Burghblizz

Seeing some 9 to 11” reports out east of the city up the 28 corridor towards New Ken.

The orientation of the heavier reports is less to do with longitude, latitude, and elevation, and likely more to do with rates and banding.

(speaking within Pgh metro that is)

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, just to clarify, although one user said the Nam nailed it, I think the general thought was that the Nam foretold that the low may go further west than some suites had it and that it would not be a pure snow event for much of the west like other models alluded to as well.  So many people think the Nam is garbage that it leads to Nam apologists (like me) coming out in droves when it was not all bunk. 

It definitely was an important part of framing up the final result. 

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The snow map shows a report of 7" as of 7 am at the NWS office at 1 N CARNOT-MOON. I believe that's where the official snow records are observed, not at the airport. Given the continued light snow over the past two hours, would have to think they are up to 7.5" or so by now.

It’s Shafer Road in Moon - which is like a mile from the airport. So it essentially mirrors what you would see there.

The NAM was good with showing that there were going to be P type issues even north and west - but I’m not sure I give it too much credit because a wide spread Western/west central PA ice storm really didn’t materialize. Just a lot of mixing and flipping.

Most areas around Pittsburgh look to be finishing 7” to 10” once this morning tapers off. The real prolific stuff got shunted a little more west, as the WV panhandle and extreme western PA should pop some 12” totals. 

The radar pivot and banding last night was awesome. I can’t see that .47” at the airport being accurate, but I don’t think a 2” hour was out of the question. I caught more the tail of that same band and it was rippin.

A line from Weirton to Beaver falls will break a foot. That area did better with avoiding a prolong dry slot before everything pivoted. Most of the rest of us got caught up in it a little too long. Still a beautiful morning 

Got a couple hours of sleep bit woke up to some great bands. 

(By the way, I should have taken King Weenie’s  bet since NWS total is closing in on 7”, and it looks like some 30 dbz are about to rotate in there. 

Radar filled in finally and pivoted. Been cranking for the last couple hours in Cranberry. Just passed 5”

Dumping - back to all snow in Cranberry. 
 

2.5” and .5” fresh during the 20 min I was just walking the dog 

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sleet in Pittsburgh proper now. 

It’s ripping here, despite what K-weenie sells. Been occasionally mixing, but heavy snow at the moment and still early on. 

As far as actual weather and not the weenie fest…

When you have a strong 925 jet advecting into cold air, you have the recipe for some intense rates. But might have to flirt with some sleet to get it. 

Heavy snow in Cranberry. 24 degrees. Wind driven smaller flakes have turned to big  fatties

More wind driven and powdery than I was expecting to begin with 

22 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I feel like I’m posting in the MA thread. I just took my dog for a walk and enjoyed the first dusting starting. If you sit here staring at the computer you will miss it. Enjoy.

One cat basically so weenied out that it makes it MA thread vibe. But they have like 20 like that   

14 minutes ago, Mailman said:

It has begun to spit snow.

Keep those southern obs coming 

15 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Hey let’s not forget as the snow is tapering to 1-3 inches by lunch time tomorrow wind are going to gust to 30 mph. Lots of blowing and drifting.

If we can avoid the snow cone, the blowing and drifting might be understated to this point 

4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah, some of the heaviest snow looks to fall before 1am, then go to bed and don't fret the slot and wake up a few hours later and watch radar fill in, that might be my plan lol. Being east of the city my yard probably needs more of an adjustment.

That’s my plan too. Sleep during dry slot :-)

Just now, TimB84 said:

Thing is, the models suggest we could already have warning-level snow on the ground when Ben lines up in the victory formation and takes a knee.

That’s the plan!

(but I plan on a fun night regardless)

Yinz are going to drive yourselves nuts clicking on hourly increments of hourly models for the 8 hours, and checking where the pretty colors line up. 

I think E to W across central AGC will be the difference between 8 and 12 because of dry slot duration. And N to S along that axis will add or subtract ~2” from that range.

Beaver /Lawrence/Butler certainly have a shot to pop a 15” total. 

3 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

Fwiw here is the official call from nws at 2 am 

And just for fun the “best case” experimental view. That dry slot on NAM is still pretty fierce where I could see a place like Wheeling doubling up Greensburg. But in general, the NAM seems to have lost the total shit show solution, which is one of things I wanted to see.
 

Not sure how Tolleris is resolving the fact that the NW edge outside his sleet line is where the totals should ramp up - yet that’s where he has the totals drop off. Probably the single most important issue in terms of where big totals wind up.

He tries to forecast for a wide area, and doesn’t put diligence into those areas. 

I’ll start to worry about the NAM at 0z.

At that point, all the anecoctal, weather fan reasons to toss it become fewer. It will be an on hour run with the storm arriving within 24 hours. That’s usually where it’s considered good. 

5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yes!

This feels a bit different than 2019, not totally sure why, but it does.  Doesn't mean we don't mixing, but doesn't seem as harsh as that.

Way different with low track. And mixing here means potential sig ice,  not rain like in 1.19

If we can avoid the frozen snow cone…and I think most will to a large degree…they really might want to consider adding “bowing and drifting” to the forecast Monday. Could be 30 MPH winds with snow showers and a lot of snow on the ground. 

1 minute ago, meatwad said:

I wouldn’t worry about the exact orientation of pink and blue. I think that’s a 2” hour.