Burghblizz

 A lot could definitely go wrong. Not sure we have an analog with a good storm that cuts that far west, and then hits a brick wall and slides east in time to 1) give us heavy precip and 2) not pull warm air in.

That makes it a little more thread of the needle. I will say the nightmare snow hole scenario looks less likely

2 hours ago, Mailman said:

Euro has improved.

I would say so!

5 hours ago, Mailman said:

May have to go to Frederick. lol.

I seriously considered going to the Poconos (free condo) or Breezewood (close drive) for the 12.16 storm. I mean real close to going.

I think I wound up with more snow staying put. So hopefully this comes back to us as well. 

8 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

Apparently roads are a mess back in the south hills and city. I’m at seven springs and it’s clear here for now. 

Seeing 3” in places like Cannonsburg  and Mt Lebanon 

There was definitely some model support for a couple inches this morning, but didn’t make it into the forecasts. So in that way, a nice surprise 

I keep thinking how many times we have said in the past that we would trade in a ton of nickle and dime snows for a few good thumps a year.

Looks like we got our wish :-)

While I do prefer thatI am starting to miss snow and our usual cadence of it.  

15 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Is GFS decent at picking out a pattern earlier and doing the worst after that, or am I imagining that?

I think that is generally correct. Especially in our area where it seems to underestimate warm air advection. So when that is the driver of snowfall, it’s going to underestimate it. When it leads to mixing issues, it also of course underestimates that. The why’s are above my pay grade. The mesoscale models with smaller grid spacing pick up more local nuances and thus are more accurate in the short team

Great start to winter! The Euro and NAM were good at showing the possibility of a prolonged period of snow. Got to love closed lows and negatively tilted troughs in these parts. I still saw flakes even this morning.

I don’t necessarily consider any of these 3 events overachievers per se. The model support was definitely there for these amounts. It’s just nice to have the digital snow translate to real snow.

That’s been a problem the last few years 

NAM picked up on the prolonging of the snow into this afternoon. I feel like this is the type of fluffy snow that will add a sneaky inch or two if it continues. Wouldn’t be suprised to see an event total pushing 6”

The average yinzer with a ruler probably won’t report that much since it might not add much to the depth as last nights snow settles. But with NWS likely clearing their board every 6 hours, they will report > 6”

Merry Christmas! Looks like officially 4.5”, with 3” after midnight

Probably the opposite of the last storm as Moon likely does a little better than city and points east. 

Not sure if it was more the flash freeze or a period of freezing rain, but everything was quickly covered in ice. 

Mod snow/sleet mix right now with a dusting on top of the ice. Quite windy 

17 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Anyone with a good radar site since nws is unusable?

Intellicast is pretty much weenie radar because its pretty sensitive and makes snow shields look huge - but I find its pretty good in outlining R/S lines

GFS is more progressive than the NAM, but both get to about that 5” to 7” range E to W. NAM has it snowing about 6 hours later into Christmas Day.

The upper levels have a closed low with negatively tilted trough. Might be a good sign that this meanders a bit as opposed quickly sliding away. 

NAM is maybe a tick west with the heaviest axis, but similar for us to 18z (which was more robust than 12z)

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

No offense to DT, but I don't understand his map. How can his "up to 1" line go up directly against his 3" line?

Shouldn't there be a 1-3" area somewhere in between?

I think he has been doing it that way close to 20 years. The intent is to look at the lines and project based on what lines u are between and/or near. 

But you are right, those gaps can get pretty tight in some areas, plus he goes from <1 straight to 3 in this case. So if you are 20 miles east of the 3” line, no clue if he is thinking “almost 3” or “under 1”. Then you hit the 6” line 30 miles the other way 

Plus it doesn’t account for local climo factors. Much better ways to present it these days. 

Tolleris is a bit east of most guidance, but he thinks true central has a shot for significant snow 

1 minute ago, north pgh said:

Wow Canadian!

Merry Christmas!

GFS a good 6”-7” as well. Models are advertising a suprisingly (to me) wide swath of decent snows. That would seem to give us a bit more wiggle room

This look screams of “uncertainty”, but I think we would all take it on Christmas morning 

Role reversal from last time....hope the NAM isn’t on to something 

This is going to be tricky with timing. I can see a bit of a west trend where the post frontal snows have less precip

Looks like an active period to track. One thing  the virus can’t eff with

Only thing better would have been to maintain more of the snow pack. 
 

26 minutes ago, canderson said:

I read somewhere the NWS is taking the forecast discussion off its site and only available to Mets. Is that true?  

 

 

 

 

Maybe they heard us complaining that PIT doesn’t get hyped enough.  So they figured “not for weenies”. There was a person we used to look out for, but doesn’t look like he/she still does it.

I hope they leave them up. I think NWS sites have great info, but they could use help with making the layout more intuitive (and standardized)

35 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Man, not sure how I feel about the new radar on the NWS site. I can't seem to get it to even load on my chromebook, and can not get it to really loop. 

It blows. I have a much better feel for how the other radar translates into what the intensities will be 

9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

You guys seeing much out of this patch of snow in the western half of the state this evening?

Making for another great night. Like being in a snow globe. I’d call the additional accumulation just a “dusting” at this point