Burghblizz

NAM and GFS agree about as often as opposing political parties - but they have both been pretty consistent for a quick 2”-3” Monday morning 

(NAM maybe a tad more because it’s actually a little colder)

I got a nice band overnight and woke up to about 2” on my car (so we’ll call it slightly less). But then that dry slot was fierce.

26 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah I don't think I saw any models snow before midnight at the earliest. Probably doesn't mean much but can't hurt right? I think usually the WAA snow starts faster than modeled most of the time.

I have a theory that it’s really undermodeled up the 119 corridor, just west of the ridges. That’s the area that the newer models really show the enhanced  screw zone first when the warm tongue is an issue. 

But it also appears that that area does very well during WWA snows. I could be way off in saying that somehow the positioning relative to the ridges makes that process more efficient - but it sure seems that way.

Exhibit A to that theory is that corridor is getting drilled pretty good right now 

11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

NAM had like 4 or 5 so maybe we get lucky and overperform. Obviously we aren't talking 6+ but 4 or 5 would be a good event. 

I could see 5” or 6” south east of the city. Moisture looks pretty robust and those areas will be in it longer, 

I was half expecting some Virga with this first batch, but sticking efficiently. Could be another little storm where we maximize every flake!

Meanwhile - snowing pretty hard again right now. Band looks mostly west-east going through the city and just south 

11 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said:

I’m just trying to learn from everyone.  It seems to my very inexperienced eye, the kuchera is always way higher totals than what we either expect or end up getting?  How come?  

Basically a guy  named Kuchera came up with a complicated formula. We like it because it usually shows more snow. So you will see it more on this forum. 

But what I think it is is a formula that uses  the highest temp found at 500 mb, and thus can account for temps in the column a little better.

I think the intial intent was to project how much compacting will take place, but it does usually show more than 10:1 unless there is a lot of sleet. 

Thats basically what I remember - but I mostly like it because it shows more snow 

15 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Today has been a nice surprise of a day. Snow has been falling and blowing the last 6 hours with winds of 25 mph. These days always amazed me because it is 22 and snowing here and 50 across the state in Philly. That's why I will take our Winter climo over theirs any day. 

A little over an inch today officially of bonus snow 

Just now, TimB84 said:

There’s a notable gap in the watches somewhere... 

Those Southern Ohio zones (which would figure to do similar to us with this) have a lower threshold.  They can pop em up with 4”+ expected

2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Today has been a nice surprise of a day. Snow has been falling and blowing the last 6 hours with winds of 25 mph. These days always amazed me because it is 22 and snowing here and 50 across the state in Philly. That's why I will take our Winter climo over theirs any day. 

These days are nice when u have a decent snowpack. 

Just now, TimB84 said:

Likewise. I didn’t live here in 2010, unfortunately. I was old enough in March 1993 to know it was historic, but 8 year old me certainly wasn’t tracking the storm. So I have yet to track even a 12” snow event in Pittsburgh, unless I’m forgetting one.

60 days ago...:-)

NAM a little better. Looks like 7-8”.  Double digits into Greene and Fayette. Nice little 12-15” weenie area in northern WV.

Just need to pop that north a bit (I’m talking that precip area, knowing that it will be shaved down in real life)

2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Agree with this. I wasnt here for the historic 2010 storm. I was in Youngstown still. While we picked up about a foot, you guys know how good it feels to be so close to something epic. Even picking up a foot stung in that situation.

That was me in Dec ‘92 and Jan 96. But I’ve learned that I’ll deal with that if I get a foot. That’s kind of my threshold 

Now 1.16 was a kick in the nuts. Got 5” while 40 miles away got 20”

Thankful to have been on the good side of that in 03 and 2010

Here were the Euro ensembles on Saturday. Not 5 days out, 48 hours out. As tight of a cluster as you see, with one major outlier. It wound up west of that outlier.

Not sure what caused performance that poor, but certainly some time for this to slide NW this time.

(Again, from Saturday)

36 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

This has overperformer written all over it. No science  behind my prediction but I'm just feeling like 7 or 8. As always dont listen to me though I'm just a dumbass weenie. 

The “science” is the southeast bias in the models. Let’s watch them come to us over the next 24 hours 

(Of course when we need it...lol)

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

 Looks like they used to do it. 

That used to be taken from NWS. They started doing their own like 15 years ago 

I’m not sure places north and west did that great, even into western  Ohio and New York State. Seems like a lot of low ratios and quick moving. I didn’t really look until now, but wanted to see what we missed out on. 

3 minutes ago, north pgh said:

They should all be scared. It is too early to post accumulation amounts. They should use the old forecast from years ago and say ...snow with some accumulation possible. Wait until tomorrow when these models are more in line. 

Right - I like the old “significant accumulation possible” as an alert. But I’d wait for actual totals.

Or you pop up a couple scenarios.

41 minutes ago, dj3 said:

I'm surprised the NWS is bullish on this one. It looks like a relatively weak low and it doesn't really strengthen much as it turns up the coast despite taking a pretty good track for us. 

Lot of moisture streaming up though, and better HP placement. I don’t think this has the 10” potential the last one did,  it I’d rather shovel 5” of snow than 10” of potential 

Skating rink right now, with a lot of precip to go. At least it’s pretty fast moving.

We haven’t had a true ice storm in awhile - usually pretty transient on the way to rain. But this looks like it could get rough.

I used to like them as a kid because they “felt” like a snowstorm. You got your NWS headlines and off school. 

Just now, CoraopolisWx said:

Love the rare daytime heavy snow. 
Keep on padding the stats. 

It’s Amazing our propensity for night snows

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Looks like the NAM has the snow/sleet line wrong. Stolen from LakeEffectKing in the Upstate thread. 

 

Lol - don’t start. I already found myself noticing HRRR soundings holding on to snow a little longer.

Maybe we can squeeze out a quick second thump before the ice 

Thumpin hard right now. I went outside. Need to enjoy every flake for the time spent - lol

Icy as hell out again. Not sure if there was more freezing drizzle overnight, or this first batch of snow started as some

2 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said:

Just want to point out that in the 13 years I've been on weather forums that this is by far the most active our sub forum has been 

It’s been a fun year overall, despite this recent mess. Still think this winter has something more in store 

7 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

In theory a stronger more NW storm could serve to suppress heights in the east and boost confluence allowing the Thursday storm to track under us.

It does show some blocking and a decent (6”+) hit of snow. Also shows it retrograding through Ohio, and then creating a mess. I’m going to really try not to model watch again until Wednesday