Burghblizz

That boundary is tight. GFS was actually a little colder than 12Z, but didn’t extend the wave of precip as far into Friday. But it largely held serve.

The NAM wasn’t anything great for us, but does get a raging sleet storm pretty close. 

Still think this feels like big hit for NW PA/NE OH. My glimmer of hope is that I have seen the rushing of cold air undermodeled here, similar to the way warm air advecting often is. 

43 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I'll listen to you on this as you kind of nailed the MLK storm a few days in advance and said there were pretty major concerns.

 

Not sure what it is about that storm that you have turned a 6” to 10” storm (with general 6-12” type forecasts into a “bust”. Stop looking at the prettiest color on the best model. 

Euro isn’t great, but those more robust snows are inching SE

GFS ensembles are a lot more NW.

Overall trend is good, but we really need that high to push down. That’s what I’ll be watching as far as trends in strength and position. 

I expect the Euro to have its shit all over Lake Erie. But if it’s also south, I’ll really start to believe. 
 

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

But that’s rough, to miss out on the bullseye and an epic storm by 50-75 miles and just get a garden variety 8-12 event. It’d be a topic of discussion in this thread for weeks.

I’m some circles…but there is a great complaint thread for that 

Another 8-12” would great, especially considering the best contour in the best model isn’t our “forecast”

This still “feels” a little NW to me for that, but still time. Gotta get that cold air on the march

Just now, north pgh said:

You know what at this point if Youngstown gets 15 inches for us to get 8 I will take it. 

No doubt 

4 minutes ago, north pgh said:

This look will be likelly be a overstated versus Kuchera because I think it pretends frozen is snow. 

Quite a conveyor belt of moisture with this. And these waves don’t look overly strong. 

It I had to guess, Youngstown does much better than us as far as straight snow, but it really is just a timing issue to get us in the really good stuff. 

32 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I travel for my job throughout the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, and it lets me be witness to many snowstorms that I would miss being in Lancaster.

I have been through the November 2014 Lake Effect event in the Buffalo area and the February 2013 snowstorm in Connecticut (reports of 8” per hour).

Maybe just me, but there is nothing like a snowstorm in your own backyard.


.

Part of me thinks that if I’m traveling, I’d rather still have the storm back home (and miss it) versus getting it on the road somewhere. 

(obviously, nothing beats actually experiencing it in your backyard)

7 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Let’s hope it’s a trend. This model is currently on its own. 

UK has a good hit too.

There is a bunch of ice on that GFS. Would be high impact taken literally.

UK south AF. Much better look. 

9 minutes ago, north pgh said:

   

Taken literally, I’m like 20 miles from the foot line, but yeah, not a fan of that look.

7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Oh God.  Don't drag me in yet.  Still too far, lol.

 

The trends look positive though.

The bulk of the rest is north. If GFS rejoins south by tonight, I’ll be dragged in

6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Some thoughts from a PGH met on another forum 

 

I would be very cautious with the current GFS solution for a couple reasons:

 

1) It is more than a day faster with this follow up wave compared to all other guidance, which fits into its bias of being way too progressive with disturbances.

 

2) It does not do a good job at all with handling the impact of low-level cold.

Euro looking good, so good to have a model without a SE bias on board.. Going to take some threading the needle. 

Never like being on the southern end of the good stuff 

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

If you guys think i’m bad there are dudes in the NE threads complainig about 10-15 inches sorry well as many in NYC complaining about 10+.
 

dony forget too those areas pretty consistently see huge storms…16 inches last year was NYC’s 17th biggest total ever and would rank 6th here.

You’d be complaining about the going almost a year between inches (like Boston almost did) or 1/2” winters (like Philly just had.

HALF of those NYC storms happened in the last 20 years. I’m not sure if it’s a remarkable stretch of luck, or a product of climate change. Probably a little of both. 

Its also all relative. I complained a little about a foot in ‘96, knowing how close it was to being much bigger.

Our NWS list is a little understated for big storms, if you draw the line at 16”. Most areas also had 16”+ in ‘03 and ‘94 as well. And 30ish” in ‘78 that was really back to back over 4 days. 

We fixed the 8-12” drought with some nice ones lately. Been 12 years for 16+. I think it’s time, but enjoy what you got until then

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Suppose the NWS predicted you’d end up with a foot of snow but you got 9” mixed with a little bit of sleet. Would you complain about it for upwards of a week?

We’ve never seen that 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Let's be completely honest here - if you woke up with CTP forecasting 30-40" for you, and saw it was  reduced to 12-18" a few hours later...I think you'd not be on the "I would take it for sure" campaign.  

NWS for Boston has been in that 12-18” range. Maybe just recently bumped to 18-24”. So I think that’s just models zeroing in on reality

Weenies will Weenie, but 30” to 40” was just model runs (and maybe the 10% NWS high end potential map)

7 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Who was expecting 1-2 inches of fresh powder this morning?

Looks like it has a little more water content than the past few snows - so really nice morning with a freshened up snow pack and it clinging to the trees 

On 1/18/2022 at 6:26 PM, dj3 said:

Thar should work. 

It’s crazy how the GFS had this 10+ days out to the day, and with intensity not far off. It was never our storm as it got in a more realistic range, but it was always on the map. 

Got to -9 IMBY. 

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Look, I complain, but my area has had like 1 storm in the past decade that surpassed a foot. How many has DC had?

We quite literally just had DCs annual snowfall in the last 9 days. People in my neighborhood are running out of places to put it. And 3 9-12” storms in 4 years, and like 8 6” storms in 4 years

But go ahead. Move a mile from DCA. Post often. 

Or go to Columbus. They ain’t seen 6” in 6 years.

11 minutes ago, Festus said:

Same shit...different day.  Except DP is 19 now.  Too funny.  Is anyone getting anything from this so far?  What's moving through Pittsburg right now doesn't look too bad.

Probably won’t produce the 2-4” that yesterday’s did here, but maybe another 1-2”. Just had a heavier burst winding down.  Might crack 15” in the last 8 days, so no complaints. 

15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Yeah we need a lot of help if we want this storm. Honestly give out east the storm instead of coming far enough west to fringe us but not give us anything significant. CMC has a bomb that crushes i95. I'll laugh if the 12z euro shows an inland runner just to troll the Mid-Atlantic and 95 guys. 

CMC looks like it wants to blow it up and maybe even retrograde it, which could still put us in the game. 

Officially about 13” since last Sunday. If we didn’t have the one warm day in the middle of last week, we’d have a pretty stellar snow pack. Still looking forward to another nice afternoon. See if we can tack on another 2 or 3.