Sey-Mour Snow

Just now, MJO812 said:

Lets hope the others jump on board. We do have blocking.

EURO has been showing something very close .. GFS is late to the party 

lol oh GFS… 

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Maps?

GFS solid for most 

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s ok to say Tolland if that’s  what you think. But I haven’t seen anything that shows that 

HRRR shows it Putnam CT to Boston this run.. it will waffle.. instead of 2-3" that screw zone will be half inch to an inch .. Also parts of SW New England may miss out in this event entirely have to watch out for that.. SW Fairfield County in particular

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s ok to say Tolland if that’s  what you think. But I haven’t seen anything that shows that 

It could be anywhere in that area equal chances.. 

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

91 and RT 2 are perpendicular.......how can you be between them?

You get the idea.. Generally NW of Waterbury and SW of ORH would be the area most at risk to be skunked in between 

Most likely area to get the shaft is between 91 in CT and RT 2 in Mass.. Most guidance has it redeveloping nicely around ORH and points NE... 

Didn’t have time to dig deep in to the whole NE. Going with 1-3” for everyone for now, except less along immediate shore with warmer boundary layer.  Will tweak tomorrow. 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Let’s hope the Euro makes Boxing Day easy…

Please do

Just now, WinterWolf said:

That thing waffled to up to the day before though on modeling…then it kind of juiced up some the hast 24 hrs. 

Ya i was just thinking the last 60 hours.. That one was easy..

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The cutter? Slam dunk on a 6 ft rim.  

Lol ya that too! I was thinking last Sunday storm

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I feel like that’s been one of the themes of the season so far. Hard to get consensus at short range. 

Yes, although last storm I feel like was the easiest forecast ever.. 

GFS and EURO are worlds apart.. Euro now colder than GFS, GFS torches us on Wednesday 40-45.. Pretty frustrating differences. .GFS mostly misses with the main band, then swings the trough through later Tuesday into Wednesday but it's pretty warm by then.. 

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That model backed off at 6z. Toss 00z. 

Yup RRFS has now joined the NAM rankings .. although seems like every model is flip flopping around with this one .. I think you just paint a 1-3” across all the northeast and see what happens lol 

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1” of snow will last everywhere.. even coasts . I had 1/4” .. at most 1/2” last night that lasted today. Wet snow and low sun angle FTW . Precisely why you want snow now and not Morch . A day in the 30’s little to nothing melts 

https://imgur.com/a/dm7YoFS#KIRP4vD

Your high was 31 today with a dry NW flow... There is potential for upper 30s and low 40s late Tuesday and Wednesday.  The GFS is much colder than EURO , let's hope the colder trends continue and that we max out 32-36 instead.. 

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Maybe it will help out with the 26th as well....wishful thinking?

Lets just get a regionwide 2-4 and hope for clouds on Christmas eve to maintain the 'pack' for Christmas

GFS is colder again, would like to keep that trend going .. euro is like 5 degrees warmer Tuesday afternoon and 10 degrees warmer Tuesday night 

18z AIGFS also a good bump SW.

Woof.. GFS with the same big jump SW as ICON and RRFS .. has some currier and ives type stuff late Tuesday into Wednesday. 

RGEM went a tad north.. Guidance diverging a bit .. still 72 hours out ..

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z ICON shifted south also

Icon is weird.. Shafts everyone NW of SWCT on Tuesday then gets everyone that missed out Tuesday overnight Tuesday into Christmas Eve with 1-3"

I kind of agree with Taunton on this one.. We are going to need 2"+ to have any chance at a White Christmas. Temps look to stay between 33-38 across SNE for about 30 hours between 15z Tuesday and 21z Wednesday, before tanking Wednesday after sunset. Anything under an inch will probably melt. 

LOL the replacement for NAM and HRRR: RRFS is a toaster bath for most of this forum.. It ticked SW another 35 miles from 12z.. It has 1-3" for SWCT down to central jersey and shutouts everyone else.. RRFS did really good with the last storm, so it has my attention.. It will have to earn our respect though..

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam still meh. 

Just wait for the 18z gfs and euro to bring you and TauntonMeh back..

@Typhoon Tip