jaxjagman

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 Day 1 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 26 2021 - 12Z Sat Feb 27 2021 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS... We will maintain a Marginal risk across portions of northern MS/AL/GA into central and eastern TN. Total rainfall amounts, from earlier Thur evening through today, should end up around 2-3" across portions of northern MA/AL/GA. Rainfall rates will never get all that high, given limited instability and quick cell motions. However elevated convective cells will continue to track across the region through the morning hours, with hourly totals locally exceeding 0.5". It is the persistence of these elevated heavy cells moving over the same area that will eventually result in some rainfall totals approaching 3". Overall it looks like rainfall should stay below the 1,3 and 6 hr FFG...thus this mainly just looks to be a soaking rain without much in the way of flood impacts. However, can not rule out some localized, mainly minor, flooding through the morning hours where brief training of the aforementioned elevated convective cells overlaps the increasingly saturated soil conditions. Thus will maintain the Marginal risk across this region. The focus for later tonight into early Saturday shifts northward into central and eastern TN. Model forecasts show a corridor of strong 850mb moisture transport pushing into this region...likely helping expand/intensify shower activity. This intensification of low level inflow also pushes PWs up above the climatological 90th percentile. The main question mark here will be instability. The current model consensus is only a couple hundred J/KG at most...which is likely not enough to get get rates over 0.5" in an hour. However moisture convergence will be quite strong, so it will not take much more instability to start getting rates towards 0.75" in an hour, and the orientation of the moisture convergence axis with the mean flow would support some training. Thus while the most likely solution would suggest rates too low for a flash flood risk, there is at least a small threat of the event overachieving and beginning to approach or locally exceed FFG...which is a bit lower over eastern TN compared to areas upstream to the southwest. We will carry a Marginal risk over this region to account for this threat later tonight into early Saturday. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 27 2021 - 12Z Sun Feb 28 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... Shortwaves rounding a mid-level trough axis situated across the central U.S. will interact with a residual surface boundary draped across the region. As a result, moderate to heavy rain will develop along and just north of the boundary which will eventually lift north as a warm front ahead of a developing system to the west. Anticipate this to occur during the latter half of the forecast period as the shortwave approaches Saturday evening coincident with the upper level jet strengthening helping to promote strong divergence aloft. With return flow increasing through the forecast period, precipitable water values will climb to around 1.25-1.5 inches aided by 35-45 knot low level southwesterly flow by 28/06Z. This is 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. With isentropic ascent along/north of the warm front with modest elevated instability (on average 500 J/kg MUCAPE), rain rates will likely exceed 0.75 inches per hour in some locations. In addition, training may occur based on the deep southwesterly mean wind aligning briefly with the propagation vector. This could result in 3 hourly rainfall totals in exceeding of 1.5 inches. While antecedent conditions may illustrate fairly dry conditions as of late, with recent snow melt, soil moisture is slightly above average. Therefore, the aforementioned rain rates may exceed flash flood guidance resulting runoff and thus scattered flash flooding in some locations. As a result, a Slight Risk was introduced along a narrow corridor where the heavy rain rates overlap with higher soil moisture. The inherited Marginal Risk was modified based on the latest model guidance and resultant WPC QPF. Pagano Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 28 2021 - 12Z Mon Mar 01 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... A trough axis situated across the eastern half of the country will advance south and east through the forecast period. Mid-level shortwaves will continue to round the trough, moving atop a surface boundary/cold front which will act as the focus for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Deep South and TN Valley. Within the warm sector, strong moisture feed and return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will mean a surge in precipitation water values to over 1.5 inches which is around 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. This moisture transport will be aided by 35-45 knot low level southwesterly winds into a strengthening frontogenetic zone within the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. Therefore, large scale lift and deep layer moisture will not be limited; though instability does appear modest. So, while key ingredients for heavy rainfall clearly exists, it is the training and back building of moderate to heavy rain along the aforementioned front that could lead to rain rates exceeding flash flood guidance over 1 to 3 hours in some locations. If this occurs over fairly saturated soils, especially given the additional rainfall on Day 1-2, then localized to scattered flash flooding may occur. This signal is also supported by ensemble probabilities and looks to occur Sunday afternoon through the overnight before the front eventually sinks south. Therefore, a broad Marginal Risk area was introduced with a focused Slight Risk area across the TN Valley where heavy rain/rates will overlap with wetter antecedent conditions. Given some lingering model uncertainty, anticipate there will be modifications made to the extent and position of the Slight Risk area. We will continue to monitor the latest model trends and modify accordingly. Pagano

Subsurface is warming in the east recently ,

Welcome

National Weather Service Nashville TN 157 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 .DISCUSSION... A little cooler today, but all-in-all, not a half bad day. The sun is out and there`s a little breeze. Can`t complain. However, starting tonight? Let the complaining begin. Light to moderate rains will move into our southern zones around midnight and while they`ll likely garner less than a half inch of rain south of I-40 tonight and tomorrow morning, it`ll be a prelude to what`s coming over the weekend. Models continue to be surprisingly consistent regarding the rainfall potential this weekend. 3 to 5 inch totals have been maintained for several days now. I would argue that with the parameters as they are (anomalously high PW values and some convective potential, along with a stationary boundary across the mid-state), 4 to 6 inches is likely with a few spots getting more than that. Of note, models have shifted the axis of these heavier rains slightly further south, with a focus along and south of I-40 and on the Plateau. This is an expected development as models tend to shift northward or southward with time, but what it means is the exact locations that will get the highest amounts is still yet to be determined. That said, I do believe these numbers are legit. In coordination with surrounding WFOs, with flooding concerns not expected to begin until Sunday, we`ll hold off on issuing any Watch headlines at this time, but the likelihood of them being issued on this shift tomorrow is pretty high. Bottom line, look for periods of heavy rainfall, especially Friday night through Monday morning. Speaking of Friday night, there is some indication that we could have a couple of strong storms across the south. However, I`m not wholly sold on this idea as forecast soundings are completely saturated and CAPE is scarce at best, but there is plenty of shear with which to work and mid-level lapse rates aren`t shabby (6.5-7 deg C). I`ll mention it in the updated HWO this afternoon, but in the grand scheme of things, it`s not the biggest concern this weekend. So, overall flooding concerns? Check. Meager strong storms Friday evening? Check. What`s next? Rivers... Grounds are still relatively saturated after the snow/ice melt from last week. We`ll get them primed more tonight and tomorrow night and then the heavier stuff comes in Saturday night into Sunday. With this progression, I think rivers are going to start becoming a problem Sunday afternoon at the earliest as run-off starts occurring. River Forecast Centers are already indicating that several rivers in Middle TN will be an issue as late as Monday and that`ll likely run into the middle of next week. That said, if you have interests near rivers that are well-known flooders, you`ll want to begin taking necessary precautions soon. In the extended part of the forecast, the Euro continues to show two more systems next week (Tue and Thu) and the GFS is maintaining a dry solution next week. Obviously, this doesn`t lead to much confidence in the extended, but if we do end up with more rain on top of what we get this weekend, we could be looking at prolonged river issues. &&

ational Weather Service Nashville TN 156 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021 .DISCUSSION... It`s a warm one out there this afternoon, but worry not; we`re nowhere near record values. The record high for today`s date is 81 set waaay back in 2017. Somebody will have to tilt the earth a little more for that to occur today. Other than the warmth, it`s a little breezy and clouds are starting to build in from the northwest. These are associated with the light rain that is expected this evening. Again, not much to get excited about as latest guidance would suggest some will get none and a few will only see a couple hundredths by sunrise. The big story with this forecast package continues to be the heavy rainfall expected this weekend. If there`s any good news, it comes in the form of confidence because models continue to zero in on a 4 to 6 inch solution from Friday until Monday morning. All of this is due to what looks to be a stationary boundary that sets up Friday night and hangs around through the weekend. Multiple shortwaves traverse the boundary as it sits over the mid-state and because of this, we very well could be looking at widespread flooding issues as early as noon on Sunday. PWs continue to be anomalously high for this time of the year (forecast soundings are showing record numbers Saturday night into Sunday) and an impending low- level jet will only work to enhance rainfall rates both Saturday and Sunday. Included in all of this, I`ve maintained a slight chance of thunder starting Friday night and while this will give some a rumble of thunder, any convective enhancement will only fuel rainfall efficiency. I wouldn`t be surprised if we`re talking Flood Watches at this time tomorrow for the weekend. What could end up being a bigger issue is the runoff. Grounds likely won`t absorb all of this rainfall, which will cause quick rises on area rivers and creeks. Forecast ensembles run by our River Forecast Centers are suggesting minor and *possibly* even moderate flooding on a few rivers in Middle TN by Monday. You will need to monitor this closely if you have interests near Middle TN rivers that flood regularly. All of this should come to an end on Monday, however, the Euro continues to show yet another system moving into the area on Tuesday. While the GFS isn`t currently showing this same system, if the Euro verifies, additional flooding could be a concern. For now, enjoy the beautiful day and check back with us over the next 24-48 hours for the latest information regarding this weekend`s heavy rainfall forecast.

I was wondering what happened to you,good to see you back

Still to warm here to show those snows in Nashville,but I-40 N is colder

Looks to warm unless you are elevated ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z FEB20 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SAT 00Z 20-FEB -5.3 -5.7 128 0 33005 SAT 06Z 20-FEB -8.1 -6.3 127 0 03003 SAT 12Z 20-FEB -10.3 -5.0 128 0 13004 0.00 SAT 18Z 20-FEB 2.6 -4.4 129 752 21001 0.00 SUN 00Z 21-FEB -0.8 -2.3 130 2387 05002 0.00 SUN 06Z 21-FEB -5.6 -0.6 131 4058 15006 0.00 SUN 12Z 21-FEB -4.3 0.1 131 4436 16006 0.00 SUN 18Z 21-FEB 10.0 0.4 132 4647 18008 0.00 MON 00Z 22-FEB 5.1 0.9 133 4707 18007 0.00 MON 06Z 22-FEB 7.9 2.9 133 6512 18013 0.00 MON 12Z 22-FEB 4.8 1.1 132 5224 24007 0.27 MON 18Z 22-FEB 8.7 0.7 131 4778 29007 0.02 TUE 00Z 23-FEB 3.1 -0.1 132 4049 28004 0.00 TUE 06Z 23-FEB 0.6 2.5 132 6433 23006 0.00 TUE 12Z 23-FEB 0.8 4.8 133 7502 23006 0.00 TUE 18Z 23-FEB 13.2 6.0 134 9433 25004 0.00 WED 00Z 24-FEB 7.9 6.2 135 10031 21005 0.00 WED 06Z 24-FEB 4.4 6.6 134 9931 20007 0.00 WED 12Z 24-FEB 2.3 5.3 134 10326 19007 0.00 WED 18Z 24-FEB 16.0 6.2 135 9596 21008 0.00 THU 00Z 25-FEB 10.6 6.1 136 8827 19006 0.00 THU 06Z 25-FEB 8.3 4.5 134 7069 29003 0.00 THU 12Z 25-FEB 5.3 2.7 132 6221 35007 0.01 THU 18Z 25-FEB 11.4 2.5 133 6300 01006 0.00 FRI 00Z 26-FEB 6.9 0.0 132 5103 01006 0.00 FRI 06Z 26-FEB 4.4 1.1 131 4848 04010 0.01 FRI 12Z 26-FEB 0.7 0.2 130 2997 06009 0.49 FRI 18Z 26-FEB 3.1 1.6 131 5693 05009 0.15 SAT 00Z 27-FEB 2.9 3.4 132 8998 05004 0.01 SAT 06Z 27-FEB 4.2 2.7 133 11602 16004 0.00 SAT 12Z 27-FEB 5.5 2.1 133 10924 20006 0.03 SAT 18Z 27-FEB 10.2 4.0 133 8749 23007 0.03 SUN 00Z 28-FEB 8.0 3.1 133 6680 26005 0.00 SUN 06Z 28-FEB 4.8 1.5 133 7566 29003 0.00 SUN 12Z 28-FEB 0.4 1.5 132 7215 09004 0.00 SUN 18Z 28-FEB 14.1 4.6 134 8342 10005 0.00 MON 00Z 01-MAR 9.9 5.4 135 8915 08004 0.00 MON 06Z 01-MAR 10.7 9.5 135 8657 16009 0.00 MON 12Z 01-MAR 9.8 8.8 136 9381 16007 0.32 MON 18Z 01-MAR 16.9 11.5 136 9833 21008 0.08 TUE 00Z 02-MAR 15.2 9.7 137 9378 16006 0.02

I got my mini van out,let it sit for 45 min with the engine on then was able to pull up another car length and let it sit for 45 more.that way i was able to get a running start.My car though is stuck down the road,i should be able to get it tomorrow

Stuck for two days now

Decent shower now here http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201113.htm

If mesoscale is right it should be snow here

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 917 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-077>080-190000- /O.CAN.KOHX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210219T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0009.210218T1517Z-210219T0300Z/ Macon-Clay-Pickett-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-Putnam-Overton- Fentress-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Coffee-Warren-Grundy- Van Buren- Including the cities of Lafayette, Celina, Byrdstown, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, and Spencer 917 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Eastern Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing drizzle and light snow will be possible through the day, adding to travel difficulties. Below freezing temperatures will continue tonight and for most through the day Friday, which will keep many area roads slick.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 917 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 TNZ005>008-023>028-056>062-075-093>095-190000- /O.CAN.KOHX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210219T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0009.210218T1517Z-210219T0000Z/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Houston-Humphreys-Dickson- Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury- Marshall-Rutherford-Bedford-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Linden, Lobelville, Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Shelbyville, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski 917 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Western Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing drizzle and light snow will be possible through the day, adding to travel difficulties. Below freezing temperatures will continue tonight and for most through the day Friday, which will keep many area roads slick.

I wouldn't say that,this was our only storm of the season other than just a coating a couple times,i doubt we got 1" before this

Some reason a couple went sideways on my phone

Ice quake maybe?

Took five years to get here,moderate Ninas are the best here

Starting to come down again http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201113.htm

Ripping now here

Be bad news for Huntsville if it switches back to ZR

Seems that way

esoscale Discussion 0113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 180144Z - 180615Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible from Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky. There is some indication in observations and forecast soundings that sleet could mix in at times. Snowfall should decrease from west to east starting at midnight CST with lingering freezing rain/drizzle possible. DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy snow has developed within an area of modest 850 mb warm advection across eastern Kentucky. To the southwest, mid-level ascent has helped to produce moderate to heavy snowfall in the Memphis vicinity. This ascent will continue to overspread portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee as well as eastern Kentucky this evening. The expectation is for moderate to locally heavy snowfall to occur in this region. The 00Z BNA observed sounding showed a 0 C near-isothermal layer around 850 mb with sleet being intermittently observed in Nashville. With low-level warm advection forecast to increase during the evening, it is possible that some sleet with mix in with snow, particularly with southern extent. Snowfall rates are likely to diminish from west to east starting at about midnight CST/1 AM EST as lift/moisture in the dendritic growth layer decreases with the shortwave passage. Thereafter, lingering light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible.

All he did was show a pic,good grief