. Looks like it tracked along the southern half of the state so we’ll need a bump or two south tomorrow. 

Def would love a tic south at go time from this 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll take my 12+ thanks. Steady as she goes. So dam consistent.

Ya gfs has been so consistent . Would be awesome for it to score a coup 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s amped but not a rainer lol. 

Ok not bad just loaded for me

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs coming in hot…

Hot as in rain ☔️ ? I’m only out to 39

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s 18z

00z

Super cold at surface not much precip compared to globals and obviously well south. Just another option on the table, if mesos hold the southern course then it’s going to be a load bath tomorrow to see what wins out. for Also no wind to speak of on NAM

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

NAM's clown.

That’s 18z

EPS loves the Pike

Timing with this also correlates to the warmth and lesser totals south.. Timing really moving up again on EURO .. 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lol the GFS could be the exact same run 3 days in a row and it would still probably make a move before go time. 

HA true!

7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

That's just wrong...

It feels horribly wrong but it's 100% true with this storm.. EURO has been jumpy all season so it's no surprise.. 

Funny I might owe an apology to the ICON if it's ends up right.. 18z EURO a lot closer to ICON than any other guidance is.. 

Some are delusional with beer. The EURO (aka the new NAM) has ticked 100 miles north today in 2 runs .. We will just follow GFS which seems to be more stable .. Stay the course for now, EURO simply can't be trusted check out the run to run consistency at every layer just putrid..

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

We Comma 

congrats albany that was an awful run for CT now many see where the worry comes, back to back warm bumps on EURO 12z and 18z

18z euro is an example of the worry for southeners lmao 

First call … 65% chance we bump the 6” line up to 84 and a 35% chance we bump it down to immediate shoreline. 
 

Ya I don’t think people realize how borderline this is for south ct temps like 33-34 with 700mb flirting with freezing. 

GEFS with another good bump nw.. south ct crew with toasters on stand bye

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

Wait another cycle and it will be somewhere totally different . Last run 700mv low was in central Jersey . Could either go back south or end up over BDL next run 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s just a generic 40 mph they blanketed the watch with. I don’t think they’re going to get into that kind of granularity for details yet.

Ya would be interesting I think we can get close to blizzard criteria for immediate shore . Should be quite the scene Tuesday with heavy wet snow 35-45 mph wind for coasts and almost low dark visibility . 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z Reggie bumped solidly N too. Still decently south of Euro/GFS but it gets warning snows up to near the pike or just S. 

Would be a widespread outage for southern ct verbatim 12” of snow at 33 degrees

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Is one coming?

Wild loaded look for Presidents’ Day 

Box going 4-10” with wind for the watch . Upton going 6-10” most in hills.  Power outages will be a major issue with wind and on the southern extent of significant snow. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Best the EPS has looked all year in fact.

Ya they are nice 

If anyone wanted to know what EURO was going to do post day 10 take a look at the control run for sh*ts and giggles.. Some wild solutions are likely in the 10-15 day timeframe 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s mainly a shift north with qpf . Storm still tracks near BM. People seem like they’re basing that on snow maps 

Mid level tracks are the reason not qpf 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Heh...cute.

 

EURO has been so damn jumpy unlike GFS for a change.. Last run that was shifted 150 miles SW