jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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Ripping now here
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Be bad news for Huntsville if it switches back to ZR
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Seems that way
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esoscale Discussion 0113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 180144Z - 180615Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible from Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky. There is some indication in observations and forecast soundings that sleet could mix in at times. Snowfall should decrease from west to east starting at midnight CST with lingering freezing rain/drizzle possible. DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy snow has developed within an area of modest 850 mb warm advection across eastern Kentucky. To the southwest, mid-level ascent has helped to produce moderate to heavy snowfall in the Memphis vicinity. This ascent will continue to overspread portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee as well as eastern Kentucky this evening. The expectation is for moderate to locally heavy snowfall to occur in this region. The 00Z BNA observed sounding showed a 0 C near-isothermal layer around 850 mb with sleet being intermittently observed in Nashville. With low-level warm advection forecast to increase during the evening, it is possible that some sleet with mix in with snow, particularly with southern extent. Snowfall rates are likely to diminish from west to east starting at about midnight CST/1 AM EST as lift/moisture in the dendritic growth layer decreases with the shortwave passage. Thereafter, lingering light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible.
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All he did was show a pic,good grief
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Cullman is North of Birmingham
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Nice,that should head this way,hopefully
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http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201044.htm
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ational Weather Service Nashville TN 636 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... With reports of sleet becoming dominant precipitation type approaching 6 PM CST, updated suite of forecast products to address with chances of freezing rain and snow continuing. In some locations a change back over to all snow has begun to occur over last few minutes. If this trend continues, an update to suite of forecast products shortly after top of hour likely to be issued. KOHX 00Z Sounding showing a very slight warm nose approaching a degree Celsius at 887mb that is likely allowing production of this sleet across mid state region.
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Back to snow again
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Nice
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We have IP now
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Mesoscale Discussion 0111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Areas affected...southern/central Arkansas...southwest through Middle Tennessee...and northwestern Mississippi Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 172122Z - 180115Z SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow will continue across the discussion area for several more hours. DISCUSSION...Recent observations suggest that the heaviest of snowfall in the discussion area (with rates likely exceeding 1" per hour) was occurring in the general vicinity of Little Rock, Pine Bluff, and Camden in central/southern Arkansas, with lighter, but still moderate snowfall observed farther northeast toward Memphis and Nashville in Tennessee. The region continues to reside in a regime characterized by appreciable lift due to isentropic ascent, with strong low-level flow across central/southern Louisiana impinging on a shallow cold airmass. Though the general focus of warm advection has begun to shift slightly to the east, additional ascent from a mid-level wave apparent via water vapor imagery over north-central Texas was also likely contributing to enhanced snowfall rates in the region. This general regime should continue for at least several more hours (perhaps through 01-03Z or so) before beginning to taper off from west to east in Arkansas later tonight. Beneath heavier precipitation bands, 2" per hour snowfall rates cannot be ruled out. ..Cook.. 02/17/2021
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That band is just training over the same spot
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Snowing,just started,hoping that band to our west holds up
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Mesoscale Discussion 0110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Areas affected...northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and far southern Kentucky Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 171900Z - 172200Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest. 1" per hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN over the past hour. The precipitation itself is likely tied to isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where 50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow sub-freezing airmass. The precipitation itself is outpacing most model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or so. Snow should be the be dominant precip type, though point forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support occasional mixing with sleet at times.
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esoscale Discussion 0108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0915 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Areas affected...the ArkLaTex region northeastward to southwest Tennessee Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 171515Z - 172115Z SUMMARY...A band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue to expand northeastward across the discussion area, potentially impacting the Memphis, TN metropolitan area beginning around 17Z. DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to expand on the northern flank of a precipitation shield covering much of east Texas and western Louisiana currently. Over the past hour, precipitation (falling mostly as moderate snow) has expanded in coverage and intensified across southeastern Arkansas near Pine Bluff/Dumas and vicinity. The overall regime will favor continued expansion of the precipitation into southwest Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi, with the onset of snowfall in the Memphis, TN metro area around 17Z. Several hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will occur in this region through at least 21Z. Point forecast soundings indicate potential for some sleet to mix in with the snow across southern portions of the MD area (generally from Texarkana to Bolivar County, MS). Occasional 1" per hour rates are expected - especially in areas that maintain an all-snow precipitation type. ..Cook.. 02/17/2021
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National Weather Service Memphis TN 957 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 .UPDATE... A vigorous shortwave trough is digging across Southern Plains this evening. Strong southwest flow downstream of this wave is providing a nice fetch of mid/high clouds across the region and this should help temperatures remain steady or even slightly warm overnight as winds become more easterly. Strong vertical motion can be inferred ahead of this trough which will overspread the Mid-South tonight into Wednesday, assisting in large scale ascent. QG forcing fields are quite impressive with this system tonight through Thursday. Finally, the right entrance region to an intensifying upper-level jet will provide additional large scale ascent. On the mesoscale, we do see an area of frontogentic forcing developing on Wednesday, intensifying through the evening hours. This is in response to warm advection above the stubborn arctic dome. This frontogenesis is located within an area of negative equivalent potential vorticity, which implies the presence of convective symmetric instability. This suggests the potential for the development of mesoscale snow bands leading to one or more axes of heavier snow. Exactly where these bands set up is still uncertain. Recent guidance is also trending toward less sleet/freezing rain potential in Memphis and more in the way of snow. That said, only a degree or two warmer in the layer around 850 mb could yield more sleet and really eat into snow totals like the previous event. Farther north and west, snow looks to be the best bet with accumulations exceeding near or above 6 inches. The southeast corner of the CWA is where the most uncertainty exists given the stronger warm nose and marginally freezing surface temperatures. My gut says temps will struggle to climb above freezing even in Monroe County, but that depends on the onset and intensity of the precipitation. At this time, no big changes were made to the snow or ice accumulation forecast but it`s possible ice totals may need to be increased in northeast MS. Regardless, impacts are expected to be significant, especially given the base of sleet and snow that already exists on the ground across nearly all of the Mid-South. Travel will be extremely difficult and power outages are likely.
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Looks like its already picking up some to our NW
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That's some serious ZR the models are showing into WV
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Text might be over doing it to some aspect,it's when the the inverted trough starts to come into play you can see clearly it is bringing with it a warm nose.should effect Nashville just as well but not as bad.Of course the Euro might be wrong,but that is what it is showing
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More than likely from the inverted trough
