Burghblizz

20 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

A lot can change but the 12z gfs takes the low next week and rams it right into western PA. 

Snowing in Dallas with a 1048 H to the north. Doesn’t seem likely it would cut that hard 

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Just out of curiosity, how much warmer do we think the City of Pittsburgh (somewhere in the city limits but not downtown) would be vs. KPIT?  The weather app on my phone shows a difference from my location (in the city) and KPIT mostly of 2 degrees.

So, do we really think those records from the 1880s and 1890s or even the early 1900s would be that much different at the airport?  I mean the City wasn't hugely built up then, and even if it were 2 degrees different, many of those records would still be standing.

I think pre-1950 they were at the KAGC site. Similar elevation, just a tad south 

10 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Only 4.2" officially.  Obviously "only" 4.2" is a pretty good storm for us, but we were supposed to get 5", lol.

Airport definitely lighter than the city this time. Probably missed that intial real heavy band. Solid 5-6” closer to city 

Another band is trying to slip south, and then maybe train a little bit. 

14 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Then a once in a lifetime storm struck. 

Until 10 months later :-)

But no, everything about ‘93 (the scale, the wind, etc) was probably once or twice in a lifetime. Nov 1950 is the twice for those above a certain age. 

4 minutes ago, OutnOakmont said:

Just took my dogs out and measured about 5.25"!!! It's superstitious as hell, but it's like we do the best when the storms get very little attention, very little hype. We need more of these low-key sleeper cell storms haha

Funny how that works! Watch a big storm for 5 days and all the intricacies of what can go wrong. Now a front basically gets held up in the right place, and most of of AGC scoring a quick 6”

2 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Very dangerous out right now. Roads haven't been touched. Had about 2" at the airport when I left. Cars stranded all along 376. Accidents. Shocked I made it home. 

Really goes to show you what a huge factor rates are. This came in thumpin 

Reminds me a little of just a fat Lake Effect band training. Seems to be some 4” and 5” totals already south/south west of Columbus (while CMH itself is looking a bit shafted)

I think some from that area to here sees 6” if we can keep the goods training.  

5 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Why I do not remember 2013-2014 being that snowy? Lol 

 

It was all nickel and dimes. I think there might have been a couple 5” type storms. 

Parkway East taking a beating already

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Should be seeing snow start here within the next hour or two by looks of the radar. Hoping that this precip swath finds it's way a tad south of where the 0z short range guidance like the NAM takes it. Could be a fluff bomb for whoever gets the best rates. 

Nice start out here. Ramped up fairly quickly 

Definitely every flake sticking so far. Could be an efficient little storm

I can see how this week is shaping up...

Looking like some nice little snow events this week. But we may not enjoy them since we will be obsessed chasing what the GFS is advertising Sunday. 

Reminder - enjoy the snow that’s falling since the 6 day GFS is likely going to change :-)

11 hours ago, TimB84 said:

I’m as much a fan of cold as I am as a fan of snow, which is to say a pretty big fan. These seemingly endless streaks of above normal months that have become so common, especially in the past five years, are exhausting.

Your bar for cold is pretty high. 12 degrees out right now, and hasn’t hit 40 this month. Hasn’t hit 50 since just after Christmas. Some bitter cold still chances in the pipeline

Not sure if “84” is your birth year...but if it is...trust me it will start to feel colder the next 10 years 

Looks like a good shot at two separate 2-4” snows this week. Latest GFS also shows a bigger storm for Valentines Day. Verbatim it cuts a deepening storm towards a 1036 high up the Ohio River. Would be a big hit for central Ohio, with a rain to snow here. But plenty of time there.

Just now, Rd9108 said:

The NAM is tricking these people into thinking they are getting a 8-12 if not more storm. I'll take any snow at this point and wait for 93 redux. 

It’s likely too progressive for anything big

GFS bringing 2”- 4” into the Mon Valley Sunday. So not quite dead yet for at least some accum 

I admit I was kind of excited in ‘94 to get to -22. Felt like I was seeing history and so I definitely rooted for it. But I can probably take or leave extreme cold at this point. 

12 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Someone can probably verify this but I’m going to say anecdotally we haven’t been below -10 since that infamous day in 1994.

2009 and 2015 saw double digits below zero officially. 

A significant shift is doable because we are talking about phase/no phase and the timing. So I wouldnt be suprised if it jumps one way or another in the next 24 hours of models 

10 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

A couple lake enhanced snow bands is not out of the question today and tonight. So my 8.7” call still has a chance to verify. Lol

Final official total was 8.5”. Felt like less in most places due to long duration and compacting - but NWS does a good job counting every inch properly. Credit on their forecast too. This was a pain, but 6-8” over 48 hours was a good call.

(if we catch a band later, not sure we can count it )

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

The initial WAA phase of the storm with the primary is where I came up pretty short as better precip kind of split this area (going southern tier and up around UNV and N from there). I had under 2 inches all the way until later Sunday Evening.  A few more inches from that and would've pretty much been on target with what I expected here. Otherwise, the 8-14" call with the imbedded area of heavier amounts ended up working out pretty good. 

We wound up with around 7”. Same main issue getting the intial batch going. 

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

And no real snow to boot.  I'd trade the bitter cold if it meant more snow, but now we have less snow and less cold, lol.

Still sends SLP up the Piedmont to the Delmarva. It closes off too late (compared to yesterday) and doesn’t have an expansive shield. But the players are there. 

There is a much more consolidated batch entering eastern Allegheny county. Not sure everything behind it holds together, but looks like the best shot at some more steady snow. 

Also, nice vertical lake enhanced band in central Ohio. Never seen WWA in vertically stacked counties like that - lol. Not the greatest storm for us, but still doing some interesting things. 

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Is this why we don't trust Miller bs for our area?

I mean “technically” 2.2003 and 2.2010 were Miller B’s. But they also had a huge primary storm with a great track prior to hitting blocking. We also had a nice one in 12.2003, and probably a few others.

But I really don’t like the textbook exploding Miller Bs for our area.