Burghblizz

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Don’t they have a Pittsburgh thread on here?

Asking for a friend....

You can have  him 

1 hour ago, dj3 said:

Yea it’s going to be a different storm than what we’re used to for sure. Just had on Kdka and they mentioned 1-2” per hr rates later this afternoon so we’ll see. 

She was saying that on Twitter too.

We’ll see if it materializes. We didn’t come out guns blazing this time, but still will be interesting. 

About an inch or so in Monroeville. Relatively windy with this current burst

HRRR still likin us

10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Again, very important to note here that this literally does fall over almost two days. 

This is not news. It’s always been trying to get a nice front end, and then see how the coastal develops over the second 24-36 hour period. This version of the NAM didn’t produce the way some others have. 

The other thing we have been watching is the heaviest intial band slipping a bit south. This NAM shows that a bit too.

13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well here we go, I'm kicking this off now so we can have some of our last minute model guidance discussion organized together with an overall storm thread. Plus we're about 12 hrs from this getting into the region. Western PA folks are welcome too if they want to share their obs/discussion. 

Current Obs: Clearish, 32ºF. Snowboard deployed

We’ll let yinz know how this front end is looking 

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Their forecasts aren’t aligned...at all lol.

Shift changes

1 minute ago, jwilson said:

Sorry, I'll show it a little better here.

That 700H "jet" almost orients itself right toward our area.  Very close.  Next frame is more important to see how it evolves.

 

If we could get that motion to orient more W-E instead of NE-SW, we'd hit those better rates.

 

We miss the ideal frontogenesis and convection, but just barely.  A strong enough easterly fetch could get us those bigger totals.  However, like I said, I don't want to rely on the placement of this feature, and the CMC is by far the most intense with it, overall.  I'd rather get more of our precip from the first round with the primary and hope for bonus snows after the coastal cranks.

Great analysis 

Just now, north pgh said:

For what’s its worth the HRRR is great 

 

It will be fun nowcasting the intial surge. Need to get off to a good start

Agree - we are in a good spot between those two mitigators (agitators). But they lurk. I like that our swath has widened. 

I tend to think that even though that intial heavier burst is just to the south,  mixing is much more of an issue. So I’d still bet North Hills does better than South Hills, even though total QPF is lighter 

Euro has that intial heavier band setting up just south. Eventually evens out a bit.

This all would require clean front end and a prolonged back end - but looks very much in play. Love the relative wide swath everywhere

32 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Gfs caving with temps 

Shows about 1.3” QPF too.

Its still a little dicey with temps - but has a 12” bullseye in NE AGC. More slop to the south 

If you were hoping for some coastal love, the NAM won’t disappoint. Fires like  20” back to Indiana county - 

Everywhere else around AGC foot-ish. Still trying to mix south a bit 

3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro looking close to that same 8-9” type output in the city or just south - but instead of the snow hole over Morgantown, it has a 12” bullseye. And the totals trail off from the city north. 

This really shows some of the complexity with track, temps, and the dry slot (which could hurt those borderline temps, in addition to less precip. So double whammy where that happens). 

I think Euro overall is a slightly better look for us since the dry slot seems to be in central WV. So more wiggle room as long as that shear to the NE doesn’t get us

Just now, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Sucks for me in the laurels but yinz need to win another one!!

I have a feeling beyond 84, that little screw zone would catch up a bit. 

1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

NAM stops the bleed South, actually ticked back North this run. Still a solid Precip shield over us at hour 84.

Looks 12z Euro-ish. Exception might be some mixing in the middle, but looks like still a solid fetch of moisture going at the end. 

5 minutes ago, Mailman said:

NAM coming in south of 12z.

We’ve heard for years not to study the NAM at 84...but I’m gonna. 

Def south, but almost looks like it wants to force that intial heavier snow south, and/or have it fizzle sooner. 

Im OK with that look at this point - just seems like mixing is the bigger concern than full suppression

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Let's get the primary to trend stronger and further south somehow and thats how we win. I'm just glad to be tracking again. 

The key for that could be that 1034 high. Was slightly south of 0Z as the run progressed

Euro is colder with a more robust strip of 12+ streaking through central Ohio. That was less pronounced at 0z, and basically makes it all the way to Pgh now. 

i think it’s the result of a slightly further south track of the primary. 

 A lot could definitely go wrong. Not sure we have an analog with a good storm that cuts that far west, and then hits a brick wall and slides east in time to 1) give us heavy precip and 2) not pull warm air in.

That makes it a little more thread of the needle. I will say the nightmare snow hole scenario looks less likely

2 hours ago, Mailman said:

Euro has improved.

I would say so!

5 hours ago, Mailman said:

May have to go to Frederick. lol.

I seriously considered going to the Poconos (free condo) or Breezewood (close drive) for the 12.16 storm. I mean real close to going.

I think I wound up with more snow staying put. So hopefully this comes back to us as well. 

8 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

Apparently roads are a mess back in the south hills and city. I’m at seven springs and it’s clear here for now. 

Seeing 3” in places like Cannonsburg  and Mt Lebanon 

There was definitely some model support for a couple inches this morning, but didn’t make it into the forecasts. So in that way, a nice surprise 

I keep thinking how many times we have said in the past that we would trade in a ton of nickle and dime snows for a few good thumps a year.

Looks like we got our wish :-)

While I do prefer thatI am starting to miss snow and our usual cadence of it.  

15 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Is GFS decent at picking out a pattern earlier and doing the worst after that, or am I imagining that?

I think that is generally correct. Especially in our area where it seems to underestimate warm air advection. So when that is the driver of snowfall, it’s going to underestimate it. When it leads to mixing issues, it also of course underestimates that. The why’s are above my pay grade. The mesoscale models with smaller grid spacing pick up more local nuances and thus are more accurate in the short team