Burghblizz

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

I'm no expert but it looks like the NAM is coming in North and West. The high in Canada is pretty significantly north of 18z.

My weenie eyes saw the same thing

It would be nice to verify on higher end of those plumes again. Will be tough to do that back to back 

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Looks like the NAM closes off the low and is tucked. 

Likely the NAM being the NAM. The 6z GFS did tick a slight bit west but looks nothing like the NAM. Maybe the NAM steals a victory but no other guidance looks like this. Still time for things to change and we've seen now casting where a low ends up 50 miles west or east of the major models. 

Noticed that as well. Will be interesting if that keeps showing up. NAM might be overly optimistic, but it seems the upper levels as it depicts it supports its track 

NAM sometimes a trend, sometimes a tease. And 84 hours is only wed eve. Hope the globals can provide a similar look by tonight.  

4 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Seems like the OP’s have the 850’s more tightly wound. 
Would like to see a more elongated 850 low, and 500 low for that matter. 
Basically if someone else has to get 2ft for us to get a 1ft, then so be it. 

Agree - as long as it’s a solid foot and not 10 miles away :-)

1.2016 was the worst in recent memory. 5” and 15 miles from me had 15”. But you clear a foot all is good 

29 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I don't believe Middletown or any of the previous location of the weather station have ever recorded a day with more than 10" of snow in December. As depicted this event is almost on the scale of what tropical storm Lee did to the swatera creek in 2011

Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk
 

I feel like Christmas  ‘02 would have been as I was there (Unless you mean physical calendar day which I’m not sure)

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Heh, man what a track.. Nothing like these old forecasts with big CRT monitors etc in the background.

I remember that TWC map. We had a first wave that overperformed and were sitting on like 8 or 9”. That supposed to be 12+ additional, but the big snows from the coastal cut off around somerset. We wound up with about a foot total where I was.  Pretty sure they got 3’ in Somerset 

2 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Not exactly the same setup, but this was an early holiday present. Early dismissal Thursday the 10th, and school closed on Friday. 

 

That was so close to being a epic storm. Double digit snows over most of the area, but just missed a widespread 2-3’

(of course that happened anyway 3 months later, and close to that again 13 months later. Good times)

This shortwave energy on the backside of this means business. Nice icing on the cake 

Nice kickoff to winter. And with a lot of people working from home, this is the most positive I’ve seen the general public about snow in awhile 

(homeschooled kids not pleased I bet :-)) 

3 hours ago, 40westwx said:

I come from the school of life.. I can sniff out bs.  This whole thing smells to high hell.  Its about control and fear... our great grand children will be studying this period in world history as the time in which social media "crowd sourced" a pandemic by creating a snow ball that couldnt be stopped.

It will be cautionary tale.

The cautionary tale will be how demogoguery worked and propaganda sites laundered disinformation. Mostly driven by the need to have an exact answer that doesn’t exist, and not wanting to adjust their own reality.

So “they”...whoever “they” is....wanting “control” is an easy false narrative. The reality is more boring  - a society trying to figure out the balance of saving lives and keeping livelihoods. 

(Fortunately, most of us that understand weather modeling also understand how math shows us this is a huge problem when scaled over many encounters. And that reality exists even if things such as death rates are modest)

But people who get a high off of having an “alternative viewpoint” get an adrenaline rush. And yes, I know the red herring responses - those have been well developed. But that whole mindset might be the biggest thing that perpetuated this into a long slow burn. That is what history will frown upon 

As crazy as the NAM is, it might be at least be worth mentioning that we haven’t  officially had more than .1” of snow in May since 1966 (when in snowed 3”). And I think there was a 2” type event a few years earlier. So the bar for “historic” is pretty low this time of year. 

This looks heavily rate dependent to have a chance for anything 

Airport looks like it’s going to wind up between 4” and 5”. So that should creep the seasonal total up past 17”.

i still consider this somewhat of a lost season in terms of total snowfall. But I like getting the total back to respectability so it doesn’t screw up our new 30 year avg

47 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Eye balling the deck rail looks like close to 3 inches and still coming down.

Seeing a 4” report already in New Ken

1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Looks like you all in Allegheny county have been ripping for awhile-still raining here with a ping here and there

About 2” so far - precip shield still seems pretty robust

The way this year has gone I won’t complain about when and where the snow falls - but we do have an uncanny ability for rush hour or night snows

Happy February 5th!

10 years already

13 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Found these maps out there. Pretty interesting to see where we are so far in snowfall. Not the bottom, but pretty damn close

Great visual - and while I seriously doubt its going to be the least snow ever recorded, it’s telling that it’s on the pace of that year 

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

But even with a low that far away to the east, how would it be warm enough for rain?  I mean come on.  How do we win?

Someone said it above - reminds me of a March storm without a cold airmass and P types are influenced by Dynamic cooling and rates 

We’ve only had 1 or 2 winters in the last 40 years that we’re under 20” - but the way this is going we could make a serious run.

On the bright side, less time pissed off over near misses. ☺️

PS: I feel like the new Snow Squall warning is a bit overused. We had one in the early 90s that also came with warning criteria snows. So it was a pretty special event. Now it’s changed to just a low visibility squall. I get needing to keep people aware, but warnings (with all kinds of alerts on people’s phones going off) is a bit much

3 hours ago, Mailman said:

I see we got NAM'd for tomorrow.

NAM probably a little crazy - but The later GFS runs seem to like the idea of a couple inches being possible 

8 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Anyone live in the area near Robinson? There must be some decent elevation out this way. I started working here a few years ago and I can't get over the difference in snow here compared to home (Oakmont). 

I’d imagine that is similar to the airport ~1250’

Oakmont along the River is probably similar or maybe a tad higher than downtown (I’d guess 900’)

Rippin downtown 

Nice band setting up city and points NW

Looking to win some of these 50/50 storms this year!

Not sure I’ve ever seen a scenario like yesterday afternoon. Just a mention of a brief pop up shower or storm in the forecast. Not a lot of coverage. But one little cell in that blew up just east of the city. Not sure there are any official reports, but based on the video, Lawrenceville had to have seen winds pushing 100 Mph