jaxjagman

Nice

We have IP now

Mesoscale Discussion 0111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Areas affected...southern/central Arkansas...southwest through Middle Tennessee...and northwestern Mississippi Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 172122Z - 180115Z SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow will continue across the discussion area for several more hours. DISCUSSION...Recent observations suggest that the heaviest of snowfall in the discussion area (with rates likely exceeding 1" per hour) was occurring in the general vicinity of Little Rock, Pine Bluff, and Camden in central/southern Arkansas, with lighter, but still moderate snowfall observed farther northeast toward Memphis and Nashville in Tennessee. The region continues to reside in a regime characterized by appreciable lift due to isentropic ascent, with strong low-level flow across central/southern Louisiana impinging on a shallow cold airmass. Though the general focus of warm advection has begun to shift slightly to the east, additional ascent from a mid-level wave apparent via water vapor imagery over north-central Texas was also likely contributing to enhanced snowfall rates in the region. This general regime should continue for at least several more hours (perhaps through 01-03Z or so) before beginning to taper off from west to east in Arkansas later tonight. Beneath heavier precipitation bands, 2" per hour snowfall rates cannot be ruled out. ..Cook.. 02/17/2021

That band is just training over the same spot

Snowing,just started,hoping that band to our west holds up

Mesoscale Discussion 0110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Areas affected...northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and far southern Kentucky Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 171900Z - 172200Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest. 1" per hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN over the past hour. The precipitation itself is likely tied to isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where 50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow sub-freezing airmass. The precipitation itself is outpacing most model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or so. Snow should be the be dominant precip type, though point forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support occasional mixing with sleet at times.

esoscale Discussion 0108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0915 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Areas affected...the ArkLaTex region northeastward to southwest Tennessee Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 171515Z - 172115Z SUMMARY...A band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue to expand northeastward across the discussion area, potentially impacting the Memphis, TN metropolitan area beginning around 17Z. DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to expand on the northern flank of a precipitation shield covering much of east Texas and western Louisiana currently. Over the past hour, precipitation (falling mostly as moderate snow) has expanded in coverage and intensified across southeastern Arkansas near Pine Bluff/Dumas and vicinity. The overall regime will favor continued expansion of the precipitation into southwest Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi, with the onset of snowfall in the Memphis, TN metro area around 17Z. Several hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will occur in this region through at least 21Z. Point forecast soundings indicate potential for some sleet to mix in with the snow across southern portions of the MD area (generally from Texarkana to Bolivar County, MS). Occasional 1" per hour rates are expected - especially in areas that maintain an all-snow precipitation type. ..Cook.. 02/17/2021

National Weather Service Memphis TN 957 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 .UPDATE... A vigorous shortwave trough is digging across Southern Plains this evening. Strong southwest flow downstream of this wave is providing a nice fetch of mid/high clouds across the region and this should help temperatures remain steady or even slightly warm overnight as winds become more easterly. Strong vertical motion can be inferred ahead of this trough which will overspread the Mid-South tonight into Wednesday, assisting in large scale ascent. QG forcing fields are quite impressive with this system tonight through Thursday. Finally, the right entrance region to an intensifying upper-level jet will provide additional large scale ascent. On the mesoscale, we do see an area of frontogentic forcing developing on Wednesday, intensifying through the evening hours. This is in response to warm advection above the stubborn arctic dome. This frontogenesis is located within an area of negative equivalent potential vorticity, which implies the presence of convective symmetric instability. This suggests the potential for the development of mesoscale snow bands leading to one or more axes of heavier snow. Exactly where these bands set up is still uncertain. Recent guidance is also trending toward less sleet/freezing rain potential in Memphis and more in the way of snow. That said, only a degree or two warmer in the layer around 850 mb could yield more sleet and really eat into snow totals like the previous event. Farther north and west, snow looks to be the best bet with accumulations exceeding near or above 6 inches. The southeast corner of the CWA is where the most uncertainty exists given the stronger warm nose and marginally freezing surface temperatures. My gut says temps will struggle to climb above freezing even in Monroe County, but that depends on the onset and intensity of the precipitation. At this time, no big changes were made to the snow or ice accumulation forecast but it`s possible ice totals may need to be increased in northeast MS. Regardless, impacts are expected to be significant, especially given the base of sleet and snow that already exists on the ground across nearly all of the Mid-South. Travel will be extremely difficult and power outages are likely.

Looks like its already picking up some to our NW

That's some serious ZR the models are showing into WV

Text might be over doing it to some aspect,it's when the the inverted trough starts to come into play you can see clearly it is bringing with it a warm nose.should effect Nashville just as well but not as bad.Of course the Euro might be wrong,but that is what it is showing

More than likely from the inverted trough

I wasnt going to post this,but the warm nose in this east is real ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 18Z FEB16 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) TUE 18Z 16-FEB -5.3 -13.5 125 0 27007 WED 00Z 17-FEB -5.3 -11.6 126 31 32004 WED 06Z 17-FEB -6.9 -3.3 126 6999 04004 0.00 WED 12Z 17-FEB -5.4 -1.3 128 5855 04004 0.00 WED 18Z 17-FEB 4.5 0.1 131 5245 00002 0.00 THU 00Z 18-FEB 1.4 0.9 131 4752 02002 0.01 THU 06Z 18-FEB -0.4 -0.5 130 5136 04003 0.14 THU 12Z 18-FEB 1.2 3.5 132 7813 07005 0.88 THU 18Z 18-FEB 6.1 1.6 132 7388 33004 0.11 FRI 00Z 19-FEB 2.6 1.3 131 5146 36005 0.04 FRI 06Z 19-FEB 0.2 -0.4 130 1938 00005 0.00 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -1.2 -3.0 129 1 00005 0.00 FRI 18Z 19-FEB 2.1 -4.1 129 402 35005 0.00 SAT 00Z 20-FEB -0.7 -5.5 129 727 33005 0.00 SAT 06Z 20-FEB -5.8 -6.9 128 0 04001 0.00 SAT 12Z 20-FEB -6.7 -7.6 127 0 06002 0.00

National Weather Service Nashville TN 300 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 .DISCUSSION... Another bitterly cold day across the mid state. Current 2 PM temps have only warmed to 13 to 16 across the entire mid state area. Clouds have persisted, although a few peaks of sunshine have occurred for those lucky few locations. Next storm system has trended a little colder but is not quite as moisture-laden as previous model runs. Nevertheless, it will still pack a punch and a winter storm watch will be issued soon. It will begin at 3pm Wednesday and continue until 6PM Thursday. An overview of the mslp progs indicates more of a snow oriented pattern whereby the sfc trough inversion is oriented more sw-ne and is a little further to our southeast. isobars across the mid state our more east west and rather flat. The 0C line at 850 mb now appears to be at or below 0C at Nashvile through the entire event. There are still a few outlying mini troughs to the northwest of the main trough. This can be found through the lower levels of the atmosphere. thus, some warming in the lower levels will reach into our eastern and southern zones and may turn the precip over to all rain for a brief time for that area. The winter storm watch will involve 2 segments. segment 1 will include roughly the northwestern two thirds of the mid state, and segment 2 will include the southeastern third. For our northwestern two thirds, we are looking at 1-4 inches of snow with around one tenth inch of ice. For the southeastern third, we have 1 inch of snow and one tenth of an inch of ice. Note that impact based decisions are in support of the southeastern third`s prognosticated snow and ice totals. For the forecast, we will begin to see light snow move in early Wednesday morning across the west. The precipitation will pick up in intensity Wednesday night and we will see mostly snow across the northwest half and then snow, freezing rain and some rain southeast. The precip intensity will decrease but will be all light snow on Thursday night. After a few morning flurries on Friday morning, the precip will then end. For the near term temps, very cold again tonight with steady or slightly falling temps and lows of 10-17. Highs will rebound some and into the 30s by Wednesday afternoon. Looks like 25 to 33 for your low temps Wednesday night. Temps will remain nearly steady on Thursday. For the ext fcst, improving conditions expected with warmer temps. Highs will reach near 50 for Sunday and Monday along with a chance of rain. Mid 50s for Tuesday after the system exits.

No that is the 12z,old run

My maps shows the heaviest snows in the west,the HRRR,is that a old run?

Subsurface is getting colder once again.Even seeing a pool of -4 around region3,to the east there has also been some cooling at the surface lately in the east.

Seems like some signs of a possible resurgent Nina upcoming and also signs it won't be.Some of these models have a warm and cold bias.GFDL seems to be warm while GEOS would keep us in a LaNina the rest of our lives. The last update CPC put out showed the surface continued to warm in the east,but the subsurface got colder around region 3

Snowing now

Ice

Ones by my house are out http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201044.htm

ational Weather Service Nashville TN 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Latest model guidance has trended just a little bit colder for the lowest 3000 ft or so per model soundings, which may lean precip types for the western half to a more sleet/snow mix early on. Latest obs and mping reports coming in showing that sleet is the dominant precip type so far, with freezing rain mixing in. With a deeper near surface cold layer, the probability of sleet will increase, but the slightest adjustment of a shallower cold layer will lean the forecast to more freezing rain. The area that is most vulnerable to changes in the shallow cold air will be a swath of the mid state from Lawrence County up to Sumner, and east from Bedford County up to Pickett. That section of the mid state has the greatest model variability in that cold layer depth... if the cold air is shallower, we will be looking at more freezing rain in that area, and ice amounts will increase. If the cold air is deeper, more sleet will be expected with a possible quicker transition to snow later this afternoon. Did not alter snow and ice amounts much from the previous forecast since the obs trends may help tell the tale early this afternoon. 18Z special BNA sounding will also help assess the depth of the cold air and how well the models are handling it at this time. Other than adjusting wx, temps and pops slightly to line up with latest guidance and obs, no major changes to the forecast.