Roger Smith

+4.0 __ +3.5 __ +3.0 ___ +3.0 __ +4.5 __ +2.5 ____ +3.0 __ +2.0 __ +1.5

Contest final scoring -- Nov 16th edit has been verified as final count As of Oct 29th 00z, the October count has increased to 3 2 1, as Oscar reached hurricane status. The previous write-up in this space was getting unreadable with so many edits, so basically, what we have here now is the scoring for what we know has happened (15 8 2) with the assumption that current 0 0 0 for Nov - Dec will hold (later edit -- it did hold and this is therefore declared to be the final contest results). ... The contest rules give all changes of status to the month when any named storm begins its life cycle. This so far affected only one storm, Leslie, which became a tropical storm in September and a hurricane in October. An alternate scoring table will be created at the end of the contest to show scores based on the other system we could use, assigning status to months when achieved. This would change September to 7 3 1 and October now to 3 3 1. Notes on alternate system scoring can be found after this scoring table. But this is the official contest scoring, the second table is just for your information. Table is shown in rank order, the non-forecaster scores (including NHC) have ranks that do not affect ranks of the lower contest entrants, and those additional ranks are shown with an asterisk. They can be tied with another rank but that tie is not shown for the forecaster involved (see 1st place for example). FORECASTER _____________ SEASONAL __ May __ June ___ July _ August __ Sept ___ Oct _ Nov-Dec __ TOTAL (rank) ___ Points available ___________ 50 _______ -- ____ 4 _____ 6 ____ 12 _____ 16 ___ 10 ____ 2 ______ 100 Predictions in black, scores in red __ Scores based on _________ 15 8 2 50 ________ 000 4 _ 220 6 __ 200 12 _741 16_ 321 10_ 000 2 ____ 100 ___ Contest Normal __________16 8 3 48___100 __1003.5 _ 1004.0 _ 421 5 _ 64115 _ 32110 _ 0002.0 ___ 87.5 ( 1*) ___ NHC mid-range _________13 7 2.5 45.6_100 __0004.0 _ 1004.0 _ 321 7 _ 53112 _320.59.6_0002.0 ___84.2 ( 1*) a few Universes below normal*_13 7 3 45___100 __0004.0 _ 1004.0 _ 321 7 _ 53112 _ 32110 _ 0002.0 ___ 84.0 ( 1 ) UIWWildthing _______________17 9 3 45___100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 311 9 _ 65114 _ 210 7 _ 0002.0 ___ 83.5 ( 2 ) jburns _____________________15 8 4 47___100 __2002.5 _ 1105.0 _ 321 7 _ 54212 _ 211 8 _ 100 1.5 ___ 83.0 ( 3 ) snowlover2 _________________16 5 2 43___100 __1003.5 _ 3105.0 _ 311 9 _ 62112 _ 210 7 _ 0002.0 ___ 81.5 ( 4 ) ___ Contest mean __ see below ______46.3 _________ 2.8 ___ 5.3 ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1 ___ 8.6 ___ 1.7 ____ 81.0 ( 5*) BlunderStorm _______________17 9 4 43___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 421 5 _ 54212 _ 32110 _ 100 1.5 ___80.5 ( 5 ) NCforecaster89 _____________ 15 7 3 48___100 __1103.0 _ 210 5.5_ 321 7 _ 421 7 _ 211 8 _ 100 1.5____ 80.0 ( 6 ) ___ Consensus ____________ 17 8 3 46___100 __2102.0 _ 2105.5 _ 421 5 _ 53211 _ 211 8 _ 100 1.5___ 79.0 ( 7*) crownweather ______________ 14 7 3 47___100 __1003.5 _ 3215.0 _ 321 7 _ 421 7 _ 210 7 _ 0002.0 ___ 78.5 ( 7 ) NorthArlington101 ___________17 8 4 44___100 __2102.0 _ 3105.0 _ 421 5 _ 53211 _ 211 8 _ 0002.0 ___ 77.0 ( t-8 ) Yoda ______________________13 6 2 44___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 321 7 _ 521 10_ 110 5 _ 0002.0 ___ 77.0 ( t-8 ) jaxjagman __________________17 9 4 43___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 332 2 _ 53211 _ 320 9 _ 0002.0 ___ 74.5 (10) Stebo _____________________ 18 8 4 41___100 __3100.5 _ 3105.0 _ 321 7 _ 53211 _ 211 8 _ 1001.5 ___ 74.0 (t-11) hlcater ____________________ 17 7 2 46___100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 21011 _ 320 2 _ 521 7 _ 1001.5 ___ 74.0 (t-11) ncskywarn _________________15 11 4 41__ 100 __2102.0 _ 2206.0 _ 321 7 _ 432 8 _ 221 9 _ 1101.0 ___ 74.0 (t-11) Rtd208 ____________________ 18 8 5 38___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 422 3 _ 64214 _ 211 8 _ 0002.0 ___ 72.5 (14) cobalt _____________________14 6 2 46___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 421 5 _ 321 3 _ 210 7 _ 1001.5 ___ 71.5 (15) RJay ______________________19 9 3 38___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 431 2 _ 53211 _ 320 9 _ 1001.5 ____69.0 (16) jbamafanwx ________________18 10 5 35__ 100 __2102.0 _ 3215.0 _ 421 5 _ 54212 _ 211 8 _ 1001.5 ___ 68.5 (17) mryanwilkes _______________ 17 9 4 43___ 100 __3200.0 _ 3114.5 _ 431 2 _ 53211 _ 100 3 _ 0002.0 ___ 65.5 (18) Jackstraw __________________20 10 4 29__100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 421 5 _ 84214 _ 220 8 _ 0002.0 ___ 64.5 (t-19) OSUmetstud _______________ 13 5 1 40___ 100 __1003.5 _ 1004.0 _ 520 3 _ 421 7 _ 110 5 _ 0002.0 ___ 64.5 (t-19) Orangeburgwx ______________19 9 4 36___100 __1103.0 _ 2004.5 _ 752 0 _ 421 7 _ 311 9 _ 1001.5 ___ 61.0 (21) pcbjr _____________________ 11 5 1 33___ 100 __0004.0 _ 2105.5 _ 420 6 _ 321 3 _ 100 3 _ 0002.0 ___ 56.5 (22) SRRTA22 __________________22 9 4 18___ 100 __2102.0 _ 3205.5 _ 420 6 _ 431 9 _ 532 5 _ 321 0 ____ 45.5 (23) Roger Smith _______________ 21 15 7 00__ 100 __2102.0 _ 1105.0 _ 432 0 _ 75312 _ 542 3 _ 1101.0 ___ 23.0 (24) ________________________________________________________________________________ Contest means _____________16.5_8.2_3.4__100__1.6_0.5_0__2.4_1.0_0.2 _________________________________________________________________3.7_2.2_1.0__4.8_3.0_1.5 __________________________________________________________________________________2.3_1.4_0.6__0.5_0.2_0.0 ________scores ________________ 47.8 ___________2.8 ___ 5.3 ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1 ___ 8.6 ___ 1.7 ______ 82.5 (t-3*) (Consensus is the contest mean rounded off to nearest whole number -- these rounded off monthly numbers add up to 17 8 4) _______________________________________________________________________________ The alternate scoring (assigning status changes to months, applies to Leslie becoming a hurricane Oct 2) is now complete in terms of differentials as only Oct and Nov monthly scores are changed due to Leslie's history of status changes. The alternate scoring is based on Sep 7 3 1 and Oct 3 3 1. Changes in alternate scoring will only happen if the main scoring table changes due to activity in Nov-Dec. The differentials will remain as they are here, applied to that new total scoring. I have retained the old list from the 1 0 0 scoring assumption, in case it comes back into play. That's below this new alternate scoring list, in smaller type. Rank (main contest scoring) __ details of alternate scoring with rank in that (1) ___ NHC mid-range stays at 84.2 (1st in this system) 1. ___ AfewUniv b n stays level, total 84.0 (1st for contest entrants in this system) 2. ___ UIWWildthing loses four, total 79.5 (5th in this alternate system) 3. ___ jburns loses three, total 80.0 (tied 3rd) 4. ___ snowlover2 stays level, total 82.0 (2nd in this alternate system) 5. ___ Blunder Storm loses two, total 78.5 (tied 6th) 6. ___ NCForecaster89 stays level, total 80.0 (tied 3rd in this system) 7. ___ Crownweather stays level, total 78.5 (tied 6th) t8. ___ NorthArlington101 loses one, total 76.0 (9th) t8. ___ Yoda stays level, total 77.0 (8th) 10. ___ jaxjagman stays level, total 74.5 (11th) t11. __ Stebo loses one, total 73.0 (13th) t11. __ hlcater gains one, total 75.0 (10th) t11. __ ncskywarn stays level, total 74.0 (12th) 14. __ Rtd208 loses three, total 69.5 (15th) 15. __ Cobalt stays level, total 71.5 (14th) 16. __ RJay stays level, total 69.0 (16th) 17. __ jbamafanwx loses three, total 65.5 (17th) 18. __mryanwilkes loses two, total 63.5 (19th) t19. __OSUmetstud stays level, total 64.5 (18th) t19. __Jackstraw loses two, total 62.5 (20th) 21. __ Orangeburgwx stays level, total 61.0 (21st) 22. __ pcbjr loses one, total 55.5 (23rd) 23. __ SRRTA22 gains two, total 57.5 (22nd) 24. __ Roger Smith stays level at 23.0 (24th) A more complete accounting of changes will appear in the final alternate table. Note: the contest official scoring is in the table above this section, this is FYI only. (based on 1 0 0 in case we need to resume this version ...) 1. ___ UIWWildthing loses four, total 81.0 (tied 2nd in this alternate system) 2. ___ Blunder Storm loses two, total 81.0 (tied 2nd) 3. ___ jburns loses three, total 79.5 (tied 5ith) 4. ___ snowlover2 stays level, total 82.0 (first in this alternate system) 5. ___ AfewUniv b n stays level, total 80.5 (4th in this system) 6. ___ NCForecaster89 stays level, total 79.5 (tied 5th in this system) 7. ___ NorthArlington101 loses one, total 78.5 (7th) 8. ___ Stebo loses one, total 76.5 (9th) 9. ___ hlcater gains one, total 77.5 (8th) t10. __Crownweather stays level, total 76.0 (t-10th) t10. __jaxjagman stays level, total 76.0 (t-10th) 12. __ Rtd208 loses three, total 72.0 (15th) t13. __ Yoda stays level, total 73.5 (t-12th) t13. __ ncskywarn stays level, total 73.5 (t-12th) t13. __ RJay stays level, total 73.5 (t-12th)

Well, the provisional September scoring shows only one significant change in the contest, RJay (and also Tom) made a move through the chase pack to close in on the leaders. Ahead of them there was very little movement with scoring fairly equal among the leaders. Your host is clinging to a rather narrow lead in the eastern-central (original six) and the all nine scoring, while Scotty Lightning has the lead in the west. I can see this being a very close finish with not a huge spread in the scores from top to bottom (of the regular participants), at this point everyone in that group is ahead of Normal. So for October, the contest as usual will ask you to predict temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... late penalties will be the usual starting at 06z on Monday October 1st, hoping I won't have to apply any. (the Regional Rumble is becoming a bit of a runaway train situation for NYC, three other regions are trying to keep up but rather difficult when NYC has such a heavy-hitting roster.)

--- -- <<<<==== Updated Annual Scoring Jan - Sep 2018 ====>>>> -- ----   Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. ... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug or Sep). ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) ... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^ ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already). ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #) ... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now) ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. ... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn.  FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________610 _642 _622 ___ 1874 ____ 502 _542 _456 ____1500 ___ 3374 __2*3*2 13*1 .3.1 __ MAY wxallannj __________ 520 _556 _592 ____1668 ____ 450 _482 _561 ____1493 ___ 3161 ___ 001 001 .0.0 DonSutherland.1 ___ 532 _560 _532 ____1624 ____ 441 _567 _515 ____1523 ___ 3147 ___ 000 220 .0.1 ___Consensus ______ 503 _539 _558 ____1600 ____ 445 _513 _545 ____1503 ___ 3103 ___ 000 100 .0.0 jaxjagman _________ 510 _522 _520 ____1552 ____ 435 _521 _557 ____1513 ___ 3065 ___ 001 000 .0.1 BKViking ___________494 _570 _571 ____1635 ____ 402 _471 _550 ____1423 ___ 3058 ___ 001 000 .0.1 hudsonvalley21 _____ 483 _532 _514 ____1529 ____ 403 _497 _627 ___ 1527___ 3056 ___ 000 001 .0.1 RJay ______________490 _520 _557 ____1567 ____ 389 _530 _555 ____1474 ___ 3041 ___ 123 011 .3.2 _ APR, AUG Tom ______________ 491 _529 _561 ____1581 ____ 425 _536 _487 ____1448 ___ 3029 ___ 001 000 .0.0 _ JUN wxdude64 _________ 571 _522 _509 ____1602 ____ 439 _472 _507 ____1418 ___ 3020 ___34^0 002 .2.0 RodneyS ___________480 _542 _520 ____1542 ____ 473 _455 _528 ____1456 ___ 2998 ___ 210 201 .0.4 _ MAR, JUL, SEP Stebo _____________ 447 _494 _504 ____1445 ____ 449 _506 _550 ____1505 ___ 2950 ___ 010 112 .0.1 Scotty Lightning (SD) _509 _527 _504 ___ 1540 ____ 417 _476 _509 ____1402 ___ 2942 ___2^11 103 .2^.1 _ JAN^ dmillz25 ___________ 447 _469 _475 ____1391 ____ 401 _494 _552 ____1447 ___ 2838 ___ 000 011 .0.0 ___Normal _________450 _479 _447 ____1376 ____ 386 _453 _409 ____1248 ___ 2624 ___ 001 111 .0.0 __ JAN^ so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB mappy (5/9) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx _(5/9)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (2)_114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0 Mercurial (2/9) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/9)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/9) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/9) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September all shown (2/9) missed March to September, Orangeburgwx (5/9) missed January, July, August, September  ... mappy (5/9) missed June to September, and H2OTown_wx (3/9) missed April to September.   Part Two: Western and All Nine contests  ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals  for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring  FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 473 _ 644 _ 588 ____ 1705 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 4647 (= 5 t) BKViking _______________404 _ 616 _ 601 ____ 1621 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 4679 (= 4) __ JUN DonSutherland.1 ________ 460 _ 602 _ 519 _____1581 __________2^1 1 __ Jan ______ 4728 (= 2) _ JAN^ RodneyS_______________ 514 _ 610 _ 475 ____ 1599 __________ 1 3#1 __May ______ 4597 (= 8) MAR,APR,JUL hudsonvalley21 _________ 457 _ 571 _ 563 _____1591 __________ 0 2 1 __ Jul _______4647 (= 5 t) __ Consensus __________ 430 _ 606 _ 524 _____1560 __________ 0 1 0 _____________4663 (= 5) RJay __________________457 _ 538 _ 562 _____1557 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep _______4598 (= 7) __ SEP wxallannj ______________ 460 _ 626 _ 453 _____1539 __________1 1 0 __ Mar _______4700 (= 3) Roger Smith ____________411 _ 566 _ 548 _____1525 __________ 2 0 2 __ Jan _______4899 (= 1) __ MAY Tom __________________ 470 _ 564 _ 488 _____1522 __________ 1 0 0 _____________4551 (= 9) dmillz25 _______________ 375 _ 578 _ 533 _____1486 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 4324 (=12) __Normal ______________422 _ 512 _ 498 _____1432 __________ 2 1 1 _____________ 4056 (=13) __ FEB wxdude64 _____________ 436 _ 524 _ 433 _____1393 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 4413 (=11) jaxjagman _____________ 348 _ 528 _ 514 _____1390 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 4455 (=10) so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB Stebo _________________ 274 _ 501 _ 310 _____1085 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 4035 (=13) Orangeburgwx (5/9)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15) mappy (5/9) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/9) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20) afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1135 (=17) Mercurial __ (2/9) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/9) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/9) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)  __________________________________________________________________________________________________  Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - September _) REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL __ behind leader New York City _____ 1941 ____ 1778 ____ 1923 _____ 5642 ____ 0 Mid-Atlantic _______ 1942 ____ 1843 ____ 1721 _____ 5506 ____ 136 Central + Western __2028 ____ 1639 ____ 1571 _____ 5238 ____ 404 Philadelphia _______ 1889 ____ 1584 ____ 1759 _____ 5232 ____ 410 __ Consensus _____ 1600 ____ 1503 ____ 1560 _____ 4663 ____ 979 Tenn Valley _______ 1600 ____ 1513 ____ 1400 _____ 4513 ___ 1129 __ Normal ________ 1376 _____1248 ____ 1432 _____ 4056 ___ 1586 Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1445 ____ 1505 _____1085 _____ 4035 ___ 1607

Final scoring for September 2018 Scores are based on confirmed anomalies for end of month in previous post. Late penalty reductions of 1 or 2 per cent are in the score line, * for each point ... ... a separate reduced score line is shown for wxdude64 who drops 6%. High scores in red are also extreme forecast winners (at present). High score in orange is an extreme forecast winner from second most extreme (BOS) or tie on points due to late penalty reduction for extreme forecast (DCA). Score in orange with ^ symbol is extreme forecast "loss" (BOS). High scores in blue would be for coldest forecasts but this does not apply, scores in blue instead show results for coldest forecasts ... other high scores are in bold type. Raw scores for ATL and DEN are too low by rules, boosted to 60-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-16-12-08-04 (no raw scores were above the progression). There was a four-way tie for 35 for ATL, also consensus which does not alter other scores, so the next score after 35 was 16 (two tied). FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA __ west ___ TOTAL RJay ___________ NYC ____ 82 _ 74 _ 98 ___254 ___ 74 _ 60 _ 78 ___ 212 __ 466 ___ 60 _ 62_100__ 222____ 688 RodneyS ________ M A ____ 64 _ 94 _ 80 ___ 238 ___ 98 _ 35 _ 98 ___231 __469 ___ 50 _ 52 _ 74 __ 176 ____ 645 Tom ___________ PHL _____74 _ 84 _ 90___ 248 ___ 72 _ 55 _ 80 ___ 207 __ 455 ___ 45 _ 48 _ 92 __ 185 ____ 640 Roger Smith ____ C + W ___ 74 _ 86 _ 94 ___254___ 64 _ 16 _ 96 ___ 176 __ 430 ___ 55 _ 48 _100__ 203 ____ 633 wxallannj _______ NYC ____ 64 _ 72 _ 96 ___ 232 ___ 54 _ 50 _ 88 ___ 192 __ 424 ___ 40 _ 62 _ 70 __ 172 ____ 596 __ Consensus ____________ 62 _ 94 _ 80 ___ 236 ___ 54 _ 35 _ 94 ___ 183 __ 419 ___ 30 _ 52 _ 92 __ 174 ____ 593 dmillz25 __ (-2%) _NYC ___ 61*_ 94** 82**__ 237 ___ 43*_34*_86**__ 163 __ 400 ___ 39*_51*_98**_188____ 588 DonSutherland.1 _ NYC ____ 60 _ 96 _ 58 ___ 214 ___ 58 _ 45 _ 90 ___ 193 __ 407 ___ 12 _ 62 _ 76 __ 150 ____ 557 BKViking __ (-1%) _NYC ___ 59*_ 93*_ 79*__ 231 ___ 49*_ 04 _ 93*__ 146 __ 377 ___ 30 _ 48 _ 99*__ 177____ 554 jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ 52 _ 94 _ 56 ___ 202 ___ 40 _ 35 _ 92 ___ 167 __ 369 ___ 16 _ 60 _ 80 __ 156 ____ 525 hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ____ 46 _ 88 _ 74 ___ 208 ___ 32 _ 16 _ 86 ___ 134 __ 342 ___ 25 _ 68 _ 88 __ 181 ____ 523 Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ 58 _ 98 _ 68 ___ 224 ___ 44 _ 40 _ 98___ 182 __ 406 ___ 08 _ 22 _ 60 __ 090 ____ 496 Scotty Lightning __ PHL ____ 42 _ 66 _ 38 ___ 146 ___ 24 _ 35 _ 98___ 157 __ 303 ___ 25 _ 52 _ 90 __ 167 ____ 470 wxdude64 _______ M A ____96 _ 64 _ 86 ___ 246 ___ 76 _ 08 _ 74 ___ 158 __ 404 ___ 04 _ 44 _ 28 __ 076 _ 480 _________ (-6%) _________90 _ 60 _ 81 ___ 231 ___ 71 _ 08 _ 70 ___ 149 __ 380 ___ 04 _ 41 _ 26 __ 071 ____ 451 ___ Normal ___________12 _ 46 _18 __ 076 __ 14 _ 00 _82 __ 096 __ 172 __ 10 _ 32 _ 80 __122 ___ 294 ______________________________________________________________ Final scoring -- Regional Rumble for September 2018 Region ____________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ Totals New York City _______254 _____ 212 _____ 222 ______ 688 Mid Atlantic ________ 238 _____ 231 _____ 176 ______ 645 Philadelphia ________ 248 _____ 207 _____ 185 ______ 640 Central + Western ___ 254 _____ 176 _____ 203 ______ 633 __ Consensus _______ 236 _____ 183 _____ 174 ______ 593 TN Valley __________ 202 _____ 167 _____ 156 ______ 525 Great Lakes / OH val _ 224 _____ 182 _____ 090 ______ 496 ___ Normal _________076 _____ 096 _____ 122 ______ 294 __________________________________________________________________ Annual scoring update in next post.

Updated anomaly tracker continued ... actuals compare with predictions made seven days before (colors same). __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _______ (7d) ______ +9.0 _+7.1 _+9.1 ___ +7.1 _+4.6 _--0.8 ___ --0.9 _+0.1 _+2.8 ______ (14d) ______ +4.5 _+2.2 _+4.6 ___ +4.5 _+5.5 _--1.2 ___ +4.3 _+2.2 _+1.5 ______ (21d) ______ +5.1 _+3.3 _+4.8 ___ +6.5 _+6.7 _+0.8 ___ +6.2 _+2.6 _+0.5 ______ (24d) ______ +4.2 _+2.8 _+3.9 ___ +5.7 _+6.9 _+0.8 ___ +6.5 _+2.9 _+0.4 ______ (28d) ______ +4.5 _+2.9 _+4.2e___+5.0 _+7.3 _+0.9 ___ +4.8e_+3.4 _+0.9 _____ (p14d)_NWS __+5.5 _+4.5 _+5.5 ___ +4.5 _+3.8 _--0.5 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+0.4 _____ (p21d)_NWS __+4.0 _+3.0 _+4.5 ___ +6.0 _+6.0 __0.0 ___ +6.2 _+2.5 _+0.5 _____ (p28d)_NWS __+3.8 _+2.5 _+3.6 ___ +5.0 _+6.0 _+1.7 ___ +5.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _8th_ (p24d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0 15th_ (p30d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+2.5 _+3.5 ___ +4.5 _+4.0 _+0.5 ___ +4.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 22nd_ (p30d)_GFS*__ +4.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +5.0 _+6.0 _+2.0 ___ +5.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 25th_ (p30d)_NWS^__+4.0 _+3.0 _+3.5 ___ +5.0 _+6.4 _+1.0 ___ +5.5 _+2.5 _+1.0 29th_ (p30d)_NWS^__+4.0 _+2.5 _+3.7 ___ +4.7 _+7.2 _+1.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.0 _+1.0 Final anomalies ______+4.4_+2.7_+4.1 ___+4.3_+7.4_+0.9 ___+4.7_+3.4_+1.0 * this entry uses seven days of NWS forecasts (see p28d above) and two days of GFS (29-30). ^ later entries will use only NWS forecasts after 24d. note: NWS forecasts did very well to 21st, the average error only 0.47 deg. (west almost perfect) 25th _ The anomalies through 24 days are posted, the comparison (orange) is to the 16-day forecast made on the 8th. That forecast, with nine days from GFS 8-16 day, with average error of 1.57 deg. That would equate to a contest score of 648 adjusted to 690 with the minimum scoring applied to ATL and DEN where these forecasts were most in error but still slightly warmer than our top forecasts. Without those two stations the average error was 0.97 deg. Provisionals have been changed on 25th for BOS (down 0.5) and IAH (down 1.0), also ATL/DEN are now even higher but scoring there is already settled by the minimum progression system (max score 60 etc). 29th _ The past week had a good forecast performance from NWS numbers (0.57 average error). Some of the provisionals have been tweaked, changes to ATL and DEN will not affect scoring already settled by the max-score-60 method. Oct 1st _ Final anomalies have been posted. Confirmed values in bold type. Scoring will be adjusted until finalized (estimated by 18z Monday).

With Joyce the count goes to 5/3/1 but now has little chance of increasing in the major category as Helene failed to reach that level and Isaac never got much past minimal cat-1. The seasonal count is now 10/5/1. See previous post for other comments about how the contest wraps up into October.

Seasonal Max 2018 contest -- updated Sep 11th ... no new max in August or early September, and table has now migrated to the September thread ... ... any changes will also be edited in here, ATL added one degree to 95 on Sept 14th and this changes the leaderboard as shown below. FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Max to date ____________ 98 __ 96 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 94 __101 ___105 _ 116 __ 94 Scotty Lightning ____________103 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _____ 98 _ 114 __ 96 RJay _____________________ 102 _ 100 __ 99 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 ____102 _ 117 __ 95 Tom _____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 119 __ 94 mappy ___________________ 102 __ 99 __ 96 _____100 __ 97 _ 102 _____ 96 _ 118 __ 90 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 99 __ 97 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 115 __ 90 wxdude64 _________________100 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 95 dmillz25 __________________ 100 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _____100 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ________100 __ 99 _ 101 _____ 98 __ 97 _ 103 _____101 _ 119 __ 98 ___ Consensus (mean) ______ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 93 Roger Smith _______________100 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 98 _ 102 _ 104 _____107 _ 122 __ 93 Stebo ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 101 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 92 DonSutherland.1 ____________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 _____ 95 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 116 __ 88 BKViking ___________________99 __ 97 __ 95 _____ 99 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 116 __ 91 wxallannj __________________ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 98 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91 jaxjagman _________________ 98 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 97 _ 121 __ 93 RodneyS ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 94 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 89 Orangeburgwx ______________ 97 __ 93 __ 91 _____99 _ 102 _ 101 _____ 87 _ 105 __ 90 (table of departures -- red numbers can get higher, black numbers can get lower) FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH_DEN_PHX_SEA __ Total DonSutherland.1 ____________1 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 0 __ 6 _____ 18 wxallannj _________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 7 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 19 RodneyS __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 5 _____ 19 ___ Consensus (mean) ______ 2 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 7 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 21 wxdude64 _________________2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 22 BKViking __________________1 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 3 __ 1 _____10 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 24 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 2 __ 3 _____ 6 __ 1 __ 4 _____ 24 so_whats_happening ________2 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 4 __ 3 __ 4 _____ 24 Stebo ____________________ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 8 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 25 jaxjagman ________________ 0 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 0 __ 4 __ 3 _____ 8 __ 5 __ 1 _____ 25 Roger Smith _______________ 2 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 1 __ 7 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 26 RJay _____________________ 4 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 28 dmillz25 __________________ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 5 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 28 mappy ___________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 9 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 30 Tom _____________________ 4 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 31 Scotty Lightning ____________5 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 6 _____ 7 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 34 Orangeburgwx _____________1 __ 3 __ 7 _____ 2 __ 7 __ 0 ____ 18__11 __ 4 _____ 53 _____________________________________________________________ lowest total departures in each group: eastern three -- 4 __ DonS, wxallannj, jaxjagman, RodneyS central three -- 3 __ DonSutherland.1 western three -- 5 __ RJay most perfect forecasts (to date) __ 2 __ DonS, wxallannj, RodneyS, jaxjagman, Tom kept all departures within 4 deg __ so_whats_happening (5 __ RodneyS)

Despite the generally good performance of models recently in tracking hurricanes 72-96 hours out, is it not true that most of the errors have been actual tracks further right than forecast? I can think of several recent examples, and cannot recall a storm that went left of its predicted track around eastern U.S. landfall. So that might argue for some caution in this consensus about a southward drift and high impacts around Wilmington into SC. The typhoon that recently hit Japan was also a little to the right of its model track despite ominous signs at 48h that it might actually come in west (left). This one may prove to be an exception however.

Don't feel bad about that post, the models had Florence turning north long before where the storm is now. And the original set of projections was a maximum intensity of strong tropical storm. Florence was kind enough to wait for the calendar to flip over before getting a name, so far I don't have any reason to issue two scoring tables. September is only one third over and already the count is 4/3/1 with a chance to go 4/3/2 or (outside chance) 4/3/3 if either Helene or Isaac make major hurricane status. The season is now up to 9/5/1 and could go to 9/5/2 or 9/5/3 with the existing storms. It seems like a wide-open contest at this point as we could go back into slumber mode, or keep up this new pace, or something in between. My habit is to start posting full scoring on a provisional basis once September is known, based on our consensus for Oct and Nov-Dec and then adjusting the scoring table whenever reality changes that consensus. So by mid-October you should have a pretty good idea how you stand in this contest.

First report on anomalies and projections ... __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _______ (7d) ______ +9.0 _+7.1 _+9.1 ___ +7.1 _+4.6 _--0.8 ___ --0.9 _+0.1 _+2.8 _____ (p14d)_NWS __+5.5 _+4.5 _+5.5 ___ +4.5 _+3.8 _--0.5 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+0.4 _____ (p24d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0 No new seasonal max so far this month, contest table is back in the July thread.

Looks like the eye is headed for either eastern Shikoku or the strait between that island and Honshu but in any case a second landfall will occur near Kobe just west of Osaka. Given the populations and port infrastructure of the two landfall areas, the second one will be more problematic. Hoping the first one weakens the storm enough that the second landfall will be less intense, perhaps a strong cat-1 as opposed to 2. Well it won't be long now looking at radar and satellite animations, the thing is accelerating NNE-ward. Roughly 15-20 million people live in the Osaka region then there's Nagoya one bay east, five million more there.

Forecasts for September, 2018 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxdude64 _ (-6%) _M A ___ +4.2 _+4.5 _+4.8 ___ +3.1 _+0.5 _--0.4 ___ --1.9 _+0.6 _--2.6 RJay ___________ NYC ____ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 Tom ___________ PHL _____+3.1 _+3.5 _+3.6 ___ +2.9 _+2.1 _+1.9 ___ +1.6 _+0.8 _+0.6 Roger Smith ____ C + W ___ +3.1 _+3.4 _+3.8 ___ +2.5 _+0.7 _+0.7 ___ +2.4 _+0.8 _+1.0 wxallannj _______ NYC ____ +2.6 _+4.1 _+3.9 ___ +2.0 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.5 _--0.5 RodneyS ________ M A ____ +2.6 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +4.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 ___ +1.8 _+1.0 _--0.3 dmillz25 __ (-2%) _NYC ___ +2.5 _+2.9 _+3.3 ___ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ Consensus ____________ +2.5 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.7 _+1.0 _+0.6 BKViking __ (-1%) _NYC ___ +2.4 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+1.2 ___ +0.7 _+0.8 _+1.0 DonSutherland.1 _ NYC ____ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+1.4 _+0.4 ___ +0.1 _+1.5 _+2.2 Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ +2.3 _+2.8 _+2.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___ --1.0 _--0.5 _--1.0 jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ +2.0 _+2.4 _+1.9 ___ +1.3 _+1.0 _+1.3 ___ +0.3 _+1.4 __0.0 hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ____ +1.7 _+2.1 _+2.8 ___ +0.9 _+0.7 _+1.6 ___ +0.5 _+1.8 _+1.6 Scotty Lightning __ PHL ____ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ Normal ____________ 0.0__0.0__0.0 ____0.0__0.0__0.0 ____ 0.0__0.0__0.0 ______________________________________________________________ color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, however, Normal is colder for first five.

Since it's 945 mb out in the open Pacific now, more likely to be around 950-955 at landfall perhaps? Seems to be only a strong cat-2 or weak cat-3 at present.

Will have some on-scene reports from my travelling friends who are going to ride this out in Kyoto, supposed to be within 50 miles of the eye around 06z to 08z (Tuesday afternoon JST). This is a radar I will be watching to check the exact track of Jebi. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/ Good satellite imagery here: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms150jp/ It is midnight in the region now so about 12-15 hours to landfalls and impacts (first Shikoku Island, eastern half, then near Kobe west of Osaka, storm accelerates and moves across Honshu in a few hours and then at TS intensity up the north coast as far as western Hokkaido). My friends are in a modern style hotel that is a smaller building than some nearby, and the whole area is flat but 45 metres above sea level so I'm thinking no real flooding or tsunami potential, they are also on the west side of the building so much of the storm will be producing east to south winds and they are relatively sheltered from those. If the track stays a bit west, should be close to remnants of eyewall during height of storm, hoping for some interesting accounts if not pictures. Told them to expect a bit of a cleanup day outside on Wednesday then back to normal.

Four seasons contest update SUMMER 2018 (June, July, August) ______________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals) FORECASTER ______ (original six) __ Points ___ (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points wxallannj _____________1470 ___ 10__________ 606 ______ 1________ 2076 _____10 ___ Consensus ________ 1400 ___ 5 __________ 614 ______ 2 ________2014 _____ 7 BKViking _____________ 1406 ____ 7 __________607 ______ 1 _______ 2013 _____ 7 Don Sutherland.1 ______ 1346 ____ 5 __________632 ______ 6 _______ 1978 _____ 6 Tom _________________1402 ____ 6 __________562 ______ 1 ________1964 _____ 5 (t) dmillz25 ______________1322 ____ 1 __________ 642 ______ 7 ________1964 _____ 5 (t) hudsonvalley21_________1300 ____ 1 __________658 ______10 ________1958 _____ 3 Scotty Lightning ________1344 ____ 4 __________604 ______ 1 ________ 1948 _____ 2 RodneyS _____________ 1312 ____ 1 __________ 627 _____ 4 t________ 1939 _____ 1 RJay _________________1294 ____ -- _________ 630 ______ 5 ________ 1924 _____ 1 jaxjagman ____________ 1342 ___ 3 __________ 545 ______ -- ________ 1887 _____ 1 Roger Smith ___________1334 ___ 2 __________ 552 ______ -- ________ 1886 _____ -- wxdude64 _____________1232 ___ -- __________ 627 ______ 4 t_______ 1859 _____ -- Stebo _________________1279 ___ -- _________ 465 ______ -- ________ 1744 _____ -- ___Normal ____________1130 ___ -- ___________530 ______ -- ________1660 _____ -- so_whats_happening (2/3)_862 ___ -- __________365 _____ -- _________ 1227 _____ -- Four Seasons total points to date ... listed in order of all nine total points ... FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points __ (western) __ Points __ (all nine) __ Points Don Sutherland.1 _____5, 4, 5 _____14 _____ 7, 4, 6 ____ 17 ____ 6, 4, 6 ___ 16 wxallannj ___________2, 1, 10 ___ 13 ______ 1, 5, 1 _____ 7 ____ 2, 3, 10 ___15 Scotty Lightning _____10, 0, 4 ____ 14 _____ 10, 6, 1 ___ 17 ____10, 0, 2 ____12 BKViking ___________ 3, 0, 7 _____10 _____ 1, 7, 1 _____ 9 ____ 3, 2, 7 ____ 12 ___ Consensus ____2, 1, 5 ____ 8 _____ 3, 4, 2 ____ 9 ___ 4, 1, 7 ___ 12 Roger Smith _________1,10, 2 ___ 13 ______ 5, 0, 0_____ 5 ____ 4, 7, 0 _____11 RodneyS ____________ 0, 7, 1 ____ 8 ______ 1,10, 4 ___ 15 ____ 0,10, 1 ____ 11 hudsonvalley21 ______ 7, 1, 1 _____ 9 _____ 3, 2,10 ____ 15 ____ 7, 1, 3 ____ 11 Tom _______________ 0, 5, 6 ____ 11 _____ 6, 1, 1 _____ 8 ____ 0, 5, 5 ____ 10 wxdude64 __________ 4, 6, 0 _____10 _____ 0, 0, 4 _____ 4 _____1, 6, 0 ____ 7 ___Normal __________ 7, 0, 0 _____ 7 _____ 6, 0, 0 _____ 6 _____7, 0, 0 ____ 7 so_whats_happening __ 6. 0, 0 _____ 6 _____ 2, 3, 0 _____ 5 ____ 5, 0, 0 ____ 5 dmillz25 _____________1, 0, 1 _____ 1 ______0, 1, 7 ____ 8 _____ 0, 0, 5 ____ 5 RJay ________________1, 1, 0 _____ 2 _____ 0, 2, 5 ____ 7 _____ 1, 1, 1 ____ 3 H2O_Town__WX ______0, 0, 0 _____ 0 _____ 5, 0, 0 ____ 5 _____ 1, 0, 0 ____ 1 jaxjagman ___________ 0, 0, 3 _____ 3 _____ 0, 0, 0 ____ 0 _____ 0, 0, 1 ____ 1 (only forecasters with any points are in table)

Extreme Forecast Update -- August 2018 Rjay (+3.0 all three) scores three for the eastern locations (DCA, NYC, both +2.9 and BOS +5.3). Roger Smith (+2.5, +3.5) scores two for ORD (+3.9) and SEA (+2.7). Don Sutherland (+0.1) scores one for DEN (-0.1) , Normal also gets a win. For PHX (+0.4), wxdude64 (+0.8) and Normal have wins, RodneyS (-0.9) has a loss. updated annual standings Roger Smith __________13###-0 (can fall to 10-0 see below) RodneyS _____________ 7-3 RJay ________________ 7-2 __ Normal ____________ 6-5 wxdude64 ____________ 5-0 AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0 Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see below) DonSutherland1 ________4-1 wxallannj _____________3-0 Scotty Lightning (SD)____3-1 so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 2-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 BKViking ______________1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0 Tom _________________ 0-1 * no decision (Mar for IAH) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- # wins excluding "a few Univ b n" will be withdrawn if a few Univ b n enters a third contest.

The clock has run out on TD6 as a potential named storm in August, the 03z advisory maintains it as a tropical depression, so its future exploits (if any) will belong to September. The scores listed above will now become confirmed for the contest to date.

+3.1 _ +3.4 _ +3.8 __ +2.5 _ +0.7 _ +0.7 __ +2.4 _ +0.8 _ +1.0

Just for clarification, the contest rules state that storms that begin their life cycle in a given month then go on to count in that month regardless of when they begin the higher stages, but I always score both ways so people can compare. It has often happened in past contests that an Aug 30 or 31 storm becomes a hurricane in early September (all counting for August). As to the timing of the named storm portion, that has been based on EDT in the past contests, not UTC. That effectively means that 03z is the cutoff for this system (No. 6) to count in August. If it isn't a tropical storm by 03z, its further development goes into September. Classification as T.D. Six would not change the timing. I can't see anyone being adversely affected by Florence hitting the books for August so I think we're all rooting for this -- most scores would gain about 2 or 3 points.

12z GFS shows Jebi striking the central Honshu coast on Tuesday around 10-12z (late evening Japanese time) with central pressures remaining sub-920 mb. Looks very similar to Katrina on these maps. The current landfall zone is south of Osaka placing Nagoya and Chita in the forward sector but Osaka and Kyoto very close to the fast-moving eye as it swerves northeast. I've been advising travelling friends who at this point are booked into hotel in Kyoto 1st to 4th but main point being this could shift either way so at this point just as safe to be there as Tokyo or far western Honshu. The models have been fairly consistent for days although speeding up the landfall, with respect to central Honshu as the target. Could be a high impact storm for any of these large cities or even Tokyo especially if track shifts east at all. On this track looks like Tokyo would see cat-1 conditions while Nagoya and Chita could see as high as cat-4. You also have to wonder if a significant earthquake would be imminent given these approaching tidal stresses.

The contests are quite close, be sure to enter on time for September before the Labor Day weekend (and have a good one) ... As always, predict the temp anomaly (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ DEN_PHX_SEA Good luck !!

--- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - Aug 2018 ====>>>> -- ----   Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. ... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug). ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) ... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^ ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already). ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #) ... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now) ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. ... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn.  FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________536 _556 _528 ___1620 ____ 438 _526 _360 ____1324 ___ 2944 __2*3*2 13*1 .2.1 __ MAY DonSutherland.1 ___ 472 _464 _474 ____1410 ____ 383 _522 _425 ____1330 ___ 2740 ___ 000 220 .0.1 wxallannj __________ 456 _484 _496 ____1436 ____ 396 _432 _473 ____1301 ___ 2737 ___ 001 001 .0.0 hudsonvalley21 _____ 437 _444 _440 ____1321 ____ 371 _481 _541 ___ 1393___ 2714 ___ 000 001 .0.1 jaxjagman _________ 458 _428 _464 ____1350 ____ 395 _486 _465 ____1346 ___ 2696 ___ 001 000 .0.1 ___Consensus ______ 441 _445 _478 ____1364 ____ 391_478 _451 ____1320 ___ 2684 ___ 000 100 .0.0 BKViking ___________435 _477 _492 ____1404 ____ 353 _467 _457 ____1277 ___ 2681 ___ 001 000 .0.1 wxdude64 _________ 481 _462 _428 ____1371 ____ 368 _464 _437 ____1269 ___ 2640 ___24^0 002 .2.0 Scotty Lightning (SD) _467 _461 _466 ___ 1394 ____ 393 _441 _411 ____1245 ___ 2639 ___2^11 102 .2^.1 _ JAN^ RJay ______________408 _446 _459 ____1313 ____ 315 _470 _477 ____1262 ___ 2575 ___ 122 001 .2.1 __ APR, AUG Tom ______________ 417 _445 _471 ____1333 ____ 353 _481 _407 ____1241 ___ 2574 ___ 001 000 .0.0 __ JUN Stebo _____________ 389 _396 _436 ____1221 ____ 405 _466 _452 ____1323 ___ 2544 ___ 000 111 .0.1 RodneyS ___________416 _448 _440 ____1304 ____ 375 _420 _430 ____1225 ___ 2529 ___ 210 200 .0.3 _ MAR, JUL ___Normal _________438 _433 _429 ____1300 ____ 372 _453 _327 ____1152 ___ 2452 ___ 001 111 .0.0 __ JAN^ dmillz25 ___________ 386 _375 _393 ____1154 ____ 358 _460 _466 ____1284 ___ 2438 ___ 000 011 .0.0 so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB mappy (5/8) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx _(5/8)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (2)_114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0 Mercurial (2/8) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/8)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/8) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/8) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: * so_whats_happening missed July all shown (2/7) missed March to August, Orangeburgwx (5/8) missed January, July, August.  ... mappy (5/8) missed June to Aug, and H2OTown_wx (3/8) missed April to August.   Part Two: Western and All Nine contests  ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals  for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring  FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 448 _ 592 _ 498 ____ 1538 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 4177 (= 2) BKViking _______________374 _ 568 _ 502 ____ 1444 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 4125 (= 4) __ JUN DonSutherland.1 ________ 448 _ 540 _ 443 _____1431 __________2^1 1 __ Jan _______4171 (= 3) _ JAN^ RodneyS_______________ 464 _ 558 _ 401 ____ 1423 __________ 1 3#1 __May ______ 3952 (= 8) _ MAR, APR, JUL hudsonvalley21 _________ 432 _ 503 _ 475 _____1410 __________ 0 1 1 __ Jul _______4124 (= 5) __ Consensus __________ 400 _ 554 _ 432 _____1386 __________ 0 1 0 _____________4070 (= 7) wxallannj ______________ 420 _ 564 _ 383 _____1367 __________1 1 0 __ Mar _______4104 (= 6) Tom __________________ 425 _ 516 _ 396 _____1337 __________ 1 0 0 _____________3911 (=10) RJay __________________397 _ 476 _ 462 _____1335 __________ 2 1 0 _____________3910 (=11) Roger Smith ____________356 _ 518 _ 448 _____1322 __________ 2 0 1 __ Jan _______4266 (= 1) __ MAY wxdude64 _____________ 432 _ 483 _ 407 _____1322 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 3962 (= 7) __Normal ______________412 _ 480 _ 418 _____1310 __________ 2 1 1 _____________ 3762 (=12) __ FEB dmillz25 _______________ 336 _ 527 _ 435 _____1298 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 3736 (=12) jaxjagman _____________ 332 _ 468 _ 434 _____1234 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3930 (= 9) so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB Stebo _________________ 266 _ 479 _ 250 _____ 995 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3539 (=13) Orangeburgwx (5/8)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15) mappy (5/8) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/8) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20) afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1135 (=17) Mercurial __ (2/8) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/8) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/8) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)  __________________________________________________________________________________________________  Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - August _) REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL New York City _____ 1687 ____ 1566 ____ 1701 _____ 4954 Mid-Atlantic _______ 1704 ____ 1612 ____ 1545 _____ 4861 Central + Western __1774 ____ 1463 ____ 1368 _____ 4605 Philadelphia _______ 1641 ____ 1377 ____ 1574 _____ 4592 __ Consensus _____ 1364 ____ 1320 ____ 1386 _____ 4070 Tenn Valley _______ 1398 ____ 1346 ____ 1244 _____ 3988 __ Normal ________ 1300 _____1152 ____ 1310 _____ 3762 Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1221 ____ 1323 _____ 995 _____ 3539

I'm wondering how many Augusts have performed worse than this one at 2/0/0 which looks rather likely to be the final count. You might have to go back to those low count years around 1910. If 2/0/0 holds up, then these will be the scores (and they are generally not a pretty sight) out of 12 possible points. Updates also through June, July and August combined. 2 1 0 __ 11.0 __ hlcater (new total Jun-Jul-Aug 17.5) 3 1 1 ___ 9.0 __ snowlover 2 (JJA 17.5), UIWWildthing (JJA 15.5) 3 2 1 ___ 7.0 __ Yoda (JJA 16.0), crownweather (JJA 15.5), NCforecaster89 (JJA 15.5), ncskywarn (JJA 15.0), _ _ _ ___________ afewUniv b n (JJA 15.0), NHC mid-range (JJA 15.0), jburns (JJA 14.5), Stebo (JJA 12.5). 4 2 0 ___ 6.0 __ pcbjr (JJA 15.5), SRRTA22 (JJA 13.5) 3.7/2.2/1_5.2 __ Contest mean (JJA 13.1) 4 2 1 ___ 5.0 __ cobalt (JJA 14.0), blunder storm (JJA 14.0), contest normal (JJA 12.5), consensus, (JJA 12.5), _ _ _ ___________ NorthArlington101 (JJA12.0), jbamafanwx (JJA 12.0), jackstraw (JJA 11.5) 4 2 2 ___ 3.0 __ Rtd208 (JJA 10.5) 5 2 0 ___ 3.0 __ OSUmetstud (JJA 10.5) 3 3 2 ___ 2.0 __ jaxjagman (JJA 9.5) 4 3 1 ___ 2.0 __ RJay (JJA 9.5), mryanwilkes (JJA 6.5) 4 3 2 ___ 0.0 __ Roger Smith (JJA 7.0) 7 5 2 ___ 0.0 __ Orangeburgwx (JJA 7.5) These scores will be adjusted if any further tropical storm activity occurs in August, or confirmed around September 1st if not.

One plausible outcome is that the storm, always slowly weakening, never makes landfall (as defined by center crossing a coastline) anywhere populated, and drifts south of Kauai by Sunday to west of Kauai by Monday as a tropical storm. This is the GGEM solution and it makes some sense given the position and intensity of the northeast Pacific high. That would not rule out cat-1 wind gusts over some central and western portions of the state. I would still say though a 30-40 per cent chance of a hurricane landfall and that most likely to be in Oahu or possibly western Maui. But I think the rainfall will be the only major problem and it could be a rather complex pattern given the slow-moving nature of Lane, the rotating bands of moisture, and topography.