HinghamBoss

@CoastalWxwhite rain here. We cooked?

Next few hours key to see how quickly R/S line collapses and how intense rates are/if we can stick.

Was just catching up on the trends and had the same thought how the 18Z runs look really similar to what the NAM was trying to do yesterday.

1-2” forecast by BOX here. Not saying we are getting a foot, but surprised it’s not more like 4-7”

I'll take the GEFS too.

Sign me up for the GFS. Enough to make it interesting here for a few hours.

What’s really interesting is the 3K had been more meager. Flipped with the 12K.

Game over?

Keep looking at surface map temps and wondering how we accumulate. Dynamics going to be our only friend?

Can someone get Harvey on camera to tell us how this is going to go?

Cannot believe just how how many times things have not broken our way this year.

Do the goal posts change much or are we pretty much cooked?

Appreciate all the NAM talk. Hard to ignore the Euro/EPS signal. Feels like we are starting to get our answer and narrow the goalposts - however disappointing that is for some folks. Present company included

What’s the best way to calculate totals in this storm? Is there a ratio to apply? 7:1?

Would be like getting two feet this winter!

I’m looking at these runs and overlaying with the commentary the last few days. I can understand the comparisons for 4/1/97. This is by no means a twin walking through that door, but I remember how much rain fell before we got dumped on with snow.

What’s your gut here? I don’t see us maxing, but want to believe this delivers a nice 4-8.

Amazed how much of a snowhole we have seen seasonally in these parts. Don't see any reason to believe this storm is any different with the track and temperatures depicted.

G'night winter.

Just catching up. Not the trends I was hoping for. Time to close the shades here?

This has to be one of the all time standoffs. GFS headfake here is next level. Expected it to blink by now.

Another de-amplifying shortwave lifts NE into New Eng as it encounters strong downstream high latitude blocking. Parent low will weaken across the eastern Lakes with secondary low becoming dominant storm as it tracks just south of the New Eng coast. This track will help to lock in low level cold air, especially away from the coast, but for this event we will have a pretty strong SW mid level jet which will bring a warm nose aloft into New Eng. The challenge for this forecast is how far N this warm nose gets Fri night, how much of a front end thump is expected Fri night before the warming aloft and also how much snow falls during Sat over interior northern MA assocd with mid level low. A lot of moving parts which makes for a very challenging snowfall forecast. The GFS is on the colder side of the guidance envelope and we think it is too cold as it typically has a cold bias aloft as it tends to mix out inversions. The other consideration will be snow liquid ratios as marginal boundary layer temps will keep SLR below 10:1, especially outside of the higher terrain. Timing, ptype and snowfall... Snow should overspread the region from SW to NE between 8 pm and midnight Fri evening. We are not expecting any impacts to the evening commute. Mainly snow to start across all SNE as temps aloft are plenty cold enough to support snow, then will have to watch warm nose aloft lift NE into SNE assocd with a 70-80 kt 700 mb jet. Current thinking is this will lift further N than what GFS is indicating and likely get into northern MA. Confidence is not as high as we would like at this time range as a slight shift north or south will have a big impact on potential snow accum. We expect a mix and possible changeover to sleet after midnight in the interior, with a changeover to sleet then rain near the coast as increasing easterly winds overwhelm the boundary layer. Soundings show a fairly deep cold layer in the low levels supportive of more sleet than freezing rain where changeover occurs. The best chance for all snow will be across far northern MA, along and north of route 2 corridor. We have some decent snowgrowth on the front end so a brief period of moderate to heavy snow is likely Fri night with snowfall rates up to 1"/hr, especially away from the coast. The challenge on the coast is SLR and potential melting as temps will be near or slightly above freezing, but nighttime and potential brief heavier rates should help to make up for this and bring minor accum here before the changeover to rain.

Let's break the record for biggest storm of the season!!! (disclaimer: 3" is biggest storm of season).

I am trying to toss the NAM. Still has me worried. I'm talking myself into a 4-7" zone in my neck of the woods, with some upside if the GFS really isn't drunk on the CCB.

If you look at the clown maps, we get there. When you parse it out, I don't see the crazy rates in the overnight hours. It starts to pile up after sunrise. That recipe seems suspect to me. That being said, you can see which model appears to be in the driver's seat.