Roger Smith

Final scoring for June 2023 Max 60 rule applies for NYC but only for top score as all other raw scores are above or equal to minimum progression. * Late penalty adjustments in scores. FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west ___ TOTAL RodneyS _____________________ 62 _ 60^_68 __ 190 __ 86 _ 74 _ 74 __ 234 __424 __ 28 _ 98_ 86 __ 212 _____ 636 DonSutherland1 ______________58 _ 50 _ 42 __ 150 __ 94 _ 84 _ 54 __ 232 __ 382 __ 84 _ 90 _ 60 __ 234 _____ 616 ___ Normal ___________________ 56 _ 60 _ 58 __ 174 __ 96 _ 74 _ 58 __ 228 __ 402 __ 20 _ 60 _100 __ 180 _____ 582 Rhino 16 ______________________38 _ 54 _ 50 __ 142 __ 90 _ 60 _ 66 __ 216 __ 358 __ 26 _ 68 _ 86 __ 180 _____ 538 ___ Consensus _______________ 36 _ 44 _ 42 __ 122 __ 94 _ 66 _ 74 __ 234 __ 356 __ 20 _ 68 _ 70 __ 158 _____ 514 wxallannj _____________________36 _ 44 _ 38 __ 118 __100 _ 98 _ 18 __ 216 __ 334 __ 44 _ 70 _ 56 __ 170 _____ 504 BKViking _____________________ 42 _ 42 _ 48 __ 132 __100_ 78 _ 88 __ 266 __ 398 __ 04 _ 28 _ 72 __ 104 _____ 502 Terpeast _____________________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 __ 140 __ 84 _ 86 _ 26 __ 196 __ 336 __ 10 _ 76 _ 60 __ 146 _____ 482 wxdude64 ___________________ 24 _ 18 _ 12 __ 054 __ 66 _ 88 _ 62 __ 216 __ 270 __ 62 _ 86 _ 64 __ 212 _____ 482 Tom __________________________34 _ 36 _ 42 __ 112 __ 86 _ 66 _ 80 __ 232 __ 344 __ 12 _ 38 _ 78 __ 128 _____ 472 so_whats_happening ________ 34 _ 44 _ 42 __ 120 ___68 _ 64 _ 46 __ 178 __ 298 __ 24 _ 72 _ 70 __ 166 _____ 464 Scotty Lightning _____________ 36 _ 40 _ 38 __ 114 __ 84 _ 44 _ 88 __ 216 __ 330 __ 00 _ 30 _ 90 __ 120 _____ 450 hudsonvalley21 _______________42 _ 52 _ 46 __ 140 __ 78 _ 38 _ 78 __ 194 __ 334 __ 00 _ 22 _ 78 __ 100 _____ 434 RJay _______ (-2%) ___________ 35*_20 _ 00 __ 055 __ 63*_ 43*_96*__202 __ 257 __ 20 _ 59*_ 59*__ 138 _____ 395 Roger Smith _________________ 00 _ 10 _ 00 __ 010 ___44 _ 44 _ 72 __ 160 __ 170 ___ 00 _ 54 _ 56 ___ 110 _____ 280 - - - - - - ___ Persistence ______________100 _ 70 _ 24 __ 194 __ 68 _ 92 _ 44 __ 204 __ 398 ___ 00 _ 34 _ 74 __ 108 _____ 506 ^ max 60 scoring applies _____________________ EXTREME FORECASTS DCA (-2.2), NYC (-2.0), BOS (-2.1) RodneyS has three wins for coldest forecasts, sharing NYC with Terpeast. Normal also gets a win for NYC. ORD (+0.2) wxallannj and BKViking share a win for second coldest forecasts, RodneyS takes a loss and Normal is credited with a win also. ATL (-1.3) wxallannj (-1.2) takes a win with coldest forecast. IAH (+2.1) RJay has a win with warmest forecast (+2.0). DEN (-4.0) DonSutherland1 has a win with coldest forecast (-3.2). PHX (-2.0) RodneyS has a win with coldest forecast (-2.1). SEA (0.0) Scotty Lightning (+0.5) and Normal took a win for coldest forecasts. Summary _ RodneyS 4*-1, Normal 3-0, wxallannj 2*-0, RJay, Don, Terpeast*, BKViking*, Scotty all 1-0 (* one of total includes a tie, Normal does not record ties) All locations qualified and 8/9 for coldest forecast, 1/9 for warmest forecast. ------------------------------------------------- (actual forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith _________________ +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 __+3.0 _+1.5 _+0.7___+1.7 _+0.3 _+2.2 wxdude64 ___________________ +1.6 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___+1.9 _-0.7 _+0.2 __ -2.1 _ -1.3 _+1.8 Tom __________________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+0.4 _+1.1___+0.4 _+1.1 _+1.1 so_whats_happening ________ +1.1 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+1.8 _+0.5 _-0.6 __ -0.2 _-0.6 _+1.5 RJay _______ (-2%) ___________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.9 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 _+2.0 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxallannj _____________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __+0.2 _-1.2 _-2.0 __ -1.2 _-0.5 _+2.2 ___ Consensus _______________ +1.0 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+0.5_+0.4 _+0.8 __ 0.0 _-0.4_ +1.5 Rhino 16 _____________________ +0.9 _+0.3 _+0.4 __+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.4 __-0.3 _-0.4 _+0.7 BKViking _____________________+0.7 _+0.9 _+0.5 __+0.2 _-0.2 _+1.5 __+0.8 _+1.6 _+1.4 hudsonvalley21 ______________+0.7 _+0.4 _+0.6 __+1.3 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.4 _+1.9 _+1.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 _____________ -0.1 _ +0.5 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _-0.5 _-0.2 __-3.2 _-1.5 _+2.0 Terpeast _____________________-0.3 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ +1.0 _-0.6 _-1.6 __ +0.5 _-0.8 _+2.0 RodneyS _____________________-0.3 _+0.1 _-0.5 ___-0.5 __ 0.0 _+0.8 __-0.4 _-2.1 _+0.7 _____________________

Re discussion of summer better defined as June to August or June 21 to Sept 21, actually June 13 to Sep 13 is the warmest quarter of the year on average. So it is a compromise and slightly closer to astronomical summer than to climatological summer. Every year is different of coursre, and 1881 had a very late displacement of its summer into basically July to September. 1964 was probably the most extreme example in the other direction, May was more of a summer feel than August that year. 1965 was almost as early except that July 1965 was a very cool month too, there was almost no summer in 1965. I see signs on tonite\s ,model run of Texas anomaly moving towards Kansas and once it gets past KS will be difficult to keep it entirely out of NE states but signs are weak later in model run for it so far. July 5-8 would be most likey arrival time.

I wonder if the heat in Texas will eventually begin to spread north and east, looking back at maps for June 1936 it looked fairly similar and that intense heat did not really begin to move out of the south until early July. The real push northeast began around July 3-4. It reached the Midwest by 5th-6th and the northeast U.S. by 8th-9th. I don't suppose this will be equal but it could be a change in the pattern. There were actually some quite cool days in early July of 1936 before the record heat wave began.

After the first half of June, anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA 16th ___ (15d anom) _____ -1.6 _ -1.6 _ -2.5 ___ -0.2 _ -1.2 _ -1.0 ___ -4.9 _ -3.4 _ +1.0 16th ___ (p30d anom) ____-1.0 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 ___ +0.2 _ -1.0 _ -0.5___ -2.0 _ -1.5 __ 0.0 23rd __ (22d anom) _____ -2.7_ -2.2 _-3.3 ___ -0.5 _ -1.7 _ +1.0 ___ -4.4 _-2.5*_ -0.7 *est data for Phx on 21st, 22nd, msg data 23rd __ (p30d anom) ____ -2.0 _-2.0 _-2.5 ____ 0.0 _ -1.5 _ +2.0 ____-2.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.5 30th __ (final anoms) ____ -2.2 _ -2.0 _-2.1 ____+0.2 _-1.3 _ +2.1 ____-4.0 _-2.0* _ 0.0 summer max so far _______ 94 __ 91 __ 88 ____ 93 __ 92 __ 100 _____ 92 __ 112 __ 89 * data for 21st and 22nd (max temp only) are now included and I have adjusted scoring to the confirmed anomaly of -2.0 F. (23rd) Looks just a bit warmer in general but not so much as to impact on current anomalies greatly. Provisional scoring to follow. (30th - 1st overnight) Final anomalies are now posted. Scoring is updated.

Table of entries as of June 13 Entrants can still modify these forecasts and new forecasts can be entered up until end of Friday June 16th. Order of entry is shown in brackets. A revised forecast will result in a new later order of entry. As contest host, I will not have an order of entry, so anyone who ties me in total error will be ahead in rankings. Tiebreakers are explained in a previous post. FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC GeorgeBM ( 8 ) __________________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) ________ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 Roger Smith _____________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 H2O (20) _________________________102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ChillinIt (15) _______________________102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 Rhino16 ( 2 ) ______________________101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 mattie g (17) ______________________101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 wxdude64 (16) ___________________101 __ 99 _ 101 __ 102 soundmdwatcher (23) ___________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 Terpeast ( 6 ) ____________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 tplbge (24) _______________________100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 GramaxRefugee (19) _____________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 toolsheds (18) ____________________100 __ 98 _ 101 _ 102 biodhokie (25) ____________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) ______________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 WinstonSalemArlington (22) ______ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 100 Weather53 (13) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 WxUSAF ( 4 ) _____________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 katabatic ( 9 ) _____________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 NorthArlington101 (21) ____________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 Stormpc (14) ______________________98 _ 102 _ 101 __ 99 MN Transplant ( 5 ) _______________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 Its a Breeze (12) __________________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 WxWatcher007 (11) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 LittleVillageWx (10) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98

New York City (NYC) Seasonal average temperatures 1869 to 2024 Winter includes the preceding year's December. 1868-69 had no data for December. A provisional value of 1.5 C is used for Dec 1868 based on comparisons with locations that did have data. The Jan-Feb average alone (1.56) is similar. YEAR ___ winter _ spring _ summer _ autumn 1869 ____ 1.54 ____ 8.47 ___ 21.83 ____ 11.26 1870 ____ 1.39 ____ 9.21 ___ 23.85 ____ 13.73 1871 ____-0.63____11.22 ___ 21.87 ____ 10.96 1872 ____-1.50 ____ 8.41 ___ 23.76 ____ 11.96 1873 ____-2.07 ____ 8.37 ___ 22.54 ____ 11.52 1874 ____ 1.11 ____ 7.59 ___ 21.91 ____ 12.87 1875 ____-2.45 ____ 7.65 ___ 22.24 ____ 11.28 1876 ____ 1.17 ____ 8.44 ___ 24.46 ____ 11.76 1877 ____-1.18 ____ 8.72 ___ 23.07 ____ 13.18 1878 ____ 0.72 ____11.26 ___ 22.90 ____ 13.85 1879 ____-1.54 ____10.31 ___ 22.44 ____ 13.15 1880 ____ 3.28 ____10.81 ___ 23.09 ____ 11.74 1881 ____-2.98 _____ 9.13 ___ 21.61 ____ 15.07 1882 ____ 1.37 _____ 9.00 ___ 23.15 ____ 12.48 1883 ____-1.85 _____ 8.32 ___ 22.76 ____ 11.57 1884 ____-0.98 _____ 9.18 ___ 22.39 ____ 14.44 1885 ____-1.91 _____ 8.13 ___ 23.31 ____ 12.48 1886 ____-1.11 ____ 10.13 ___ 21.67 ____ 12.74 1887 ____-0.98 _____ 8.59 ___ 22.56 ____ 11.00 1888 ____-1.83 _____ 7.04 ___ 21.89 ____ 11.28 1889 ____ 0.41 ____ 10.82 ___ 21.91 ____ 11.78 1890 ____ 3.61 _____ 9.07 ___ 22.20 ____ 12.87 1891 ____ 0.78 _____ 8.76 ___ 22.83 ____ 13.81 1892 ____ 2.07 _____ 8.55 ___ 23.46 ____ 12.06 1893 ____-1.98 _____ 8.17 ___ 22.08 ____ 12.30 1894 ____ 0.13 ____ 10.54 ___ 22.22 ____ 12.89 1895 ____-0.98 _____ 9.63 ___ 23.17 ____ 13.93 1896 ____ 0.70 ____ 10.35 ___ 23.46 ____ 13.91 1897 ____ 0.41 ____ 10.52 ___ 22.33 ____ 13.63 1898 ____ 2.48 ____ 10.32 ___ 23.45 ____ 14.71 1899 ____-0.39 _____ 9.94 ___ 23.98 ____ 13.83 1900 ____ 0.80 _____ 8.70 ___ 23.54 ____ 15.72 1901 ____-0.17 _____ 8.82 ___ 23.57 ____ 12.56 1902 ____ 0.00 ____ 10.72 ___ 21.39 ____ 14.91 1903 ____ 0.02 ____ 12.33 ___ 20.72 ____ 13.18 1904 ____-2.56 _____ 9.33 ___ 22.56 ____ 12.41 1905 ____-2.15 ____ 10.33 ___ 23.21 ____ 14.28 1906 ____ 2.61 ____ 10.06 ___ 24.41 ____ 14.28 1907 ____-0.19 _____ 9.15 ___ 22.85 ____ 12.93 1908 ____ 0.70 ____ 11.29 ___ 24.56 ____ 14.85 1909 ____ 2.59 _____ 9.48 ___ 22.56 ____ 13.85 1910 ____-0.46 ____ 11.68 ___ 22.57 ____ 13.80 1911 ____ 0.30 _____ 9.37 ___ 23.00 ____ 13.05 1912 ____-0.76 ____ 10.05 ___ 22.43 ____ 14.37 1913 ____ 2.85 ____ 11.48 ___ 22.96 ____ 13.80 1914 ____-0.08 _____ 9.80 ___ 22.15 ____ 13.85 1915 ____ 1.11 ____ 10.04 ___ 21.76 ____ 14.44 1916 ____ 0.26 _____ 8.55 ___ 22.20 ____ 13.82 1917 ____-0.15 _____ 8.52 ___ 23.41 ____ 11.52 1918 ____-3.50 ____ 11.50 ___ 22.76 ____ 13.61 1919 ____ 2.57 ____ 10.98 ___ 22.42 ____ 14.07 1920 ____-2.57 _____ 9.41 ___ 22.46 ____ 14.45 1921 ____ 1.61 ____ 12.91 ___ 22.98 ____ 14.28 1922 ____-0.31 ____ 11.31 ___ 22.57 ____ 14.09 1923 ____-1.15 _____ 9.47 ___ 22.93 ____ 13.61 1924 ____ 1.41 _____ 9.19 ___ 22.26 ____ 12.89 1925 ____ 0.80 ____ 11.04 ___ 23.18 ____ 12.46 1926 ____ 0.00 _____ 8.72 ___ 22.20 ____ 12.91 1927 ____ 0.04 ____ 10.11 ___ 21.07 ____ 14.94 1928 ____ 1.43 _____ 9.37 ___ 22.72 ____ 13.89 1929 ____ 1.50 ____ 11.45 ___ 23.05 ____ 13.74 1930 ____ 1.87 ____ 10.44 ___ 23.61 ____ 14.28 1931 ____ 0.98 ____ 10.54 ___ 23.59 ____ 16.58 1932 ____ 4.50 _____ 9.68 ___ 23.57 ____ 14.05 1933 ____ 3.24 ____ 10.59 ___ 23.53 ____ 13.24 1934 ____-1.61 ____ 10.24 ___ 23.61 ____ 14.18 1935 ____-0.46 ____ 10.57 ___ 23.33 ____ 13.96 1936 ____-2.04 ____ 11.39 ___ 23.22 ____ 13.42 1937 ____ 3.26 ____ 10.06 ___ 23.89 ____ 13.30 1938 ____ 1.28 ____ 11.61 ___ 23.91 ____ 14.46 1939 ____ 1.89 ____ 10.45 ___ 24.39 ____ 13.63 1940 ____-0.22 _____ 8.63 ___ 22.59 ____ 12.91 1941 ____ 0.54 ____ 11.41 ___ 23.28 ____ 15.68 1942 ____ 0.50 ____ 12.24 ___ 23.13 ____ 14.46 1943 ____ 0.09 _____ 9.80 ___ 24.63 ____ 13.43 1944 ____ 0.76 ____ 10.65 ___ 24.72 ____ 14.30 1945 ____-0.85 ____ 12.94 ___ 22.76 ____ 14.46 1946 ____ 0.15 ____ 12.24 ___ 22.22 ____ 15.93 1947 ____ 1.56 _____ 9.67 ___ 22.94 ____ 14.89 1948 ____-1.09 ____ 10.61 ___ 23.30 ____ 15.44 1949 ____ 3.61 ____ 11.82 ___ 24.92 ____ 14.74 1950 ____ 3.04 _____ 8.83 ___ 22.67 ____ 14.30 1951 ____ 2.17 ____ 11.45 ___ 23.17 ____ 13.76 1952 ____ 2.78 ____ 11.09 ___ 24.59 ____ 14.48 1953 ____ 3.41 ____ 11.68 ___ 24.29 ____ 15.70 1954 ____ 3.00 ____ 10.96 ___ 23.17 ____ 14.72 1955 ____ 1.09 ____ 11.96 ___ 24.43 ____ 14.05 1956 ____ 0.43 _____ 8.94 ___ 22.68 ____ 13.63 1957 ____ 1.98 ____ 11.52 ___ 24.00 ____ 14.68 1958 ____ 0.65 ____ 10.43 ___ 22.69 ____ 13.89 1959 ____-0.63 ____ 11.91 ___ 23.89 ____ 15.17 1960 ____ 2.34 ____ 10.00 ___ 23.20 ____ 14.78 1961 ____-0.13 ____ 10.07 ___ 24.22 ____ 16.20 1962 ____ 0.72 ____ 12.02 ___ 22.76 ____ 12.87 1963 ____-1.13 ____ 11.58 ___ 22.85 ____ 14.69 1964 ____ 0.71 ____ 11.52 ___ 22.94 ____ 14.00 1965 ____ 0.74 ____ 11.29 ___ 22.52 ____ 14.00 1966 ____ 2.18 ____ 10.74 ___ 25.18 ____ 14.00 1967 ____ 1.17 _____ 8.59 ___ 23.34 ____ 13.04 1968 ____-0.41 ____ 11.46 ___ 23.52 ____ 15.18 1969 ____ 0.50 ____ 12.09 ___ 23.94 ____ 14.28 1970 ____-0.83 ____ 10.89 ___ 24.00 ____ 15.22 1971 ____ 0.09 ____ 10.42 ___ 24.42 ____ 15.45 1972 ____ 2.09 ____ 10.59 ___ 23.09 ____ 13.22 1973 ____ 1.94 ____ 11.72 ___ 24.52 ____ 15.19 1974 ____ 1.85 ____ 11.54 ___ 23.45 ____ 13.52 1975 ____ 3.05 ____ 10.72 ___ 23.09 ____ 14.76 1976 ____ 1.33 ____ 11.78 ___ 23.39 ____ 12.07 1977 ____-1.95 ____ 12.87 ___ 23.87 ____ 13.78 1978 ____-0.94 ____ 10.39 ___ 23.28 ____ 13.28 1979 ____ 0.37 ____ 12.74 ___ 23.50 ____ 15.61 1980 ____ 1.89 ____ 12.09 ___ 24.80 ____ 13.82 1981 ____ 0.39 ____ 12.46 ___ 24.35 ____ 13.65 1982 ____ 0.35 ____ 11.35 ___ 22.91 ____ 15.04 1983 ____ 3.28 ____ 11.21 ___ 24.93 ____ 15.30 1984 ____ 1.80 ____ 10.04 ___ 24.05 ____ 14.63 1985 ____ 2.45 ____ 13.08 ___ 23.00 ____ 15.56 1986 ____ 0.80 ____ 12.89 ___ 23.09 ____ 14.00 1987 ____ 1.58 ____ 12.26 ___ 23.89 ____ 13.59 1988 ____ 1.48 ____ 11.39 ___ 24.80 ____ 13.63 1989 ____ 2.19 ____ 11.24 ___ 23.15 ____ 14.08 1990 ____ 2.05 ____ 11.63 ___ 23.74 ____ 15.52 1991 ____ 3.98 ____ 13.52 ___ 24.61 ____ 14.48 1992 ____ 2.91 ____ 10.28 ___ 22.50 ____ 13.37 1993 ____ 1.67 ____ 11.61 ___ 24.94 ____ 14.09 1994 ____-0.47 ____ 11.50 ___ 24.55 ____ 15.11 1995 ____ 2.84 ____ 11.63 ___ 24.74 ____ 14.35 1996 ____ 0.15 ____ 10.41 ___ 22.83 ____ 13.22 1997 ____ 3.24 ____ 10.55 ___ 22.96 ____ 13.39 1998 ____ 4.24 ____ 12.53 ___ 23.41 ____ 14.79 1999 ____ 3.70 ____ 11.68 ___ 24.83 ____ 14.76 2000 ____ 2.33 ____ 12.17 ___ 22.28 ____ 13.39 2001 ____ 0.85 ____ 11.41 ___ 23.85 ____ 15.35 2002 ____ 5.30 ____ 12.02 ___ 24.43 ____ 13.96 2003 ____-0.45 ____ 10.30 ___ 23.11 ____ 14.26 2004 ____ 0.24 ____ 12.28 ___ 22.94 ____ 14.35 2005 ____ 1.89 ____ 10.63 ___ 25.04 ____ 15.70 2006 ____ 2.94 ____ 12.21 ___ 23.83 ____ 14.57 2007 ____ 2.46 ____ 11.43 ___ 23.04 ____ 15.43 2008 ____ 2.45 ____ 11.41 ___ 24.11 ____ 13.65 2009 ____ 1.24 ____ 11.74 ___ 22.20 ____ 14.17 2010 ____ 1.02 ____ 13.96 ___ 25.44 ____ 15.02 2011 ____ 0.46 ____ 12.06 ___ 24.41 ____ 15.37 2012 ____ 4.72 ____ 13.85 ___ 24.17 ____ 13.83 2013 ____ 2.69 ____ 11.09 ___ 24.28 ____ 14.33 2014 ____ 0.50 ____ 10.74 ___ 23.54 ____ 14.55 2015 ____-0.32 ____ 12.02 ___ 24.63 ____ 16.54 2016 ____ 5.00 ____ 12.78 ___ 24.85 ____ 15.63 2017 ____ 4.05 ____ 11.39 ___ 23.48 ____ 15.78 2018 ____ 2.06 ____ 11.20 ___ 24.33 ____ 14.22 2019 ____ 2.37 ____ 11.74 ___ 24.22 ____ 14.48 2020 ____ 3.98 ____ 11.61 ___ 24.93 ____ 15.50 2021 ____ 2.26 ____ 12.47 ___ 24.41 ____ 15.28 2022 ____ 2.85 ____ 12.24 ___ 24.85 ____ 15.05 2023 ____ 5.02 ____ 12.76 ___ 23.52 ____ 14.93 2024 ____ 4.76 ____ 13.44 ___ 24.78 ____ 15.76 2025 ____ 1.57 Seasonal Mean Temperatures at NYC adjusted for urban heat island (Adjusted from 0.1 C 1881-1890 to 1.1 C 1981-1990 in 0.1 increments per decade, steady state after 1990 (1.1 C). ... These values are subtracted from the table above. Winter seasons that overlap decade boundaries are adjusted by 0.03 less. Ranks will be made available for this adjusted more representative series. YEAR ___ winter _ spring _ summer _ autumn 1869 ____ 1.54 ____ 8.47 ___ 21.83 ____ 11.26 1870 ____ 1.39 ____ 9.21 ___ 23.85 ____ 13.73 1871 ____-0.63____11.22 ___ 21.87 ____ 10.96 1872 ____-1.50 ____ 8.41 ___ 23.76 ____ 11.96 1873 ____-2.07 ____ 8.37 ___ 22.54 ____ 11.52 1874 ____ 1.11 ____ 7.59 ___ 21.91 ____ 12.87 1875 ____-2.45 ____ 7.65 ___ 22.24 ____ 11.28 1876 ____ 1.17 ____ 8.44 ___ 24.46 ____ 11.76 1877 ____-1.18 ____ 8.72 ___ 23.07 ____ 13.18 1878 ____ 0.72 ____11.26 ___ 22.90 ____ 13.85 1879 ____-1.54 ____10.31 ___ 22.44 ____ 13.15 1880 ____ 3.28 ____10.81 ___ 23.09 ____ 11.74 1881 ____-2.92 _____ 9.03 ___ 21.51 ____ 14.97 1882 ____ 1.27 _____ 8.90 ___ 23.05 ____ 12.38 1883 ____-1.95 _____ 8.22 ___ 22.66 ____ 11.47 1884 ____-1.08 _____ 9.08 ___ 22.29 ____ 14.34 1885 ____-2.01 _____ 8.03 ___ 23.21 ____ 12.38 1886 ____-1.21 ____ 10.03 ___ 21.57 ____ 12.64 1887 ____-1.08 _____ 8.49 ___ 22.46 ____ 10.90 1888 ____-1.93 _____ 6.94 ___ 21.79 ____ 11.18 1889 ____ 0.31 ____ 10.72 ___ 21.81 ____ 11.68 1890 ____ 3.51 _____ 8.97 ___ 22.10 ____ 12.77 1891 ____ 0.61 _____ 8.56 ___ 22.63 ____ 13.61 1892 ____ 1.87 _____ 8.35 ___ 23.26 ____ 11.86 1893 ____-2.18 _____ 7.97 ___ 21.88 ____ 12.10 1894 ____-0.07 ____ 10.34 ___ 22.02 ____ 12.69 1895 ____-1.18 _____ 9.43 ___ 22.97 ____ 13.73 1896 ____ 0.50 ____ 10.15 ___ 23.26 ____ 13.71 1897 ____ 0.21 ____ 10.32 ___ 22.13 ____ 13.43 1898 ____ 2.28 ____ 10.12 ___ 23.25 ____ 14.51 1899 ____-0.59 _____ 9.74 ___ 23.78 ____ 13.63 1900 ____ 0.60 _____ 8.50 ___ 23.34 ____ 15.52 1901 ____-0.44 _____ 8.52 ___ 23.27 ____ 12.26 1902 ____-0.30 ____ 10.42 ___ 21.09 ____ 14.61 1903 ____-0.28 ____ 12.03 ___ 20.42 ____ 12.88 1904 ____-2.86 _____ 9.03 ___ 22.26 ____ 12.11 1905 ____-2.45 ____ 10.03 ___ 22.91 ____ 13.98 1906 ____ 2.31 _____ 9.76 ___ 24.11 ____ 13.98 1907 ____-0.49 _____ 8.85 ___ 22.55 ____ 12.63 1908 ____ 0.40 ____ 10.99 ___ 24.26 ____ 14.55 1909 ____ 2.29 _____ 9.18 ___ 22.26 ____ 13.55 1910 ____-0.76 ____ 11.38 ___ 22.27 ____ 13.50 1911 ____-0.07 _____ 8.97 ___ 22.60 ____ 12.65 1912 ____-1.16 _____ 9.65 ___ 22.03 ____ 13.97 1913 ____ 2.45 ____ 11.08 ___ 22.56 ____ 13.40 1914 ____-0.48 _____ 9.40 ___ 21.75 ____ 13.45 1915 ____ 0.71 _____ 9.64 ___ 21.36 ____ 14.04 1916 ____-0.14 _____ 8.15 ___ 21.80 ____ 13.42 1917 ____-0.55 _____ 8.12 ___ 23.01 ____ 11.12 1918 ____-3.90 ____ 11.10 ___ 22.36 ____ 13.21 1919 ____ 2.17 ____ 10.58 ___ 22.02 ____ 13.67 1920 ____-2.97 _____ 9.01 ___ 22.06 ____ 14.05 1921 ____ 1.14 ____ 12.41 ___ 22.48 ____ 13.78 1922 ____-0.81 ____ 10.81 ___ 22.07 ____ 13.59 1923 ____-1.65 _____ 8.97 ___ 22.43 ____ 13.11 1924 ____ 0.91 _____ 8.69 ___ 21.76 ____ 12.39 1925 ____ 0.30 ____ 10.54 ___ 22.68 ____ 11.96 1926 ____-0.50 _____ 8.22 ___ 21.70 ____ 12.41 1927 ____-0.46 _____ 9.61 ___ 20.57 ____ 14.44 1928 ____ 0.93 _____ 8.87 ___ 22.22 ____ 13.39 1929 ____ 1.00 ____ 10.95 ___ 22.55 ____ 13.24 1930 ____ 1.37 _____ 9.94 ___ 23.11 ____ 13.78 1931 ____ 0.41 _____ 9.94 ___ 22.99 ____ 15.98 1932 ____ 3.90 _____ 9.08 ___ 22.97 ____ 13.45 1933 ____ 2.64 _____ 9.99 ___ 22.93 ____ 12.64 1934 ____-2.21 _____ 9.64 ___ 23.01 ____ 13.58 1935 ____-1.06 _____ 9.97 ___ 22.73 ____ 13.36 1936 ____-2.64 ____ 10.79 ___ 22.62 ____ 12.82 1937 ____ 2.66 _____ 9.46 ___ 23.29 ____ 12.70 1938 ____ 0.68 ____ 11.01 ___ 23.31 ____ 13.86 1939 ____ 1.29 _____ 9.85 ___ 23.79 ____ 13.03 1940 ____-0.82 _____ 8.03 ___ 21.99 ____ 12.31 1941 ____-0.13 ____ 10.71 ___ 22.58 ____ 14.98 1942 ____-0.20 ____ 11.54 ___ 22.43 ____ 13.76 1943 ____-0.61 _____ 9.10 ___ 23.93 ____ 12.73 1944 ____ 0.06 _____ 9.95 ___ 24.02 ____ 13.60 1945 ____-1.55 ____ 12.24 ___ 22.06 ____ 13.76 1946 ____-0.55 ____ 11.54 ___ 21.52 ____ 15.23 1947 ____ 0.86 _____ 8.97 ___ 22.24 ____ 14.19 1948 ____-1.79 _____ 9.91 ___ 22.60 ____ 14.74 1949 ____ 2.91 ____ 11.12 ___ 24.22 ____ 14.04 1950 ____ 2.34 _____ 8.13 ___ 21.97 ____ 13.60 1951 ____ 1.40 ____ 10.65 ___ 22.37 ____ 12.96 1952 ____ 1.98 ____ 10.29 ___ 23.79 ____ 13.68 1953 ____ 2.61 ____ 10.88 ___ 23.49 ____ 14.90 1954 ____ 2.20 ____ 10.16 ___ 22.37 ____ 13.92 1955 ____ 0.29 ____ 11.16 ___ 23.63 ____ 13.25 1956 ____-0.37 _____ 8.14 ___ 21.88 ____ 12.83 1957 ____ 1.18 ____ 10.72 ___ 23.20 ____ 13.88 1958 ____-0.15 _____ 9.63 ___ 21.89 ____ 13.09 1959 ____-1.43 ____ 11.11 ___ 23.09 ____ 14.37 1960 ____ 1.54 _____ 9.20 ___ 22.40 ____ 13.98 1961 ____-1.00 _____ 9.17 ___ 23.32 ____ 15.30 1962 ____-0.18 ____ 11.12 ___ 21.86 ____ 11.97 1963 ____-2.03 ____ 10.68 ___ 21.95 ____ 13.79 1964 ____-0.19 ____ 10.62 ___ 22.04 ____ 13.10 1965 ____-0.16 ____ 10.39 ___ 21.62 ____ 13.10 1966 ____ 1.28 _____ 9.84 ___ 24.28 ____ 13.10 1967 ____ 0.27 _____ 7.69 ___ 22.44 ____ 12.14 1968 ____-1.31 ____ 10.56 ___ 22.62 ____ 14.28 1969 ____-0.40 ____ 11.19 ___ 23.04 ____ 13.38 1970 ____-1.73 _____ 9.99 ___ 23.10 ____ 14.32 1971 ____-0.88 _____ 9.42 ___ 23.42 ____ 14.45 1972 ____ 1.09 _____ 9.59 ___ 22.09 ____ 12.22 1973 ____ 0.94 ____ 10.72 ___ 23.52 ____ 14.19 1974 ____ 0.85 ____ 10.54 ___ 22.45 ____ 12.52 1975 ____ 2.05 _____ 9.72 ___ 22.09 ____ 13.76 1976 ____ 0.33 ____ 10.78 ___ 22.39 ____ 11.07 1977 ____-2.95 ____ 11.87 ___ 22.87 ____ 12.78 1978 ____-1.94 _____ 9.39 ___ 22.28 ____ 12.28 1979 ____-0.63 ____ 11.74 ___ 22.50 ____ 14.61 1980 ____ 0.89 ____ 11.09 ___ 23.80 ____ 12.82 1981 ____-0.68 ____ 11.36 ___ 23.25 ____ 12.55 1982 ____-0.75 ____ 10.25 ___ 21.81 ____ 13.94 1983 ____ 2.18 ____ 10.11 ___ 23.83 ____ 14.20 1984 ____ 0.70 _____ 8.94 ___ 22.95 ____ 13.53 1985 ____ 1.35 ____ 11.98 ___ 21.90 ____ 14.46 1986 ____-0.30 ____ 11.79 ___ 21.99 ____ 12.90 1987 ____ 0.48 ____ 11.16 ___ 22.79 ____ 12.49 1988 ____ 0.38 ____ 10.29 ___ 23.70 ____ 12.53 1989 ____ 1.09 ____ 10.14 ___ 22.05 ____ 12.98 1990 ____ 0.95 ____ 10.53 ___ 22.64 ____ 14.42 1991 ____ 2.88 ____ 12.42 ___ 23.51 ____ 13.38 1992 ____ 1.81 _____ 9.18 ___ 21.40 ____ 12.27 1993 ____ 0.57 ____ 10.51 ___ 23.84 ____ 12.99 1994 ____-1.57 ____ 10.40 ___ 23.45 ____ 14.01 1995 ____ 1.74 ____ 10.53 ___ 23.64 ____ 13.25 1996 ____-0.95 _____ 9.31 ___ 21.73 ____ 12.12 1997 ____ 2.14 _____ 9.45 ___ 21.86 ____ 12.29 1998 ____ 3.14 ____ 11.43 ___ 22.31 ____ 13.69 1999 ____ 2.60 ____ 10.58 ___ 23.73 ____ 13.66 2000 ____ 1.23 ____ 11.07 ___ 21.18 ____ 12.29 2001 ____-0.25 ____ 10.31 ___ 22.75 ____ 14.25 2002 ____ 4.20 ____ 10.92 ___ 23.33 ____ 12.86 2003 ____-1.55 _____ 9.20 ___ 22.01 ____ 13.16 2004 ____-0.86 ____ 11.18 ___ 21.84 ____ 13.25 2005 ____ 0.79 _____ 9.53 ___ 23.94 ____ 14.60 2006 ____ 1.84 ____ 11.11 ___ 22.73 ____ 13.47 2007 ____ 1.36 ____ 10.33 ___ 21.94 ____ 14.33 2008 ____ 1.35 ____ 10.31 ___ 23.01 ____ 12.55 2009 ____ 0.14 ____ 10.64 ___ 21.10 ____ 13.07 2010 ____-0.08 ____ 12.86 ___24.34 ____ 13.92 2011 ____-0.64 ____ 10.96 ___ 23.31 ____ 14.27 2012 ____ 3.62 ____ 12.75 ___ 23.07 ____ 12.73 2013 ____ 1.59 _____ 9.99 ___ 23.18 ____ 13.23 2014 ____-0.60 _____ 9.64 ___ 22.44 ____13.45 2015 ____-1.42 ____ 10.92 ___ 23.53 ____ 15.44 2016 ____ 3.90 ____ 11.68 ___ 23.75 ____ 14.53 2017 ____ 2.95 ____ 10.29 ___ 22.38 ____ 14.68 2018 ____ 0.96 ____ 10.10 ___ 23.23 ____ 13.12 2019 ____ 1.27 ____ 10.64 ___ 23.12 ____ 13.38 2020 ____ 2.88 ____ 10.51 ___ 23.83 ____14.40 2021 ____ 1.16 ____ 11.37 ___ 23.31 ____ 14.18 2022 ____ 1.75 ____ 11.14 ___ 23.75 ____ 13.95 2023 ____ 3.92 ____ 11.66 ___22.42 ____13.83 2024 ____ 3.66 ____ 12.34 ___ 23.68___ 14.66 2025 ____ 0.47 Ranked seasonal means for NYC (adjusted for urban heat island) 156 years are ranked. The median position is average of 78th warmest and coldest. Warmest seasons are at the top of these ranked tables; coldest are at the bottom. Ties are not directly indicated and are listed in chronological order. __ Winter 2024-25 will enter table 74th warmest 0.47 C . 2025 median is 79th warmest and coldest. warmest ....................................................................................................... coldest RANK ___ winter _________ spring _______ summer _____ autumn ______ RANK _01 __ 2001-2002 4.20 __ 2010 12.86 __ 1876 24.46 __ 1931 15.98 ___ 156 _02 __ 2022-2023 3.92 __ 2012 12.75 __ 2010 24.34 __ 1900 15.52 ___ 155 _03 __ 1931-1932 3.90 __ 1991 12.42 __ 1966 24.28 __ 2015 15.44 ___ 154 _04 __ 2015-2016 3.90 __ 1921 12.41 __ 2005 23.94 __ 1961 15.30 ___ 153 _05 __ 2023-2024 3.66 __ 2024 12.34 __ 1908 24.26 __ 1946 15.23 ___ 152 _06 __ 2011-2012 3.62 __ 1945 12.24 __ 1949 24.22 __ 1941 14.98 ___ 151 _07 __ 1889-1890 3.51 __ 1903 12.03 __ 1906 24.11 __ 1881 14.97 ___ 150 _08 __ 1879-1880 3.28 __ 1985 11.98 __ 1944 24.02 __ 1953 14.90 ___ 149 _09 __ 1997-1998 3.14 __ 1977 11.87 __ 1943 23.93 __ 1948 14.74 ___ 148 _10 __ 2016-2017 2.95 __ 1986 11.79 __ 1870 23.85 __ 2017 14.68 ___ 147 _11 __ 1948-1949 2.91 __ 1979 11.74 __ 1993 23.84 __ 2024 14.66 ___ 146 _12 __ 1990-1991 2.88 __ 2016 11.68 __ 1983 23.83 __ 1902 14.61 ___ 145 _13 __ 2019-2020 2.88 __ 2023 11.66 __ 2020 23.83 __ 1979 14.61 ___ 144 _14 __ 1936-1937 2.66 __ 1942 11.54 __ 1980 23.80 __ 2005 14.60 ___ 143 _15 __ 1932-1933 2.64 __ 1946 11.54 __ 1939 23.79 __ 1908 14.55 ___ 142 _16 __ 1952-1953 2.61 __ 1998 11.43 __ 1952 23.79 __ 2016 14.53 ___ 141 _17 __ 1998-1999 2.60 __ 1910 11.38 __ 1899 23.78 __ 1898 14.51 ___ 140 _18 __ 1912-1913 2.45 __ 2021 11.37 __ 1872 23.76 __ 1971 14.45 ___ 139 _19 __ 1949-1950 2.34 __ 1981 11.36 __ 2016 23.75 __ 1985 14.46 ___ 138 _20 __ 1905-1906 2.31 __ 1878 11.26 __ 2022 23.75 __ 1927 14.44 ___ 137 _21 __ 1908-1909 2.29 __ 1871 11.22 __ 1999 23.73 __ 1990 14.42 ___ 136 _22 __ 1897-1898 2.28 __ 1969 11.19 __ 1988 23.70 __ 2020 14.40 ___ 135 _23 __ 1953-1954 2.20 __ 2004 11.18 __ 2024 23.68 __ 1959 14.37 ___ 134 _24 __ 1982-1983 2.18 __ 1955 11.16 __ 1995 23.64 __ 1884 14.34 ___ 133 _25 __ 1918-1919 2.17 __ 1987 11.16 __ 1955 23.63 __ 2007 14.33 ___ 132 _26 __ 1996-1997 2.14 __ 2022 11.14 __ 2015 23.53 __ 1970 14.32 ___ 131 _27 __ 1974-1975 2.05 __ 1949 11.12 __ 1973 23.52 __ 1968 14.28 ___ 130 _28 __ 1951-1952 1.98 __ 1962 11.12 __ 1991 23.51 __ 2011 14.27 ___ 129 _29 __ 1891-1892 1.87 __ 1959 11.11 __ 1953 23.49 __ 2001 14.25 ___ 128 _30 __ 2005-2006 1.84 __ 2006 11.11 __ 1994 23.45 __ 1983 14.20 ___ 127 _31 __ 1991-1992 1.81 __ 1918 11.10 __ 1971 23.42 __ 1947 14.19 ___ 126 _32 __ 2021-2022 1.75 __ 1980 11.09 __ 1900 23.34 __ 1973 14.19 ___ 125 _33 __ 1994-1995 1.74 __ 1913 11.08 __ 2002 23.33 __ 2021 14.18 ___ 124 _34 __ 2012-2013 1.59 __ 2000 11.07 __ 1961 23.32 __ 1920 14.05 ___ 123 _35 __ 1868-1869 1.54 __ 1938 11.01 __ 1938 23.31 __ 1915 14.04 ___ 122 _36 __ 1959-1960 1.54 __ 1908 10.99 __ 2011 23.31 __ 1949 14.04 ___ 121 _37 __ 1950-1951 1.40 __ 2011 10.96 __ 2021 23.31 __ 1994 14.01 ___ 120 _38 __ 1869-1870 1.39 __ 1929 10.95 __ 1937 23.29 __ 1905 13.98 ___ 119 _39 __ 1929-1930 1.37 __ 2002 10.92 __ 1901 23.27 __ 1906 13.98 ___ 118 _40 __ 2006-2007 1.36 __ 2015 10.92 __ 1892 23.26 __ 1960 13.98 ___ 117 _41 __ 1984-1985 1.35 __ 1953 10.88 __ 1896 23.26 __ 1912 13.97 ___ 116 _42 __ 2007-2008 1.35 __ 1880 10.81 __ 1898 23.25 __ 2022 13.95 ___ 115 _43 __ 1938-1939 1.29 __ 1922 10.81 __ 1981 23.25 __ 1982 13.94 ___ 114 _44 __ 1965-1966 1.28 __ 1936 10.79 __ 2018 23.23 __ 1954 13.92 ___ 113 _45 __ 1881-1882 1.27 __ 1976 10.78 __ 1885 23.21 __ 2010 13.92 ___ 112 _46 __ 2018-2019 1.27 __ 1889 10.72 __ 1957 23.20 __ 1957 13.88 ___ 111 _47 __ 1999-2000 1.23 __ 1957 10.72 __ 2013 23.18 __ 1938 13.86 ___ 110 _48 __ 1956-1957 1.18 __ 1973 10.72 __ 2019 23.12 __ 1878 13.85 ___ 109 _49 __ 1875-1876 1.17 __ 1941 10.71 __ 1930 23.11 __ 2023 13.83 ___ 108 _50 __ 2020-2021 1.16 __ 1963 10.68 __ 1970 23.10 __ 1963 13.79 ___ 107 _51 __ 1920-1921 1.14 __ 1951 10.65 __ 1880 23.09 __ 1921 13.78 ___ 106 _52 __ 1873-1874 1.11 ___ 2009 10.64 __ 1959 23.09 __ 1930 13.78 ___ 105 _53 __ 1971-1972 1.09 __ 2019 10.64 __ 1877 23.07 __ 1942 13.76 ___ 104 _54 __ 1988-1989 1.09 __ 1964 10.62 __ 2012 23.07 __ 1945 13.76 ___ 103 _55 __ 1928-1929 1.00 __ 1919 10.58 __ 1882 23.05 __ 1975 13.76 ___ 102 _56 __ 2017-2018 0.96 __ 1999 10.58 __ 1969 23.04 __ 1870 13.73 ___ 101 _57 __ 1989-1990 0.95 __ 1968 10.56 __ 1917 23.01 __ 1895 13.73 ___ 100 _58 __ 1972-1973 0.94 __ 1925 10.54 __ 1934 23.01 __ 1896 13.71 ____ 99 _59 __ 1927-1928 0.93 __ 1974 10.54 __ 2008 23.01 __ 1998 13.69 ____ 98 _60 __ 1923-1924 0.91 __ 1990 10.53 __ 1931 22.99 __ 1952 13.68 ____ 97 _61 __ 1979-1980 0.89 __ 1996 10.53 __ 1895 22.97 __ 1919 13.67 ____ 96 _62 __ 1946-1947 0.86 __ 1993 10.51 __ 1932 22.97 __ 1999 13.66 ____ 95 _63 __ 1973-1974 0.85 __ 2020 10.51 __ 1894 22.95 __ 1899 13.63 ____ 94 _64 __ 2004-2005 0.79 __ 1902 10.42 __ 1933 22.93 __ 1891 13.61 ____ 93 _65 __ 1877-1878 0.72 __ 1994 10.40 __ 1905 22.91 __ 1944 13.60 ____ 92 _66 __ 1914-1915 0.71 __ 1965 10.39 __ 1878 22.90 __ 1950 13.60 ____ 91 _67 __ 1983-1984 0.70 __ 1894 10.34 __ 1977 22.87 __ 1922 13.59 ____ 90 _68 __ 1937-1938 0.68 __ 2007 10.33 __ 1987 22.79 __ 1934 13.58 ____ 89 _69 __ 1890-1891 0.61 __ 1897 10.32 __ 2001 22.75 __ 1909 13.55 ____ 88 _70 __ 1899-1900 0.60 __ 1879 10.31 __ 1935 22.73 __ 1984 13.53 ____ 87 _71 __ 1992-1993 0.57 __ 2001 10.31 __ 2006 22.73 __ 1910 13.50 ____ 86 _72 __ 1895-1896 0.50 __ 2008 10.31 __ 1925 22.68 __ 2006 13.47 ____ 85 _73 __ 1986-1987 0.48 __ 1952 10.29 __ 1883 22.66 __ 1914 13.45 ____ 84 _74 __ 1930-1931 0.41 __ 1988 10.29 __ 1990 22.64 __ 1932 13.45 ____ 83 _75 __ 1907-1908 0.40 __ 2017 10.29 __ 1891 22.63 __ 2014 13.45 ____ 82 _76 __ 1987-1988 0.38 __ 1982 10.25 __ 1936 22.62 __ 1897 13.43 ____ 81 _77 __ 1975-1976 0.33 __ 1954 10.16 __ 1968 22.62 __ 1916 13.42 ____ 80 _78 __ 1888-1889 0.31 __ 1896 10.15 __ 1911 22.60 __ 1928 13.39 ____ 79 median (avg) _79 __ 1924-1925 0.30 __ 1989 10.14 __ 1948 22.60 __ 1913 13.40 ____ 78 median (avg) _80 __ 1954-1955 0.29 __ 1898 10.12 __ 1941 22.58 __ 1969 13.38 ___ 77 _81 __ 1966-1967 0.27 __ 1983 10.11 __ 1913 22.56 __ 1991 13.38 ___ 76 _82 __ 1896-1897 0.21 __ 2018 10.10 __ 1907 22.55 __ 2019 13.38 ___ 75 _83 __ 2008-2009 0.14 __ 1886 10.03 __ 1929 22.55 __ 1935 13.36 ___ 74 _84 __ 1943-1944 0.06 __ 1905 10.03 __ 1873 22.54 __ 1955 13.25 ___ 73 _85 __ 1893-1894 -0.07 __ 1933 9.99 __ 1979 22.50 __ 1995 13.25 ___ 72 _86 __ 1910-1911 -0.07 __ 1970 9.99 __ 1921 22.48 __ 2004 13.25 ___ 71 _87 __ 2009-2010 -0.08 __ 2013 9.99 __ 1887 22.46 __ 1929 13.24 ___ 70 _88 __ 1940-1941 -0.13 __ 1935 9.97 __ 1974 22.45 __ 2013 13.23 ___ 69 _89 __ 1915-1916 -0.14 __ 1944 9.95 __ 1879 22.44 __ 1918 13.21 ___ 68 _90 __ 1957-1958 -0.15 __ 1930 9.94 __ 1967 22.44 __ 1877 13.18 ___ 67 _91 __ 1964-1965 -0.16 __ 1931 9.94 __ 2014 22.44 __ 2003 13.16 ___ 66 _92 __ 1961-1962 -0.18 __ 1948 9.91 __ 1923 22.43 __ 1879 13.15 ___ 65 _93 __ 1963-1964 -0.19 __ 1939 9.85 __ 1942 22.43 __ 2018 13.12 ___ 64 _94 __ 1941-1942 -0.20 __ 1966 9.84 __ 2023 22.42 __ 1923 13.11 ___ 63 _95 __ 2000-2001 -0.25 __ 1906 9.76 __ 1960 22.40 __ 1964 13.10 ___ 62 _96 __ 1902-1903 -0.28 __ 1899 9.74 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1965 13.10 ___ 61 _97 __ 1901-1902 -0.30 __ 1975 9.72 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1966 13.10 ___ 60 _98 __ 1985-1986 -0.30 __ 1912 9.65 __ 1951 22.37 __ 1958 13.09 ___ 59 _99 __ 1955-1956 -0.37 __ 1915 9.64 __ 1954 22.37 __ 2009 13.07 ___ 58 100 __ 1968-1969 -0.40 __ 1934 9.64 __ 1918 22.36 __ 1939 13.03 ___ 57 101 __ 1900-1901 -0.44 __ 2014 9.64 __ 1998 22.31 __ 1993 12.99 ___ 56 102 __ 1926-1927 -0.46 __ 1958 9.63 __ 1884 22.29 __ 1989 12.98 ___ 55 103 __ 1913-1914 -0.48 __ 1927 9.61 __ 1978 22.28 __ 1951 12.96 ___ 54 104 __ 1906-1907 -0.49 __ 1972 9.59 __ 1910 22.27 __ 1986 12.90 ___ 53 105 __ 1925-1926 -0.50 __ 2005 9.53 __ 1904 22.26 __ 1903 12.88 ___ 52 106 __ 1916-1917 -0.55 __ 1937 9.46 __ 1909 22.26 __ 1874 12.87 ___ 51 107 __ 1945-1946 -0.55 __ 1997 9.45 __ 1875 22.24 __ 2002 12.86 ___ 50 108 __ 1898-1899 -0.59 __ 1895 9.43 __ 1947 22.24 __ 1956 12.83 ___ 49 109 __ 2013-2014 -0.60 __ 1971 9.42 __ 1928 22.22 __ 1936 12.82 ___ 48 110 __ 1942-1943 -0.61 __ 1914 9.40 __ 1897 22.13 __ 1980 12.82 ___ 47 111 __ 1870-1871 -0.63 __ 1978 9.39 __ 1890 22.10 __ 2012 12.82 ___ 46 112 __ 1978-1979 -0.63 __ 1996 9.31 __ 1972 22.09 __ 1977 12.78 ___ 45 113 __ 2010-2011 -0.64 __ 1870 9.21 __ 1975 22.09 __ 1890 12.77 ___ 44 114 __ 1980-1981 -0.68 __ 1960 9.20 __ 1922 22.07 __ 1911 12.73 ___ 43 115 __ 1981-1982 -0.75 __ 2003 9.20 __ 1920 22.06 __ 1943 12.73 ___ 42 116 __ 1909-1910 -0.76 __ 1909 9.18 __ 1945 22.06 __ 1937 12.70 ___ 41 117 __ 1921-1922 -0.81 __ 1992 9.18 __ 1989 22.05 __ 1894 12.69 ___ 40 118 __ 1939-1940 -0.82 __ 1961 9.17 __ 1964 22.04 __ 1886 12.64 ___ 39 119 __ 1970-1971 -0.88 __ 1943 9.10 __ 1912 22.03 __ 1907 12.64 ___ 38 120 __ 2003-2004 -0.86 __ 1884 9.08 __ 1894 22.02 __ 1933 12.64 ___ 37 121 __ 1995-1996 -0.95 __ 1932 9.08 __ 1919 22.02 __ 1981 12.55 ___ 36 122 __ 1960-1961 -1.00 __ 1881 9.03 __ 2003 22.01 __ 2008 12.55 ___ 35 123 __ 1934-1935 -1.06 __ 1904 9.03 __ 1940 21.99 __ 1988 12.53 ___ 34 124 __ 1883-1884 -1.08 __ 1920 9.01 __ 1986 21.99 __ 1974 12.52 ___ 33 125 __ 1886-1887 -1.08 __ 1890 8.97 __ 1950 21.97 __ 1987 12.49 ___ 32 126 __ 1911-1912 -1.16 __ 1911 8.97 __ 1963 21.95 __ 1926 12.41 ___ 31 127 __ 1876-1877 -1.18 __ 1923 8.97 __ 2007 21.94 __ 1924 12.39 ___ 30 128 __ 1894-1895 -1.18 __ 1947 8.97 __ 1874 21.91 __ 1882 12.38 ___ 29 129 __ 1885-1886 -1.21 __ 1984 8.94 __ 1985 21.90 __ 1885 12.38 ___ 28 130 __ 1967-1968 -1.31 __ 1882 8.90 __ 1958 21.89 __ 1940 12.31 ___ 27 131 __ 2014-2015 -1.42 __ 1928 8.87 __ 1893 21.88 __ 1997 12.29 ___ 26 132 __ 1958-1959 -1.43 __ 1907 8.85 __ 1956 21.88 __ 2000 12.29 ___ 25 133 __ 1871-1872 -1.50 __ 1877 8.72 __ 1871 21.87 __ 1978 12.28 ___ 24 134 __ 1878-1879 -1.54 __ 1924 8.69 __ 1962 21.86 __ 1992 12.27 ___ 23 135 __ 1944-1945 -1.55 __ 1891 8.56 __ 1997 21.86 __ 1901 12.26 ___ 22 136 __ 2002-2003 -1.55 __ 1901 8.52 __ 2004 21.84 __ 1972 12.22 ___ 21 137 __ 1993-1994 -1.57 __ 1900 8.50 __ 1869 21.83 __ 1967 12.14 ___ 20 138 __ 1922-1923 -1.65 __ 1887 8.49 __ 1889 21.81 __ 1996 12.12 ___ 19 139 __ 1969-1970 -1.73 __ 1869 8.47 __ 1982 21.81 __ 1904 12.11 ___ 18 140 __ 1947-1948 -1.79 __ 1876 8.44 __ 1916 21.80 __ 1893 12.10 ___ 17 141 __ 1887-1888 -1.93 __ 1872 8.41 __ 1888 21.79 __ 1962 11.97 ___ 16 142 __ 1977-1978 -1.94 __ 1873 8.37 __ 1924 21.76 __ 1872 11.96 ___ 15 143 __ 1882-1883 -1.95 __ 1892 8.35 __ 1914 21.75 __ 1925 11.96 ___ 14 144 __ 1884-1885 -2.01 __ 1883 8.22 __ 1996 21.73 __ 1892 11.86 ___ 13 145 __ 1962-1963 -2.03 __ 1926 8.22 __ 1926 21.70 __ 1876 11.76 ___ 12 146 __ 1872-1873 -2.07 __ 1916 8.15 __ 1965 21.62 __ 1880 11.74 ___ 11 147 __ 1892-1893 -2.18 __ 1956 8.14 __ 1886 21.57 __ 1889 11.68 ___ 10 148 __ 1933-1934 -2.21 __ 1950 8.13 __ 1946 21.52 __ 1873 11.52 ___ 09 149 __ 1874-1875 -2.45 __ 1917 8.12 __ 1881 21,51 __ 1883 11.47 ___ 08 150 __ 1904-1905 -2.45 __ 1885 8.03 __ 1992 21.40 __ 1875 11.28 ___ 07 151 __ 1935-1936 -2.64 __ 1940 8.03 __ 1915 21.36 __ 1869 11.26 ___ 06 152 __ 1903-1904 -2.86 __ 1893 7.97 __ 2000 21.18 __ 1888 11.18 ___ 05 153 __ 1880-1881 -2.92 __ 1967 7.69 __ 2009 21.10 __ 1917 11.12 ___ 04 154 __ 1976-1977 -2.95 __ 1875 7.65 __ 1902 21.09 __ 1976 11.07 ___ 03 155 __ 1919-1920 -2.97 __ 1874 7.59 __ 1927 20.57 __ 1871 10.96 ___ 02 156 __ 1917-1918 -3.90 __ 1888 6.94 __ 1903 20.42 __ 1887 10.90 ___ 01 _____________________ ___________________

Tie-breaker system as follows ... (1) Scores are based on total error. (2) Forecasters with same total will be ranked according to these tiebreakers: __ (a) _ Lowest maximum error. For example, 1,1,1,1 beats 2,0,1,1 __ (b) _ Lowest second highest error if (a) fails to separate. 2,1,1,0 beats 2,2,0,0 __ (c) _ Lowest third highest error if (a) and (b) fail, e.g., 3,2,1,1 beats 3,2,2,0. __ (d) _ Order of entry will separate exactly similar errors. 1,1,1,1 on June 7 beats 1,1,1,1 on June 10. +++++++++++++++ Contest will close at end of this week, the current values for seasonal max are DCA __ 94 on June 2nd IAD ___ 93 on June 2nd BWI ___ 97 on June 2nd RIC ___ 89 on Apr 20, 21 (87 on June 2)

The so-called Dark Day in New England, NY state and NJ, was probably caused by forest fire smoke. It was May 19 into May 20, 1780. (1780 also had a very severe hurricane season in the Caribbean) ... Quote from an observer in NJ ... We were here [New Jersey] at the time the “dark day” happened, (19th of May;) it has been said that the darkness was not so great in New-Jersey as in New-England. How great it was there I do not know, but I know that it was very dark where I then was in New-Jersey; so much so that the fowls went to their roosts, the cocks crew and the whip-poor-wills sung their usual serenade; the people had to light candles in their houses to enable them to see to carry on their usual business; the night was as uncommonly dark as the day was. (he may have been referring to the absence of moonlight around a full moon) Reports stated that the darkness did not occur in PA.

Most of the Quebec fires are well to the north of the populated parts of the province and the road network so they have to be fought by crews dropped into the region by air. I believe there are almost a thousand firefighters on the job but this situation has built up over several weeks and a very large area of low-grade forest is now involved. I would think the fires might be more controlled by future rainfalls than any human efforts, these fires are too widespread and remote for human efforts to be fully effective. It is normally quite a wet region in summer so fingers crossed that the blocking patterns recede. Causes include the long dry spell in spring, scattered lightning strikes, and unfortunately arson cannot be ruled out in all cases. Arson seems to be a suspect in about 10-25% of wildfires across N America nowadays, motives include seeking work on fire crews, dramatizing climate change, and mental illness problems. An Alberta woman was recently convicted of arson related to 54 fires that she apparently started in central Alberta in 2021. It doesn't take much when the weather has been hot and dry for weeks, and 2021 had the heat dome. I don't suspect much campfire spread or train track sparking behind these Quebec fires, as those potential causes would be confined to the southern margins of the fire zone. Butts tossed out a window start as many fires as lightning apparently. Many Canadians suspect the 2016 Fort Mac fires were deliberately set, if not, they had a human cause as the origin was traced back to a campsite west of Fort McMurray and there had been no lightning (those fires began around April 29-30th). Meanwhile parts of western Canada have seen some improvement in their fire situations, thanks to rainfalls and suppression, once again a lot of the Alberta fires were well north of the population grid and mostly well away from roads. Locally our air quality is good because so far there are very few fires in the Pac NW states and we have a southerly air flow here.

We had this same air quality emergency in 2021 about a month after the heat dome, it was much warmer than you currently have it, around 90F but same air quality (readings above 300). I got very ill during that spell, not sure if it was COVID or the smoke affecting my lungs, but perhaps both. If you're at risk, take care. It took me about three weeks to recover fully from the lung problems. At least if the upper level flow returns to wessterly or southwessterly this smoke should stop flowing south but it may take a few days to vent it all away.

The spring season is in the books, relatively warm at both locations, in particular mid-April with several daily records falling at both Toronto and NYC. May was quite dry, at Toronto there were two dry spells, 8th-18th, and 21st-June 1st. Both locations hit 91F on June 2nd, not quite a record value for either, and then fell off to near 10 C by morning of 4th -- at NYC that proved to be within one degree of a record low set in 1926. The current northerly flow pattern is bringing in a lot of forest fire smoke from widespread blazes in central Quebec and air quality has been poor at times. No new work has been done in the thread files or on the attached excel files, but in both cases, all required data updates and file maintenance have been done. A project for the next quarter of the year will be to provide seasonal data for NYC which is not yet shown in the thread. (this data does exist for Toronto) ... files are stored so that they will open at site navigation info panels. Those will guide you to the various data blocks available -- these are large and complex files with a lot of information. Thiis is a link to the excel files posted on Net-weather (cannot post them here, too large) ... http://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/4/#comment-4863512

June 1 (87 NYC) and 2 (91 NYC) were hot days -- in the past, when NYC has started June with 90s on either or both of 1st and 2nd, the longest wait after June 2nd (whether it hit 90 on 1st or 2nd or both) for another 90 degree reading was 44 days to July 16th in 1918. It was very cool most of that period (record low max 59F on June 23rd, and then turned very hot from mid-July to mid-August (Aug 7, 1918 104F all-time August record), also 95F, 98F, 95F on July 21st to 23rd, and 96F on Aug 6th and 14th. In 1895 there were record high values May 31st to June 3rd (96, 96, 96, 95) and then no more 90s until July 7th; it was 95F on July 21 but even so, the summer was rather cool in general after mid-June but more record heat occurred in mid to late September (20th to 23rd all record highs 93, 95, 95, 97). In 1912 (86 June 1st) a max of 91 on June 2nd was not surpassed until June 29th (94F). July 8-11 had mid-90s, 16th hit 94F, after which the summer was cool/average. Most other cases, if they didn't continue hot for the following week, returned to heat around mid-June. Only two other years exceeded 89 on both June 1 and 2, namely 1895 and 1918 (94, 91). In 1925, 91 and 88 were followed by five very hot days, 94, 99, 99, 98, 96. (June 4-7 all records) ... Following that heat wave, the next 90+ reading in 1925 was 90 on June 10th and there were two more 90+ days in June, four in July and two in August but on the whole it was a rather cool summer, an average September and a very cool October followed. Nine years hit 90+ on only the 1st, and four others on only the 2nd, with 2023 making that five. Thus a total of 16 of 155 years of record have seen a 90+ reading on 1st-2nd and that increases to 19 for 1st-3rd. There were only three years to hit 90+ on June 3rd without having also registered 90+ on 1st or 2nd: 1871 (90 3rd, 90 4th), 1936 (90 3rd) and we all know what happened after a rather cool June in 1936, and then 1943 had 92, 95 on 3rd-4th, with several more hot spells that month, including 99, 96, 98 on 25th to 27th. In 1877 it was 89 on June 2nd and that summer did not return to any warmer reading until July 26th (90). August of that summer was a bit warmer than July. Other outcomes: 90 June 1, 1879 (82 2nd) was followed by 90, 91 on June 27th and 28th. 93 June 2, 1919 (74 1st) led into a warm week (92, 95 on June 3rd-4th, next 90+ was July 1st leading into a blistering 97, 99, 98 interval July 3-5. Sep 8-9 hit 93 and the summer was variable in general but often quite warm. Not quite a direct hit but June 2-6 1923 all around 90 (89, 88, 89, 92, 91) followed by record heat 20th to 26th -- most of these have been surpassed (98, 96, 82, 86, 93, 97, 94). More heat followed at intervals in July (99, 98 on 20th and 21st) but end of July and most of August were rather cool in 1923. In 1937 June 1st was 93F (2nd 79) and it next hit 90 on June 25th, with frequent 90s in July and August. (98, 100, 100 July 8-10) 1951 another near miss of 89, 83 to start June, and the next reading above 89 was 90F on July 15th. June 2nd 1961 (90) was soon followed by a record 96F on 13th. June 1st 1962 (92) was followed by four days in the low 90s June 16th to 19th. June 1st 1986 (90) was followed by 91F on June 23rd and 98, 98 July 6-7. June 1st 1987 (93) was followed by 94F on June 16th and 96F on 20th. June 1st 1988 (90) was first followed by 90, 93, 96, 96, 92 12th to 16th and 97, 98 June 21st, 22nd. Lots of heat followed all summer. June 1st 1989 (91) and 2nd (89) next returned to 90s on June 26th and 27th (90, 92). June 2nd 2000 (90) was followed by 92F on 10th and 11th. The rest of the summer was very cool, especially late July. 2007 another near miss (91 May 31, and 88, 89 June 1-2), first 90+ reading after that was 91 on June 26th. It was another rather cool summer with no readings above 92F. June 1st 2011 (90) was followed by 94, 95 on 8th and 9th. June 1st 2013 (90) and 2nd (88) were followed by 92, 91 on June 24th-25th. Since 2013 and before 2023, the earliest 90+ reading in June has been 92 on 6th, 2021. A general note would be that years with early June hot days often see severe heat in July and August, but not always. ___________________ At the other end of the scale, June 1-5 1945 had no reading above 63 F on 2nd, and 58, 53, 52, 55 on the other dates were all record low maxima. Traces of snow fell in upstate NY and southern ON in that cold spell with some 1-2" lake effect noted. 2015 also started June very cool with highs of 58, 55, 70, 65, 70.

LAST DAY FOR ENTRIES or EDITS (deadline 06z) _ UPDATE _ DEADLINE EXTENSION FOR EDITS BUT NO NEW ENTRIES Please check my recent post about duplicate entries (thanks to Olafminesaw for spotting them) ... I will extend the deadline by 48h to 06z June 7 for one category of edit, namely, to change any duplicate entry. New entries not allowed in that extension period. To be fair, anyone else can edit any submitted forecast. You would lose your original order of entry except if you change a duplicate forecast by one element and one number. Late edits of duplicates cannot become duplicates of any entries already made unless you specify a willingness to take an order of entry at your new forecast position. Note my comment yesterday that order of entry also determines rank of similar scores from different count forecasts. (e.g., 16/8/3 will score the same for 16/7/3 and 16/8/2, etc). Example, you change 14 7 4 to 14 7 5, no order of entry adjustment. You change 14 7 4 to 16 10 5, order of entry adjustment applies. New entries above note, I will add you to the table of entries in a later edit and move the table of forecasts to a June 7 posting after all forecast activity has ended. The count is already 2/0/0 (on its way to 19/12/4) __________________ If your entry duplicates only an "expert" forecast (e.g. CSU) that does not require any action, your rank will not be affected.

I reviewed the info you provided and all details are correct, so I have posted the entries as they appear now, to give entrants an easier path to making adjustments if they wish. So far, none of the "other" forecasts from off-site happen to overlap. Will review the situation again late Sunday near deadline and perhaps contact anyone who still has a "later duplicate" entry. Earlier duplicates do not need to take any action. (nor do later duplicates if you don't mind the restriction on eventual ranking) Another point not made earlier, identical scores from different forecasts will be ranked by order of entry.

Posting a bit early to allow entrants to review duplicate forecasts and see the full range of forecasts from other locations. Table of entries for 2023 Seasonal Tropical Contest _ number in brackets after forecaster name is the order of entry, applies to last revision or edit only _ Note: Entries are being received from American Weather Forum (AM), Net-weather (NW) and Boards.ie weather (IE). Contest will be ranked at end of season in two sets, one for American Weather Forum entrants only, and one for all entrants. Three additional entries are shown for NOAA, UKMO, and CSU. These will be scored and ranked but those ranks will not bump any forecasters down in the contest ranks. Scoring system: Start from 100 points. Deduct average of error and error squared for hurricanes and majors. Deduct 50% of same for storms. Example. For outcome 13/7/4. forecast of 15/8/1 loses (a) 50% of (2+4)/2 for storm error, 1.5 deduction; (b) (1+1)/2 for hurricane count error, 1.0 deduction; (c) (3+9)/2 for major hurricane count error, 6.0 deduction. Total deductions 8.5, score 100-8.5 = 91.5. This system gives more weight to accuracy of the prediction of stronger storms and reduces the chance of a contest-wide score degradation if there is an unusual number of named storms. Any total score calculation below 0 is scored at zero points. In past contest years, scores of 98 to 100 have often won the contest. The table of entries is ordered by count of storms, then hurricanes, and majors. forum _FORECASTER _________________ storms _ hurr _ major IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ____________________21 _____11 _____ 8 AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) _________21 _____11 _____ 5 --- ___ UK Met Office __________________ 20 ____ 11 _____ 5 AM _ Roger Smith (19) _________________ 19 ____ 12 _____ 4 AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) __________ 19 ____ 11 _____ 5 IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _____________________18 _____ 9 _____ 4 AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _______________17 _____10 _____ 4 NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) __________17 _____10 _____ 3 NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) _______ 16 _____11 _____ 5 NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) __________16 _____10 _____ 3 IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) __________________16 _____ 9 _____ 5 AM _ Ineedsnow (44) __________________ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 AM _ wkd (4) ___________________________ 16 _____ 7 _____ 4 AM _ solidicewx (28) ___________________ 16 _____ 7 _____ 4 AM _ yotaman (31) ______________________16 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ hotair (18) _________________________16 _____ 6 _____ 3 AM _ wxdude64 (15) ___________________ 16 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) _____________ 16 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ________________ 15 _____ 8 _____ 4 AM _ diggiebot (12) _____________________15 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ Torch Tiger (23) __________________ 15 _____ 7 _____ 3 --- ___ CSU _____________________________ 15 _____ 7 _____ 3 (updated June 1st) --- ___ TWC _____________________________15 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ Stebo (26) ________________________ 15 _____ 7 _____ 2 AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) ______________ 15 _____ 6 _____ 2 AM _ Marsman (14) ____________________ 15 _____ 4 _____ 2 --- ___ NOAA median ___________________14.5 ____7.0 ____2.5 AM _ JConsor (13) ______________________14 _____ 8 _____ 4 AM _ nvck (45) _________________________ 14 _____ 8 _____ 3 IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _____________________ 14 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _____________ 14 _____ 6 _____ 3 AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) _______________ 14 _____ 5 _____ 3 AM _ Yoda (40) _________________________ 13 _____ 7 _____ 4 AM _ Superstorm93 (22) _______________ 13 _____ 7 _____ 2 _______ Consensus _____________________ 13.8 ___ 6.8 ___ 2.8 AM _ George BM (41) ___________________ 13 _____ 6 _____ 3 AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _____________ 13 _____ 6 _____ 2 AM _ North hills wx (24) _________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Newman (30) _____________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Alfoman (25) ______________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 1 AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ________________ 13 _____ 5 _____ 1 NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _____________________12 _____11 _____ 1 AM _ rclab (43) _________________________ 12 _____ 8 _____ 3 AM _ Rhino 16 (2) _______________________ 12 _____ 7 _____ 3 AM _ crownweather (11) ________________ 12 _____ 6 _____ 2 AM _ Cat Lady (7) ______________________ 12 _____ 5 _____ 3 AM _ RJay (17) __________________________12 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ cheese007 (35) ___________________12 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Eyewall (27) ______________________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2 AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) __________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ mob1 (8) __________________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Malacka 11 (29) ___________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ Matthew70 (32) __________________ 11 _____ 4 _____ 2 AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan (16) ___10.5 ___4.5 ____ 2 NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) __________10 _____ 4 _____ 2 AM _ cnimbus (6) _______________________ 10 _____ 7 _____ 2 AM _ GaWx (21) _________________________ 10 _____ 5 _____ 2 AM _ The Iceman (39) __________________ 10 _____ 4 _____ 1 AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ___________________ 7 _____ 3 _____ 2 ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

Well I truly dislike imposing any late penalties especially on hard working forum-asset posters, and I tried to contact RJay to avoid any significant bites but found message box full (I think) ... anyway, contact me if the penalty seems out of line (in the past few months I have basically been going with 1% per half day late which is more lenient than the older regime). In any case, here are tables of entries for both contests. I could also mention there's a tropical seasonal contest in the tropical forum, some of you are already entered in that, and deadline for it is June 5th 06z. Welcome Terpeast, I believe it's a first time entry in our contest. I wish StormchaserChuck would enter all months as his average score is pretty good. Rhino16 joined up in March and has been entering each month. I also continue to hope we will see a resurgence of the contest participation to levels of yesteryear. But it is what it is, and I am happy to continue, I suspect some of you intimidate the potential entrants with your prowess (and some of us do not) ... (1) Table of forecasts for June 2023 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith _________________ +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 __+3.0 _+1.5 _+0.7___+1.7 _+0.3 _+2.2 wxdude64 ___________________ +1.6 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___+1.9 _-0.7 _+0.2 __ -2.1 _ -1.3 _+1.8 Tom __________________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+0.4 _+1.1___+0.4 _+1.1 _+1.1 so_whats_happening ________ +1.1 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+1.8 _+0.5 _-0.6 __ -0.2 _-0.6 _+1.5 RJay _______ (-2%) ___________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.9 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 _+2.0 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxallannj _____________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __+0.2 _-1.2 _-2.0 __ -1.2 _-0.5 _+2.2 ___ Consensus _______________ +1.0 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+0.5_+0.4 _+0.8 __ 0.0 _-0.4_ +1.5 Rhino 16 _____________________ +0.9 _+0.3 _+0.4 __+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.4 __-0.3 _-0.4 _+0.7 BKViking _____________________+0.7 _+0.9 _+0.5 __+0.2 _-0.2 _+1.5 __+0.8 _+1.6 _+1.4 hudsonvalley21 ______________+0.7 _+0.4 _+0.6 __+1.3 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.4 _+1.9 _+1.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 _____________ -0.1 _ +0.5 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _-0.5 _-0.2 __-3.2 _-1.5 _+2.0 Terpeast _____________________-0.3 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ +1.0 _-0.6 _-1.6 __ +0.5 _-0.8 _+2.0 RodneyS _____________________-0.3 _+0.1 _-0.5 ___-0.5 __ 0.0 _+0.8 __-0.4 _-2.1 _+0.7 ___ persistence (May 2023) __ -2.2 _ -0.5 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.7 ____ +2.0 _ +1.3 _ +3.4 _____________________ warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded ... Normal is colder for NYC, SEA. Consensus is median (ranked 7) of 13 forecasts. (2) Table of forecasts for Summer 2023 Maximum FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Rhino 16 _____________________105 __ 95 __ 98 ____101 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 96 Scotty Lightning _____________103 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 104 _ 109 ___ 94 _ 119 __ 90 Roger Smith _________________ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___103 _ 119 __ 98 so_whats_happening ________ 101 __ 101 __ 98 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 100 __ 101 _ 122 __ 97 RJay _________________________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 105 ___100 _ 119 __ 97 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 101 __ 98 __ 95 ____100 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 93 DonSutherland1 ______________101 __ 96 __ 96 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 103 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 ___ Consensus _______________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 98 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 95 wxdude64 ___________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 ___102 _ 100 _ 105 ___104 _ 119 __ 96 BKViking _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 97 ___99 __ 100 _ 120 __ 95 Tom ___________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 ___101 __ 99 __ 103 ___97 _ 119 __ 97 wxallannj ______________________98 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 94 __ 98 _ 102 __ 101 _ 116 __ 97 RodneyS ______________________98 __ 96 __ 95 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 92 Terpeast ______________________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 95 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 99 ___________________ For this contest, consensus is mean of 13 forecasts.

A few days late but no doubt the hottest days of 2023 are some distance away ... so as always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports: DCA IAD BWI RIC and I will start the ball rolling with 102, 102, 103 and 103. Contest deadline 06z June 17 (which is Friday night). Tie-breaker details in a post in thread (lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties)

I recall a lot of forest fires in ON and QC in spring 1977. But it is unusual to have this many at any time of year, summer tends to be fairly moist across the boreal forest regions north of the lower lakes. Persistent high pressure over central to northern QC or north of Ontario quite unlikely past mid-June as the storm track almost always energizes across inland northern Canada in summer. So I would not expect this regime to persist, it may morph into a persistent high closer to New England and New York state if it doesn't collapse entirely. It has been anomalously warm in north-central Canada since April so I am thinking there won't be very frequent below normal outbreaks into the Midwest at any point, and if the Midwest runs very warm, hard to avoid at least a moderate positive anomaly in the inland northeast U.S. A few months in the past have seen much higher anomalies as far east as Toronto compared to NYC. Both July 1916 and 1921 were much warmer relative to normal in Toronto than in NYC. There's one place a ridge can set up, around MI-IN-KY-TN that spills heat into the lower lakes and OV but if persistent low pressure can form near 37N 72W then NYC can be alternating between subdued heat and cool, cloudy and sometimes wet intervals. (this was not the case in 2009 when a larger northeast flow extended well inland).

1949 had a very dry spring and early summer, a hot June and more heat in July and August, cooled off somewhat in September, and returned to significant warmth in October. Late November was briefly cold but the winter of 1949-50 was among the mildest on record.

Wow, this contest may require an assistant director at this rate. There will also be about a dozen along from two other forums in UK and Ireland. I will rank them in but issue two ranking lists at end of play so you can see how you did against American Weather folk and the somewhat larger global field. Expert forecasts will be scored but ranked outside your ranks. As I've been saying, you can edit away to end of Sunday June 4 without posting about it, as I have not collected the forecasts yet. FAQ 1. January storm ... does it count? Yes, the contest asks you to predict the count at end of year. 2. December storms ... do they count? Yes, same as above. 3. Tropical depressions not reaching TS status, not named, not in the count -- these do not count unless re-analyzed before Dec 31st. 4. Storms that have two active life cycles. They count as one as per NOAA protocols. 5. Prizes? Yes, promotion to PGA tour. You must also excel at golf and qualify some other way. So it's not a real prize. 6. Prestige? I think so, if you can beat 50 people and the recognized experts, that says something. 7. Same forecast as somebody else ... up to you to check for this, earliest post ranks higher. 8. Medicanes, South Atlantic canes ... no, and no. SCORING SYSTEM will be same as past two years, explained with table of forecasts in a few days. Basically, you lose fewer points for errors in storm count than in hurricane and major counts (this after that season with the 30 count that gave almost everyone a negative score). Decimal forecasts are allowed and are scored from their precise values.

Years with significant heat in early June sometimes see a return to that heat on several more occasions (e.g., 1919, 1934) but another outcome is a rather cool mid-summer and more heat in September (1895, 1925). I suspect this will turn into a relatively hot summer with a few cool and wet intervals, in this climate, harder to avoid east coast ridge building over the anomalously warm NAtl. It is also quite warm out here and pushing up a bit higher each day to mid-week. My idea for the summer pattern in general is that it may be prone to severe heat waves in central states and the western interior, and that the east will alternate between near average and hot spells with a bit of a westerly rather than south-westerly flow bias which can mean a rather dry regime, but no doubt with a few interruptions.

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Spring segment Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3. FORECASTER _________ Winter TOTAL __ Points ____ MAR __ APR __ MAY ___ TOTAL __ Spring Points ___ TOTAL points RJay _________________________1879 _____ 10 _________ 481 ___ 640 ___ 640 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 15 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1675 _____ 4 ___________476 ___ 648 ___ 700 ____ 1824 ____ 10 ________ 14 ___ Consensus _______________1682 _____ 4.3 ________ 447 ___ 605 ___ 720 ____ 1772 ____6.9 ________ 11.2 DonSutherland1 _____________ 1722 _____ 6 __________ 513 ___ 592 ___ 656 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 11 wxallannj ____________________ 1699 _____ 5 __________ 477 ___ 588 ___ 700 ____ 1765 ____ 6 _________ 11 RodneyS ____________________ 1760 ______7 __________ 463 ___ 528 ___ 552 ____ 1543 ____ 1 __________8 wxdude64 __________________1518 ______ 1 ____________465 ___ 652 ___ 656 ____ 1773 ____ 7 __________8 Roger Smith ________________ 1626 _____ 3 ___________ 271 ___ 552 ___ 586 ____ 1409 ____ 1 __________ 4 Scotty Lightning ___________ 1147 ______ 1 ____________502 ___ 562 ___ 612 ____ 1676 ____ 3 __________ 4 so_whats_happening _______ 1620 _____ 2 ___________ -- --___ -- --___ -- --____ -- -- ____ 0 __________ 2 BKViking ___________________ 1576 ______ 1 ___________ 355 ___ 537 ___ 688 ____ 1580 ____ 1 __________ 2 Tom ________________________ 1545 ______ 1 ___________ -- --___ 591 ___ 690 ____ 1281 ____ 1 __________ 2 Rhino 16 ____________________ -- -- _____ 0 ____________ 389 ___ 630 ___ 656 ____ 1675 ____ 2 _________ 2 ___ Normal _________________ 1076 _____ 1 _____________ 422 ___ 538 ___ 610 ____ 1570 ____ 1 __________ 2 StormchaserChuck _________ 674 (1/3) _ 0 ____________-- --___ 580 ___ 632 ____ 1212 ____ 1 __________ 1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _+0.7 ___+1.7 _ +0.3 _ +2.2 101 __ 102 __ 100 ____ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 103 _ 119 _ 98

If May ends with 1.28" rain it will be 13th driest of 155 (1869-2023) at NYC, the top 20 dry Mays are: Rank ___ Year ____ Prec _01 ____ 1887 ____ 0.34 _02 ____ 1903 ____ 0.50 _03 ____ 1964 ____ 0.57 _04 ____ 1880 ____ 0.62 _05 ____ 1905 ____ 0.72 _06 ____ 1939 ____ 0.89 _07 ____ 1877 ____ 0.95 _08 ____ 1935 ____ 1.05 _09 ____ 1899 ____ 1.09 _10 ____ 1944 ____ 1.18 _11 ____ 1911 _____ 1.25 _12 ____ 1962 ____ 1.26 _13? ___ 2023 ____ 1.28 _t14 _ 1875, 1959 _ 1.33 _16 ____ 1902 ____ 1.35 _17 ____ 1987 ____ 1.45 _18 ____ 1909 ____ 1.47 _19 ____ 2005 ____ 1.48 _20 ____ 1910 ____ 1.49 (21) ____ 1993 ____ 1.56 Median value (rank 78) is 3.56"