burrel2

Euro control run is a suppressed crush job from atanta to columbia to myrtle beach. I'm loving this supression trend. Lets keep this puppy south as long as we can!

I just saw the snowfall maps from the Euro.... I'm at a 10 out of 10 now on the excitement meter. Sure would be nice for the Upstate of SC to jackpot for once in the last 30 years.

We will also be just two weeks away from the winter solstice. So, solar radiation is about as good as you can hope for in a winter storm.

My excitement meter is up to about an 8 out of 10 at this point. Seems like even in the more amped/miller B scenario's CAD favored area's should at least be in for some ice.

Oh yea, that was the worst one of the bunch. Nary a flurry fell at my house in Walhalla. My high school teacher who lived in pickens county had an inch or so on her car that morning when she pulled in to work. Of course Greenville to Spartanburg got hammered.

You are right that it's a multi-factor process as to why we always come out on the short end of the stick. 1. Last to get northwest flow Cold air at the surface,(this is the biggest single factor as any storm where we need cold air to arrive in time with precip, everyone around us will do better which is like 50% of winter storms). 2. NW and Westerly flow Down sloping 3. Lee-side trough development precipitation always barely misses us to the East. 4. Always too far West for Coastal bomb precipitation, (exception for 1993 storm where we we're too far East!, #1 factor also hurt us in this storm) The only way we can score big is with a well-established cold air wedge, but even in those setups Greenville/Spartanburg are a little colder than us!

I Grew up in Walhalla and have lived in Clemson the last 15 years. Even you guys have scored better storms than my back yard. It's really amazing. I would venture to guess if you had a map that highlighted area's that haven't received 6 inches of snowfall in the last 25 years. There would be a tiny dot over Southern Pickens and Oconee counties, and then like no other area highlighted anywhere in the southeast. Even lookout has had >6 inch snowfalls. Here are two examples of my biggest heartbreaks growing up. The second map is January 2nd, 2002. Also, the 2004 map is overdone for my backyard, I got exactly one inch from that one.

4 inches

This winter has already been very special for North West Georgia, All of NC... mountains/central/eastern/coast, and all of coastal South Carolina/GA. The only area really left out so far is the Western/Southern Upstate down to Columbia.

One day, the stars will align and i'll get a big storm, and it will be all that much sweeter after the life-time wait. That's what I've been telling myself the last 15 years or so anyways.

If you call this a clipper than you have to call March 2009 a clipper too I guess, that one was juicy.

My streak of never having a 6 inch snowfall at my house is still in tact.... and i'm 32 years old. I've only witnessed one snow over 4 inches, and that was 5.75 inches in January 2011; of course greenville managed 8 inches or snow from that storm. Edit to add: I don't count Jan 1988 b/c I was 3 years old and don't remember it.

I was honestly expecting to waste .10 of liquid to raining/melting here, but I have .00 in the guage so far with a dusting on the ground and temp of 32.9 and dropping. It looks like we aren't going to waste any liquid! All the short range modells have .25 to .35 of liquidt falling here so I'm thinking 2 to 3 inches is a lock!

Only you could find something to complain about sitting directly in the bullseye of a storm 6 hours out. I might be slightly concerned in SE wake county or anywhere South and east of there, but you should be golden, imo

Lol, I dunno what people have been smoking tonight to make that 84hr NAM panel look so good... but I want some of it!!!

It never freaking fails here.... We finally have a damn near can't miss set up, and the storm just goes poof, when about the last 8 storms have all trended stronger as the event approaches.

Hrrr is cranking a stationary band of snow associated with the upper level low all night in to tomorrow morning across the upstate/nc mountains/ and georgia. Anybody have thoughts on this feature?

Man it is just absoluet ripping snow here! Ground getting white at my house... it's beautiful! Also, loving the looks of the Hrrr for tonight/tomorrow morning.

We need heavier rates/qpf to get the party started. Only .05 of liquid here so far. If we can get a burst of heavy rates I think we flip over to snow pretty fast.

Upper level temps are fine for us for the duration of the event,(north if i-85). It all comes down to the boundary layer and how much we cool off at the surface

Hrrr from this morning shows rain flipping to snow in Mississippi around 5am... Latest runs have that flip happening between 11pm and midnight. But more than that, from years of watching the Hrrr... it has a warm bias at the surface out past 10 or 12 hrs.

Hrrr has a warm bias. Check out it's 7am run today for the San Antonio area... Notice no hint of snow falling anywhere in that region.

White rain is 0:1

Follow the RGEM in the 12 to 36hr range... it's usually right. IMO Normally that's bad news for us, but in this case it looks slightly better for SC/piedmont NC. We'll see if it nails it this time...

I've been burned many times by surface layer warm air that doesn't evaporate as fast as I had hoped, but.... those other times often involved a thicker warm layer, and daytime snow in late february or march where solar insolation would eat in to accumulating snow even at 30 degree's. We are just a a couple weeks away from the solstice right now. I honestly would be ready to push my chips all in for a hammer job if all of the models weren't stuck on bottoming out the upstate at around 35/36. I just don't see how that will be the case if it's ripping it outside at 8am tomorrow morning like most models are showing. But if it is... we won't have any chance for accumulations.